Market Analysis: Cotton Market Is Still Full Of Contradictions
After a substantial adjustment last week, Zheng cotton showed signs of stabilization. Although the upward structure seems to be in good condition, under the background of mixed information in the future market, whether the overall operation of the domestic cotton textile industry can support the continuous rise of cotton prices?
Since the beginning of this year, a professional in Shandong textile industry said that it is still difficult to operate textile enterprises. In terms of the cost of cotton yarn of RMB 18800 / T / T and the cost of cotton yarn sales of RMB 18800-72000 / T, many enterprises have a loss of RMB 1.8800/t and cotton yarn sales cost of RMB 1.8800/t. Due to the interference of many internal and external uncertain factors, there are only some orders in May in 2020. After July to August, the market order decreases and the sales progress slows down, which makes it difficult for upstream and downstream.
The person in charge of a raw material company believes that at present, it is in the new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation and mutual promotion, and the downstream yarn and cloth are at the edge of profit and loss or loss, and the pattern of oversupply in the cotton market is difficult to change in the short term. From the cotton production capacity, cotton fiber, chemical fiber, cotton production capacity, cotton fiber, chemical fiber, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton, cotton.
Upstream cotton professionals believe that the dominant factor of this round of cotton market is the epidemic situation, from the industrial point of view, it is the epidemic situation that leads to the reduction of consumption. Although the cases are at a new high, there is also good news of vaccine test. The impact of the epidemic on the economy is weakening, and the textile operating rate has returned to 70-75%. The downstream consumption gradually recovered, the overall inventory and production and sales rate were improving, and the feedback to the cotton price was from 10000 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton. However, there are also many contradictions in the market: first, the contradiction between the undervalued cotton price and the industry, that is, the rise of cotton price deviates from the weak trend of cotton yarn price; second, the contradiction between futures and spot prices; third, the contradiction between internal and external price difference; Fourth, the contradiction between cotton and cotton yarn profits.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the cotton price has been rising obviously, and the low point has been rising continuously. Of course, there are still many contradictions and uncertainties between the market and the cotton textile industry. Industry insiders believe that the cotton price will maintain the volatility in the short term, and there is a need for repair in the medium and long term.
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