"Dionysius was fortunate to be a great man of power and wealth."
In Italy in the fourth century B.C., there was a courtier named Damocles who liked to flatter the king at that time.
Finally, he got the chance to exchange identities with the king. At the dinner party, drinking, singing and dancing, Damocles was immersed in it.
"What's this?" he looked up and saw a sword dangling from a horse's mane. He was completely lost.
He didn't want to be lucky again.
From then on, the sword of bingdamocles was used to symbolize the fear and uneasiness before the crisis.
Now, it appears on the top of 200000 foreign trade people.
I'm going bankrupt
Foreign trade is too difficult. This network catchword, poke in how many people's tears?
At the beginning of 2020, the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, foreign businessmen are not at all secure.
"In my hometown, landslides happen every spring when there is a lot of rain. In the rain wash, the mountain seems to be split, the soil fell to the ground, blocking the road
In the memory of the boss of a foreign trade company in Guangzhou, it was a landslide and a disaster.
Unexpectedly, he witnessed a "landslide" again in 2020. It was not the rain that caused the mountains to collapse, but the new pneumonia.
"Twelve, then sixteen." The factory originally set the eighth day after the new year's rework time has been delayed.
"Looking at the mountain of cloth in the workshop, I felt unprecedented pressure." For more than ten years in foreign trade, he has survived major or minor catastrophic industrial changes. But this time, he had never heard of all the good orders cancelled.
Coincidentally, the industry has entered the frozen period, and sorrow is everywhere.
In the research and survey of foreign trade enterprises, 59% of enterprises' cash flow can not last for three months, among which 14% of foreign trade enterprises' cash flow has been unable to maintain normal operation. It is expected that in the third quarter, there will be a wave of foreign trade enterprises closing down.
"Compared with the same period in previous years, product demand is very weak." Lu Bin, CEO of Dongguan Hongjin, said that the company's main packaging orders fell sharply in the first half of the year.
Soon, Europe and the United States became the new disaster area of the epidemic, which also increased the instability of China's foreign trade import and export and the global industrial chain. Foreign trade enterprises were facing the double impact of supply chain and demand shrinkage.
There is no difference between the destruction and attack of the epidemic, and the unprecedented chain effect is gradually spreading. How can we be lucky?
"For orders shipped to sea, if you say no, you don't want them." General manager of Ningbo Tianhong Stationery Co., Ltd.
"It's not the same in every market." A foreign trade business owner engaged in the sales of tourism products said that at present, some retailers in Europe have planned to place orders, but the North American market is not optimistic.
"For the difficulties caused by this, we have to think repeatedly about how to break the situation next time if we encounter a similar situation." Now, business owners have been used to confirm with customers whether they can receive goods, and say hello in advance to avoid the situation of empty money and goods.
In 2020, if we say that the whole industry is in an unprecedented depression, foreign trade will be "severely beaten", and only a few can "sustain".
200000 foreign trade people, where to go?
Each has his own tricks
Hit the south wall and turn back.
Some have lost too much blood and are in urgent need of digesting the inventory; some have a sharp decrease in export and need to find a new growth mode; some are active choices in pursuit of added value
Looking around, foreign trade people are busy looking for a home.
Masks are versatile?
Laoliu is the boss of a backpack factory in Zhongshan, Guangdong Province. As early as early as February, seeing that the foreign trade situation was not good, Laoliu began to set up production lines.
"We have converted two workshops into dust-free workshops, OEM disposable medical masks, more than 20 employees work in three shifts, and the daily output exceeds 200000, and all of them will be exported after the production is completed." Another foreign trade company also said frankly, now undertake epidemic prevention supplies orders, can give the company some new income.
"The blowout of demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks shows that China's foreign trade enterprises have high market sensitivity and strong adaptability. At the same time, we should also realize that the export growth of epidemic prevention materials is unsustainable. "
Lu Bin pointed out that after all, epidemic prevention materials are only short-term special market demand, "swarm" is bound to bring a series of problems.
To make matters worse, on April 13, China's Ministry of Commerce stopped the export of two anti epidemic products enterprises due to product quality problems.
In order to produce masks as soon as possible, we spent more than 6 million Laoliu before and after. Finally, we got the masks. In the face of increasingly fierce competition, it would take at least half a year to recover the cost.
Of course, Lao Liu's "mask business" is also in trouble.
From B to C
According to statistics, in order to "survive", 19% of enterprises have chosen to actively try cross-border e-commerce and upgrade their business model.
