Four Factors Lead To The Wait-And-See Mood Of Fund Managers In The Sixth Consecutive Negative Period Of The Scientific And Technological Innovation Board

On September 9, disturbed by the correction of overseas technology stocks, Kechuang 50 fell by 3.45%, and so far it has been in negative for six consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of 9.01% in six trading days.

In recent months, the trend of the science and technology innovation board has been breathtaking, rising and falling sharply. In recent years, in the context of market correction, the decline of the science and technology innovation board index is far greater than other indexes.

Since April, the science and technology innovation board has led growth stocks out of a big market. As of July 13, Kechuang 50 rose 67.22%.

From the middle of July, under the influence of the lifting of the ban company, Kechuang 50 fell for a short time. However, since August, due to the impact of high valuation, Sino US friction and capital profit taking, Kechuang 50 has seen a significant correction again. Overall, from July 14 to September 9, Kechuang 50 fell by 24.62%.

Recently, in the context of market correction, the decline of the science and technology innovation board index is far greater than that of other indexes. People's vision

Four reasons for the decline

The 21st century economic reporter interviewed a number of institutions and summarized their views. Four major factors have led to the recent decline of the science and Technology Innovation Board: first, high valuation; second, external market disturbance; third, liquidity tightening; fourth, registration system diversion of gem.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said: "the science and technology innovation board is dominated by small cap stocks. Some time ago, small cap stocks have been stir fried more severely, but they have started to adjust recently. Moreover, the recent sharp drop in US stocks has exerted great pressure on the trend of a shares. The sci tech innovation board index has fallen sharply, which shows the risk of investing in small cap stocks, because small cap stocks have small plates, and the stock price fluctuates greatly. Once adjusted, the adjustment range is relatively large. "

In recent years, the main reason for the high risk of technology related stocks in A-share market is that the stock price of science and technology companies in the U.S. has been closely related to the spread of science and technology stocks The decline in the science and technology innovation board was driven by the fall in US technology stocks due to concerns about overvalued valuations and the grounding of a new round of fiscal stimulus. "

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu Investment Co., Ltd., pointed out: "recently, there have been adjustments in the science and technology innovation board, the growth enterprise market, and high-priced stocks. There are two main reasons. One is that the stock market rose sharply in July and August, and the valuation of individual stocks has been very high. Second, the rise of low-priced stocks on the gem is related to the registration system of gem. The market thinks that the stocks with lower prices are more suitable for the 20% rise and fall of gem Therefore, funds are generally withdrawn from high-priced stocks, that is, the science and technology innovation board, as well as some high-priced stocks on the gem to fry low-priced stocks. "

"The recent continuous adjustment of Kechuang 50 is the adjustment that the market has been waiting for for a long time." Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi said.

"At present, the short-term value of the A shares has been directly adjusted, and the short-term value of the A shares has been directly adjusted, and the short-term value of the A shares has been greatly adjusted, and the short-term value of the A shares has been directly adjusted, and the short-term value of the A shares has been greatly adjusted, and the short-term value of the A shares has been greatly adjusted Lin Jiayi said.

However, the research report data from Societe Generale Securities on September 8 showed that after the recent continuous correction, the valuation of the scientific and technological innovation board was gradually repaired, and the transaction heat declined.

From the valuation point of view, the current Kechuang 50 and the overall static PE and Pb valuations of Kechuang board are roughly between the top and the relatively neutral position, and there is a further downward trend.

From the trading point of view, the average daily turnover rates of Kechuang 50 and Kechuang board were 1.9% and 4.9%, respectively, which were near the historical lowest position.

Adjust investment strategy

After the sharp correction of the science and technology innovation board, most of the fund managers interviewed by the reporter said that they are still waiting and see that the current valuation of individual stocks of the science and technology innovation board is still too expensive, but they believe that the long-term valuation is expected to fall sharply and there are structural investment opportunities.

