China's auto market, which has experienced a roller coaster like experience in the first half of the year, is ushering in the "golden nine silver ten" traditional auto consumption peak season.
According to the monthly data released by China Automobile Circulation Association on September 1, the market has entered a stable operation stage with the gradual release of rigid demand under the influence of the epidemic. Combined with the relevant factors of policy, purchasing power and seasonal adjustment, it is estimated that the new car trading volume in August will be 1.3 million, with a month on month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; in September, the transaction volume will reach 1.35 million vehicles, with a month on month growth of 3.85% and a year-on-year growth of 2.9%.
In view of the uncertain factors in the second half of the year, automobile production and sales are still facing greater pressure. In the whole year, affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in the first quarter, China Automobile Circulation Association still maintained the forecast of negative growth of 10% - 20% year-on-year.
The traditional sales peak season "gold nine silver ten" is also regarded as the key of this year's auto market to make up for the early sales gap. From the sales data of the first half of the year, most of the car companies' cumulative sales volume is less than half of the annual target, and the pressure will be greater in the second half of the year. Especially for the independent auto enterprises whose market share reached a new low in the first half of this year, if the sales volume does not improve, it will be very difficult for the auto enterprises to regain the "hematopoietic" ability.
What is the role of "gold, nine silver and ten"?
According to the data of previous years, the hot market of "golden nine silver ten" continued until the Spring Festival, which led to the continuous strength of China's overall automobile market.
"In recent years, the characteristics of the" golden nine silver ten "are weakening, but the sales trend under the influence of the epidemic situation this year is relatively low at the beginning of the year. With the promotion of marketing activities such as the Beijing auto show at the end of September, the sales rebound effect of the" golden nine silver ten "should be obvious." Recently, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information association, wrote an article, pointing out that in terms of the pulling speed of "gold, nine and ten silver", independent brands are the fastest, joint ventures are slightly slower, and the performance of luxury cars is stable.
In addition, Gansu, Zhengzhou and other places have introduced policies to promote automobile consumption, and the policy of new energy vehicles going to the countryside until the end of the year will promote the micro growth of market sales; Shijiazhuang, Qingdao, Yantai, Wuhan and Beijing will hold auto exhibitions in September, and more promotion activities will also stimulate the growth of Regional Automobile sales.
According to the analysis of China Automobile Circulation Association, the luxury car market is recovering well, and the growth rate is expected to slow down in September; the prices of key models of joint venture brands continue to decline, and with the further improvement of product layout, the growth can be expected in the short term; however, under the influence of joint venture brands, the survival space of independent brands is infinitely oppressed, and it is expected that the sales volume in September will decline again year-on-year.
This also means that for the independent automobile enterprises, opportunities and challenges coexist. The key to the success of the "top ten" auto sales in the whole year will be whether the "top ten" auto sales volume of the company can be achieved.
In the face of the pressure brought by the market and the coming sales peak season, many independent automobile enterprises have begun to adjust their strategy and layout, optimize product structure, integrate channels, and launch new products intensively, so as to enhance their anti risk ability in the down market.
Since September, SAIC, great wall, Chang'an, Dongfeng, Geely and other first-line independent brands have launched a number of new products, such as Roewe imax8, Haval H6, Havel DOGU, Changan new cs75plus, Dongfeng Fengshen AX7 pro, 2021 Dongfeng Fengshen AX7 and Lingke 06. With the new car on the market, manufacturers and dealers have also increased the intensity of marketing promotion and subsidies.
However, it is uncertain to what extent the "golden nine silver ten" can boost the growth of China's automobile market.
"The success of the" gold nine silver ten "depends on the effect of encouraging consumption in various regions. Although there are a lot of macro policy documents to promote consumption in the past two years, many of them focus on the purchase replacement, and lack of support for new buyers at a lower level, which also leads to structural problems in the growth of the automobile market Cui Dongshu further pointed out that the core of promoting automobile consumption is to promote the popularization of private cars, so as to have the effect of boosting the increment. Most of the current focus is on promoting demand for cars. If the car market mainly promotes the promotion of consumption, but does not encourage the car consumption of the first purchase group, it is difficult for the whole car market to increase.