Saengq, formerly a large foreign trade OEM factory, began to embrace cross-border e-commerce with the improvement of the global supply chain and the outbreak of the epidemic. It entered the Southeast Asian market through shopee platform and opened its shop for only 30 days. Based on the sales data and high store scores, saengq became the preferred seller of shopee.
Chaoshan Jieyang women's clothing and home furnishing industry belt is also a typical case of current transformation of cross-border e-commerce.
"This is a new trend, a new idea, and a huge cake."
"Frankly speaking, this is a bridge for the state to give cross-border e-commerce more rapid customs clearance and export." On the other hand, it can be understood that the nature of tmall's foreign trade is similar to that of a big foreign trade company, and that it has not changed its business model.
At present, the cross-border e-commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone has become a new highland of innovation and entrepreneurship. Each comprehensive pilot zone has set up 37 incubation bases and platforms such as "maker town" and "maker space". In 2019, more than 6000 cross-border e-commerce enterprises will be added.
However, for foreign trade enterprises, cross-border e-commerce is actually a strange species.
We are not familiar with the management of logistics and transportation chain, because we are not familiar with the data management and management of Tianhong
It is the end of the vast majority of the brave.
From outside to inside
When the whole network is talking about the transformation of foreign trade to domestic sales, what are we discussing?
According to the survey of 700 foreign trade enterprises conducted by the China Council for the promotion of international trade, nearly half of the enterprises have strong intention to transfer to domestic sales.
"Switching from export to domestic sales is an alternative and a new topic." Said Kong Sijun, President of Fuzhou import and Export Chamber of Commerce.
For foreign traders, "turning to domestic sales" is not a new trend. Whenever the financial crisis or the deterioration of the external market, there is always a discussion on the domestic market.
"If a pure export-oriented enterprise turns to domestic sales, if it has no domestic trade experience and lacks domestic marketing channels, it is still very difficult to suddenly switch from export to domestic sales."
Shi Ping, general manager of Fuzhou Hongguan Zhisheng import and Export Co., Ltd., believes that domestic sales are more suitable for those enterprises whose orders have been cancelled, a large amount of inventory is left behind, and they have already done 2C end and cross-border retail.
"It is difficult to establish a stable channel in the short term, but also to maintain a large enough order volume." According to Yang Xiao, the foreign trade owner of clothing business, it is difficult to find stable customers for those who suddenly "break into" the domestic market.
Another outstanding short board is that the factory has been receiving foreign trade orders for a long time, "closed eye production" also makes Yang Xiao lack the design ability of the domestic market.
"To switch to domestic sales, we need to have enough understanding and Research on the domestic market."
Huang Yange, general manager of Urumqi Shengchun Textile Co., Ltd., also said that domestic sales are mainly based on wholesalers or e-commerce. However, due to the lack of brands, talents and supporting facilities, it is difficult to contact the resources of these outlets, and blind entry is bound to lose money.
"Domestic and foreign sales are quite different in product design, production, sales and other aspects. They can't be transferred if they want to."
Looking in the opposite direction, the cries of the frustrated are much louder than the cheers of the winners.
I'm "Li Jiaqi"
First of all, domestic sales need smooth and "quantitative" channels.
According to the implementation opinions of the general office of the State Council on supporting the transformation of export to domestic sales recently issued by the Ministry of Commerce, a nationwide consumption promotion activity will be held in the second half of the year. Pedestrian streets and key business districts will be used to broaden domestic sales channels of export products, and help foreign trade enterprises to further connect with large domestic trade circulation enterprises and e-commerce platform enterprises.
Many cities have also set up special funds to vigorously support new formats such as live e-commerce. For example, Dongguan, which has a "world factory", has built a live e-commerce platform for enterprises in view of the shrinking overseas demand, and accelerated the formation of a localized domestic sales cluster of Dongguan goods through online red tape.
"Cooperate with domestic online celebrities to distribute goods through live broadcasting." The export business of Guangdong Jinhui knife and scissors Co., Ltd. accounted for 80% of the total, and orders dropped sharply. In March, the company began to rely on e-commerce channels to switch to domestic sales. The sales volume of six cutting tools exceeded 200000 yuan in one marketing internal purchase meeting.
"Through the live plant exploration and product introduction, the customer feedback is quite good, and the platform data and transformation has obvious effect." After two live broadcasts at Alibaba international station, Lu Bin also saw remarkable results.
Lu Bin said that during the epidemic period, the live broadcast was a good solution to the customers' demand for on-the-spot inspection of the factory, understanding of the production process and product characteristics, which enhanced the trust of customers and the conversion of orders.
