Chengdu, Shenzhen And Other Real Estate Market Regulation To Tighten The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Or Welcome The Wave Of Sales Promotion

Since the beginning of September, many places across the country have introduced property market regulation policies and superimposed new financing policies, and the overall situation is tightening.

The real estate market is a situation of both ice and fire. In some cities, new houses have been robbed, such as Foshan and Shenzhen; while in some cities, transactions and prices have fallen and continued to be depressed.

In this context, real estate companies have adjusted the sales strategy of the fourth quarter. Under the impact of the epidemic, most of the real estate enterprises achieved less than half of the annual target in the first half of the year. In the remaining three months, the "golden nine silver ten" has become the key to each real estate enterprise to "rush for income".

At the beginning of September, Evergrande called out a 30% discount sales promotion, which was the first shot to snatch. As most of the real estate companies in this year's volume are concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the industry is expected to see a large-scale promotion wave in the property market.

Control and add code

Chengdu, a hot western city, suddenly introduced a new policy of property market regulation on September 14. The new deal contains 15 items, covering six aspects, including strengthening land market regulation, implementing financial Prudential Management, supporting reasonable self housing demand, improving housing regulation policy, strengthening market supervision and monitoring, and strengthening public opinion propaganda and guidance.

The key point of Chengdu's "15 new real estate policies" is to adjust the VAT exemption period of individual housing transfer from two years to five years.

Yan Yuejin, director of E-House research, said that the VAT policy is a new policy trend for local regulation and control this year. At present, the whole country, including Shenzhen, Wuxi, Shenyang and Chengdu, has adjusted the value-added tax policy from the past "full 2" to "full 5".

He believes that similar policies are expected to be easily adopted and imitated by the following localities, which will help prevent the "fast in and fast out" real estate speculation and make the buying behavior more rational.

In addition to Chengdu, on September 12, Changzhou also issued a new policy, requiring that the newly purchased commercial housing in the urban area can only be traded four years after obtaining the property right certificate; the minimum down payment for two housing loans is 60%.

After the "15 · 15" of the national real estate market, the new policy of "buying a real estate" in Shenzhen was issued again.

On the evening of September 10, Shenzhen Central Branch of the Central Bank of the people's Bank of China, Shenzhen regulatory bureau of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau jointly issued a document to set up a marriage information inquiry mechanism to inquire about the marital status of the borrower and the number of housing units in the names of the family members (including the borrower, spouse and minor children) of the borrower, as the basis for loan audit, and to implement differentiated housing loan processing.

Yan Yuejin said that in fact, in the past, fake divorce certificates were widely used in Shenzhen. In other words, the purpose of such divorces is to defraud the first house purchase qualification, so the new deal needs to trace the ownership of real estate in the past three years.

Through the practice of "mortgage evasion" and "mortgage evasion", the real estate can be obtained through the way of "low mortgage" and "false real estate".

Judging from the above policies, the keynote of regulation and control is "supporting reasonable demand for self owned housing and curbing speculation in real estate". There are both tightening and moderately relaxing areas, but the overall policy is mainly tightening.

At the same time, real estate financing and capital management and control are unprecedented severe. On September 14, at a regular briefing by the State Council, pan Gongsheng, vice president of the people's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of foreign exchange, responded to market rumors of new financing rules.

He said that the fund supervision and financing rules of real estate enterprises have been brewing for nearly two years, with the aim of enhancing the marketization, regularization and transparency of financing management of real estate enterprises, and correcting the blind expansion behavior of real estate enterprises.

Zhongyuan Real Estate believes that the first half of 2020, the most relaxed regulation of real estate, has passed, and the tightening of regulation is inevitable. It is expected that more than 30 cities will issue real estate policies with different tightening intensity to maintain market stability.

Price war on the verge?

Whether it is the tightening of regulatory policies or the "three lines" of financing, all bring great pressure to the annual sales target of each real estate enterprise, and make this year's "gold nine silver ten" become the key to "rush to collect" for each real estate enterprise.

According to the three red lines "treading on the line", real estate enterprises will be divided into four grades: red, orange, yellow and green. If all three lines touch the line, it will be red.

According to the data of the interim report in 2020, among the 220 A-share, Hong Kong stock and US stock listed real estate enterprises, 70% of them are "treading on the line". Among them, Evergrande, rongchuang, Fuli and Greenland have all exceeded them.

Guo Shiliang, an economist and financial commentator, believes that the tightening of financing rules has a great test on the cash flow and debt ratio of real estate enterprises. Real estate enterprises need to speed up cash recovery through discount promotion in the "golden nine silver ten" and gradually reduce the net debt ratio and other financial indicators to improve the risk control ability of real estate enterprises.

On September 7, Evergrande announced a 30% discount on 600 real estate projects across the country, which launched the first shot in the "price war", striving to achieve the sales target of 200 billion yuan in September and October.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that Evergrande, as a leading real estate enterprise in the industry, has been in the habit of discount and promotion for many years, and has taken the lead in this node, and more real estate enterprises will follow up.

On September 10, it was rumored that country garden would also be on sale. Country garden said that the company has been maintaining a stable operating cash flow, and there is no plan to significantly reduce the price and promote sales for nationwide projects.

However, in some cities and projects, country garden still adopts flexible pricing strategy. On September 13, sanlonghui of country garden in Chencun, Foshan opened for the first time. The official opening price was much lower than the previous blowing price of 26000-29000 / flat, with the lowest price of 21000 / Ping. On the opening day, the discount was about 9.1%.

Country garden sanlonghui is located on the top of Guangzhou Metro Line 7 and Guangfo ring line. It is planned to be a TOD project integrating commerce, residence and office, with obvious location advantages.

Recently, the state-owned state-owned enterprise with abundant funds has also joined the ranks of preferential housing sales, promoting property sales through 9.9% discount, fancy relief, subsidies and other benefits.

It can be predicted that in a period of time in the future, the promotion efforts of various real estate enterprises will increase, and the number of real estate enterprises following the promotion of Evergrande will increase significantly.

At least half of the sales targets of Housing enterprises in the first half of the year were not met due to the lack of sales targets in the first half of the year. Even, some enterprises have lowered the sales target set at the beginning of the year, but the completion rate is still not up to the standard. Most of the sales pressure is concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, the sales volume and sales target of the top 50 real estate enterprises in the second half of the year are several trillion.

Zhang Wei believes that the real estate market has recovered faster than the average level of more than 8% in the same period of last year.

As the recent real estate regulation and control policy is also relatively strict, the real estate market regulation has always adhered to the principle of "housing does not stir up", to prevent the rapid growth of house prices, but also to avoid big ups and downs, so it is not realistic to expect a substantial decline in house prices. Therefore, it can be judged that house prices will maintain a stable and partial decline in the overall pattern during the period of gold, silver and ten.

Yan Yuejin also believes that there will be sales promotion in the fourth quarter of the property market. Most real estate enterprises will give interest and discount in terms of price, but there will be no large-scale price reduction.