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The Clothing Industry Stock Market Faces The Choice Under The Epidemic Situation "Black Swan"

2020/9/11 15:07:00 197

Mushang Group

Capital market, big consumption plate has been recognized by investors as evergreen plate. There is no other reason behind it - consumption and investment, one of which focuses on the necessity and the other on growth, and the two are superimposed. This is the root of the growing consumption concept in the current investment market.

Under the "black swan" epidemic situation, the clothing industry once entered the "ice age" as an optional consumption. However, in the big environment of "danger", many brands chose to wait for the "opportunity" and turn the crisis into the opportunity and enter a new round of strategic restructuring stage. From the case of "new retail men's wear No.1 stock" of Mu Shang Group, the clue may be seen.

1、 Inclusion in the list of Hong Kong stock connect takes effect and the rising space is expected

Due to the implementation of regular adjustment of constituent stocks in Hang Seng Composite large stock index, medium-sized stock index and small stock index, the list of Hong Kong stock connect stocks has been adjusted since September 7, and Muchang Group Holdings (1817. HK) has been transferred in, which has taken effect on the same day.

Based on the role of Hong Kong stock connect as a bridge between the capital markets of Hong Kong and the mainland, these new stars included in the Zi list of Hong Kong stock connect are very likely to be favored by southbound funds, and the rising space is expected. In recent years, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has attracted 19.3% of the total turnover volume year by year.

In addition to the new stimulation brought by the favorable factors, looking back on the epidemic situation in the past six months as a touchstone is enough to verify the brand potential of Muchang group.

From the current basic logic point of view, although restricted by the overall market and the performance of Hong Kong Stock clothing plate, the current stock price performance of Muchang group is still good.

On January 2, this year, the opening price of Muchang group was HK $7.75. On April 15, it dropped to HK $5.41, then rose to HK $7.64, and even rose to an all-time high of HK $9.04 at the end of May. Recently, the average market value of the group was close to HK $6.5 billion.

Behind the huge net purchase of 246 million funds in the past 60 days, it also represents the market's expectation that the industry will go out of the bottom under the influence of the epidemic situation and the performance of Moshan group will be better in the second half of the year.

In addition, the transfer to Hong Kong stock connect fully shows that the domestic and foreign capital markets fully affirm the stock liquidity, market value, competitive advantage and market position of mushang group. This positive is undoubtedly a catalyst for the stock price, and the group will also be expected to enter the high light period of value remodeling and market value expansion.

2、 Innovation driven + resource endowment, forming endogenous growth engine

There must be its own development logic behind the pursuit of capital in the fierce "pain period" of the industry under the epidemic situation. The reason lies in the fact that "to strike iron, we need to be hard".

On August 28, Muchang Group Holdings released its first half results. According to the China Daily News, the company's revenue reached 1.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%. In the first half of the year, the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia and the complicated and changeable domestic and foreign environment brought heavy damage to the clothing industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of 2020, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the national quota decreased by 19.6% year-on-year. Under the "dark moment" of the whole industry, it is reasonable that the achievements of the Chinese newspaper of the group are also reasonable.

However, it is not difficult to find the bright spot by digging deep into the Chinese newspaper of mushang group. The epidemic has brought great changes to the clothing industry, prompting it to rush to the new track that will be produced in the future.

The strategy and operation mode of revenue growth driven by the number of stores are no longer suitable for the current market trend and demand, and the underlying structure of retail has changed. Mushang Group continues the development strategy of "optimizing and integrating existing stores", focusing on building a digital platform for smart retail.

According to the division of sales channels, the revenue of offline channels of Muchang group declined on a year-on-year basis. The revenue from online channels accounted for 60.8% of the total revenue, reaching 660 million yuan. In the same period in 2019, it was 33.4%. In this epidemic, the pioneers of digital transformation have highlighted the importance of "technical strength" with good performance. For example, many leading brands maintain a high growth rate of online revenue, and have strong ability to resist the epidemic situation. They can alleviate the impact of offline sales through online efforts.

As early as 2016, Muchang group launched online and offline, and explored new channels such as social networking and live broadcasting. Through the development of digital enabling enterprises, it accelerated its evolution, and continued to make efforts in the aspects of intelligence, digitization, informatization and digitalization. At present, the company's digital transformation has entered the harvest period. The latest report card comes from the 818 Shopping Festival. The total sales volume of Moshan group has exceeded 60 million yuan.

It is also mentioned in the China news that the group will adopt a series of growth strategies, including actively expanding new innovative online channels such as online live broadcast channels and wechat apps, and constantly enhance the group's competitive advantages in traditional online channels such as tmall, Taobao and vipshop, and the two pronged approach will open up new growth space.

From the perspective of brands, GXG, the flagship men's wear brand, is still "a big player", contributing more than 70% of the company's revenue in 2020. In addition, GXG jeans, gxg.kids, a children's wear brand with GXG design concept, yatlas, and 2XU, also play a key role in supporting the company's total revenue.

GXG was once known as one of the more profitable fashion men's wear brands in China, and has made great achievements in the online field where the clothing market in China has grown fastest in recent years. According to the data, GXG once again ranked first in the category of online sales in the double 11 in 2019. GXG, which plays the role of C in the brand matrix of Muchang group, can attract attention to other brands by virtue of its brand influence and appeal and high fan loyalty.

Multi brand development strategy can cover different levels of market consumers, at the same time, expand the company's market map, respond to environmental changes timely and quickly, and have the viability of the new normal in the future.

3、 "Long distance runner" enters the stage of new value evaluation

The logic behind the crisis lies in the fact that the group can see the crisis and the logic behind it.

In addition, several favorable factors also make the group worthy of attention:

The domestic women's wear market is becoming more and more saturated. With the rise of male consumers' fashion consciousness, men's wear market demand has begun to accelerate growth and is becoming a new potential stock. In addition to GXG, Muchang group will also present new sales potential in the industry by positioning urban commuting style and 2XU to develop sports leisure wear and sportswear through yatlas.

Slow recovery is the main theme of the current clothing industry. From the data of listed companies and related industries, with the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control situation and the gradual efforts of various macro-control policies, the supply capacity and industrial chain operation of the clothing industry have basically returned to normal. Although the main operating indicators in the first half of the year are still in the negative growth range, the decline rate continues to narrow.

Ipsos, an international market research organization, recently released the latest global consumer confidence index survey results.

Policy increases, the overall market environment, consumption is also recovering. After the end of the epidemic, consumption will generally have a retaliatory rebound. Optimistic analysis, clothing consumption will also have a phased rise. After all, after the epidemic, disasters will affect people's consumption concept to a certain extent, and improve the pursuit of health, aesthetics and quality of life.

From the perspective of capital, the global capital is overflowing, and the principle of housing and housing is not to be speculated in China, so a large amount of capital will flow into the stock market. The new long-term funds themselves prefer relatively undervalued high-quality stocks. And consumer sector valuations have always been attractive. Another important reason for the popularity of consumer companies is that the overall resilience of the consumer sector is strong, most of which can survive the economic cycle fluctuations and maintain relatively stable growth.

In any case, Muchang group is consolidating the existing and accumulating aftereffect through a series of positive measures, such as creating hard core products, accumulating brand volume, innovating marketing mode and stabilizing cash flow, which will lay a good foundation for the recovery and development in the second half of the year. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of fundamentals or all kinds of environment, although the short-term pressure of the group, but the medium and long-term probability can bring alpha benefits.

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