"Domestic foreign trade business owners should not be new to the live broadcasting industry, but when it comes to export, looking to the world is a great challenge, which can not be solved by one or ten li Jiaqi."
A foreign trade boss in Ningbo stressed that the premise of doing a good job in live broadcasting is to do an in-depth study according to the local culture, customs and consumption patterns, and suit the remedy to the case.
"Although the current webcast is very popular, the more lively it is, the more insidious it is. If you don't calm down and make clear the assessment, you'll be in a hurry, and it's likely that a new crop of leeks will be cut."
If finance "cross the border"
Any enterprise in the foreign trade circle can't sing a "monologue".
***China has become the fifth most commonly used payment currency in the world. A shares have been included in the MSCI index. 25 overseas clearing banks have signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 36 countries. In recent years, China has made remarkable progress in integrating into the international financial market.
However, once a large number of real-time transactions between enterprises and cross-border trade clearing and settlement are involved, financial services beyond space and higher level are still in short supply.
"In the medium and long term, cross-border payment itself has a very thick layer of value." Deng Guobiao, founder and CEO of xtransfer, judged that the market scale of B2B is dozens of times that of B2C. However, there are still huge pain points in cross-border payment itself, and the challenges need 5-10 years' efforts of enterprises.
"In the past, opening an account in an overseas bank has become a good choice for foreign traders because of its flexible allocation of funds. Nowadays, the threshold of opening an overseas bank account is getting higher and higher, and the voice of complaining about the account being closed is also growing. "
"The most terrifying thing is that this wave of closures is not a" sudden rise ", but a" general trend. " Deng Guobiao pointed out that it is difficult for traditional banks to provide good cross-border financial services to SMEs based on the comprehensive consideration of anti money laundering risk control cost and business income.
It is understood that xtransfer officially launched a foreign trade collection account in 2018, with partners including DBS Bank, Citibank and Standard Chartered Bank, etc., and has served more than 70000 foreign trade SMEs.
"Anti money laundering is also a necessary work."
Since 2012, the United States, Britain, Germany and other countries have successively broken out bank money laundering punishment cases, which has sounded the alarm bell to financial institutions all over the world, and the examination of overseas bank accounts will be intensified with the improvement of overall compliance requirements.
Deng Guobiao stressed that xtransfer will enter Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam and other currency control countries in the future to solve the problem of local end-to-end currency declaration, and carry out anti money laundering work adapted to local conditions.
Self confidence, self reflection
Through the cold of late spring.
At present, China's foreign trade industry has come to a new crossroads amid the clamor of "made in China" and the whole external market "decoupling".
On August 14, the National Bureau of statistics released a report on the operation of the national economy, which showed that imports and exports increased by 6.5% year-on-year in July, of which exports increased by 10.4%, achieving positive growth for four consecutive months.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said at a press conference of the office of State Administration of Statistics: "the situation of foreign trade this year is generally better than expected."
"China took the lead in experiencing the changes in the epidemic situation, so no one knows more about what people in all countries need next than China." Li Kuiwen, director of the statistical analysis department of the General Administration of customs and spokesman, is also confident of stabilizing the basic foreign trade market.
On the surface, the situation is getting warmer, but the change of data always lags behind the development of reality.
In the complex and severe external environment, uncertainty may be the only certainty.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the global trade in goods will decrease by 13% to 32% in 2020, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and development (UNCED) is expected to drop by 20%. Some studies have also pointed out that a considerable part of the current export growth of private enterprises is concentrated on the previous order replenishment and inventory digestion.
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, also said that the peak of the world epidemic has not yet emerged, the economy has not reached the bottom, and the basis for improving global trade does not exist.
"We should also be vigilant against us containment of China's technology and finance."
Ju Jiandong, Professor of Wudaokou School of finance, Tsinghua University and director of cifer of National Institute of finance, Tsinghua University, judged that the "precise financial blockade" of China's specific industries, key enterprises and key individuals by the United States is a high probability event.
"There are no opportunities for old foreign trade, but opportunities for new foreign trade."
As Zhang Kuo, general manager of Alibaba international station, said, the epidemic has given birth to the digital direction in the next 10 years.
For foreign trade enterprises, it is far from time to rest assured.
The smartest foreign trade bosses, who seem to be keeping their wits down, are actually waiting for opportunities.
"A grain of dust of the times, falling on one's head, is a mountain."
In retrospect, there are not many turning points in my life.
The afternoon when I decided to drop out of school, the bus to Guangzhou, the fellow townsman who took me into foreign trade, and the new pneumonia
In the extraordinary year 2020, foreign trade people will not accept their fate.
Yes, this time, my foreign trade boss didn't run away.