Independent auto companies looking for new blue ocean
"At present, the golden age of rapid growth in China's automobile demand has come to an end, and the market is about to enter the low and medium growth stage of 200-400 cars per thousand people, and the potential growth rate of the automobile market will roughly fall back to 1.5% - 2.0%." On September 6, Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out at the 2020 China automobile industry development (TEDA) International Forum.
At the same time, with China's economy entering the stage of high-quality development, the automobile industry has also entered the stage of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. At this stage, Chinese automobile brands no longer enjoy the dividend brought by high market growth, but need to actively make adjustments, not quantity expansion, but quality improvement.
In addition, the increase of potential consumers is decreasing, with 220 million people born in the 1980s, 172 million after the 1990s and 159 million after the year 2000. The residents' consumption is in the stage of slow growth and renewal, and the effect of national policies and measures on automobile consumption is weakening.
In the past decade, the growth dividend of self owned brand cars with low-cost small cars and SUVs has disappeared. How to find a new blue ocean has become the next goal of independent brand development.
According to the "insight into 2020 China's generation Z auto consumers" jointly released by auto home and Deloitte, in the next 5 to 10 years, generation Z people born in 1995-2009 will step into the society and work in an all-round way and become the main force of automobile consumption. More data shows that there will be about 40 million potential generation Z car owners in the next five years.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, in China, the total number of generation Z (born from 1995 to 2009) is 260 million, accounting for about 19% of the total population in 2018. Among them, about 99.4 million after 1995 and 83.12 million after 2000.
Obviously, the consumer group of generation Z will undoubtedly become the key of independent brand in the "golden nine silver ten" competition.
In the face of the new trend of globalization and industrial development, "generation Z" diversified consumer demand, Great Wall Motors took the lead in opening a new round of enterprise reform, accelerating the transformation to a global technology travel company. On the occasion of its 30th anniversary, Great Wall Motors has launched system innovation and cultural upgrading, optimized its combat units based on the principle of "two breakthroughs", and will create 30-40 entrepreneurial organizations to face the "Z generation" market and users.
On the evening of September 5, the new SUV model of haver brand, the haver big dog, took the lead in pre-sale. Different from the naming method of huff h and F series, in order to be close to the consumer group of generation Z, the naming of huff big dog is completely decided by netizens' voting. In terms of product design, both the appearance and interior decoration are more close to the preferences of young people.
"With 120% conscientious insight into the needs of generation Z people, haver has created a new type of SUV for them, which seems to be innovative, but in fact it is natural." Talking about the product attributes of Hufu big dog, Wang Yinming, general manager of Great Wall Motor's Haval brand company, said at the press conference that the "houlang" people's blue ocean market is satisfied with, and will focus on the young consumer market.
Coincidentally, on the evening of September 6, the release of Lingke 06 also put generation Z users in the core position, cross-border joint beauty, food, science and technology, fitness four major fields of KOL, with the thinking mode of young consumers, released "houlang lifestyle solutions".
What's more, as products for post-95 consumers, both the huff dog and the link 06 are positioned as compact SUVs, and the price is lowered to 120000 yuan.
"Although the growth rate of SUV market has slowed down in recent two years, its proportion in the overall car market is still rising, showing strong development potential. Especially after the epidemic, SUV is the fastest recovery segment of passenger cars." On September 7, a person familiar with the automobile industry told reporters that although the competition is fierce, as the post-90s and post-00s users are becoming the main force of automobile consumption, intelligent and multi-functional small and medium-sized SUVs will still have certain market development space.
"In the context of consumption upgrading, young consumers' demand for products and personalization is more obvious. In the face of market competition, independent brand SUVs rely more on new models to drive the market and defend their positions with innovative technology. " Finally, the people said.