"At present, there is no sign of stopping the decline of the science and technology innovation board. We should further wait and see whether the market capital is a choice for the science and technology innovation board, or whether it is a sell-off situation, and then make a final conclusion." Zhao Lisong said.

"After the report, institutions are more willing to allocate some undervalued stocks. Institutions believe that cyclical stocks, or basket stocks, are safer." Zhao Lisong said.

However, Zhao Lisong believes that the investment opportunities of science and technology stocks led by the science and technology innovation board are approaching. "Taking advantage of this callback opportunity, we should still pay attention to some growth technology stocks. Although the price may be a little high now, it can still be seen that it is high in the future. After this round of adjustment, such stocks will continue to walk out of new highs in the future."

"The opportunity for structural adjustment is still there." According to Lin Jiayi.

There are two reasons for him

First of all, in terms of structural opportunities in the whole market, we can clearly see that the oversold value stocks in the United States are still making up for the increase, and the same is true for A-shares. The short-term capital of Hong Kong stocks is weak, and the rapid replenishment logic of oversold value stocks will be staged in the future. "Buy high-quality stocks, the value of the current overvalued plate is to avoid further overvaluation

Secondly, with more and more outstanding listed companies in Kechuang 50, its constituent stocks will be adjusted continuously in the future. It is not ruled out that there will be Chinese science and technology innovation giants similar to fanng in the future. "Adjustment is not a bad thing, valuation correction will bring more reasonable buying opportunities."

"Even if the investment in science and technology is underestimated, it is necessary to start from the perspective of short-term market speculation, even if the investment in science and technology is relatively low, it is necessary to start from the perspective of short-term market speculation, and it is also necessary to start from the perspective of short-term investment opportunities Lin Jiayi said.

Yang Delong suggested that "investors should control the proportion of investment in the science and technology innovation board, which should not exceed 20%, and the main positions should be allocated in Baima shares, so that the risk is low. If the stocks of science and technology innovation board are heavily invested in the stock market adjustment, they may have relatively large losses when the market is adjusted. Because many of the stocks on the science and technology innovation board are in the initial stage, they belong to the stock speculation in the future, so the current performance is poor There is not much support for its share price. "

"The organization's view on the science and technology innovation board is also based on the study of the company's fundamentals, not only on its existing performance, but also on its future growth, on the company's technical content and future growth space, but the allocation ratio is not too large." Yang Delong said.

A science and technology theme fund manager said, "previously, institutional investment was mainly concentrated in a few directions, such as medicine and semiconductor. However, after the economic recovery after the epidemic, many industries affected by the epidemic appeared opportunities. Now, the market pays more attention to the opportunities such as finance, real estate and cyclical stocks.

"In fact, we don't judge the market trend, but we judge the market structure, because it's difficult to judge the trading behavior, especially the trading behavior of some retail investors," admitted a fund manager with excellent performance in medicine

"However, with the increase of liquidity this year, the overall valuation of Kechuang board stock is on the high side. We want to find some structural opportunities in the market. In fact, I am not particularly willing to seize the opportunities of the whole board of the science and technology innovation board. I still want to return to the fundamentals of individual stocks, hoping to find companies with growth in the next three years to invest."

"In terms of long-term growth, for example, the determination of the counter cyclical growth of pharmaceutical stocks is greatly affected by the policy, but there is no big change in the policy now. Although these stocks have a certain decline, they have a bottom. On the whole, we are more focused on stock selection than positions. " The above medicine theme fund manager said.

Zhang Ting, a senior researcher at GESHANG wealth, pointed out that since most of the stocks in the science and technology innovation board are concentrated in the field of science and technology and medical, these overvalued technology and medical stocks have been greatly negatively affected in the context of rising interest rates and rumors that the United States will sanction SMIC.

"For future investment opportunities, the short-term overvalued technology and medical industry has pressure to digest the valuation. However, due to certain performance support, the correction range will not be too large, so investors can choose the opportunity to choose. However, the market volatility will still be high in the future. Investors should be prepared to bear the volatility and reduce the investment income expectation." Zhang Ting said.