Detailed Explanation Of Textile And Garment Foreign Trade In The First 7 Months, Several Major Events In The "Post Epidemic" Era Should Be Prepared As Early As Possible

Overview of the situation

Orders of large-scale enterprises are gradually recovering, and uncertainty has become an important factor hindering enterprises from receiving orders.

In the second quarter, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 19.2%, among which the exports of yarn, fabric and needle woven clothing, which are traditional bulk commodities, decreased by 28.5% in total except epidemic prevention materials. In July at the beginning of the third quarter, the recovery of the foreign demand market led to the rapid narrowing of the decline rate of commodity exports to 10%. In line with the data, I will learn from enterprise research that at present, large enterprises generally reflect that orders other than epidemic prevention materials have begun to recover or even saturate, and the production and export of enterprises have gradually returned to the right track. However, due to the new requirements of importers on payment terms and payment methods, enterprises are worried that the epidemic situation in foreign countries has not been fully alleviated, which will lead to the risk of collection Do not dare to accept long single, large single, prefer to accept small single, short single. Therefore, it is predicted that if the global epidemic situation continues to ease before the end of the year, exports will continue to stabilize in the third to fourth quarters, and the overall trend will continue to improve, but the rebound speed and strength will not be too fast.

With the recovery of industrial transfer momentum, Chinese textile enterprises need to prepare for the "post epidemic" era in advance.

During the global epidemic period, due to the dependence on China's epidemic prevention materials and trust in China's strong and stable supply capacity, the main markets temporarily stopped the pace of outward purchase and returned the focus of procurement to China. The market share of Chinese products was once high. With the gradual alleviation of the epidemic situation, the European Union, the United States, Japan and other markets have turned their attention to ASEAN, South Asia, and countries and regions with geographical advantages, and the market share of Chinese products has fallen again. Strong signals from large-scale clothing suppliers such as Shanghai have been transferred to the shopping center. Chinese textile enterprises should pay attention to the change of purchasing trend, lay out in advance and make coping strategies.

Political factors make China's textile and garment industry chain face more challenges, so it is imperative to establish regional industry alliance.

With the deepening of political intervention in the market, the main developed countries have further accelerated the process of market procurement diversification driven by political factors. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States, the European Union and other developed countries realized the lack of their own industries, and gradually attracted ASEAN, India and other places to form and expand their regional industrial chain layout to form a confrontation with China. At the same time, although the upstream and downstream supporting facilities are not perfect, and the main intermediate products still rely on imports from China, in order to protect their own industries, ASEAN countries have also launched trade remedy investigations on China's textiles, and the situation is getting more and more intense. In the face of multiple pressures, the Chinese government, intermediary organizations and enterprises need to work together to cope with them. We will accelerate the negotiation of free trade agreements or upgrade negotiations, establish a good open and business environment, and form cooperative partnership with neighboring countries and countries along the belt and road. Regional industrial alliance should be established to form a benign pattern dominated by mutual benefit, win-win and coordinated development. While helping neighboring countries to improve their industrial base, China will gradually become a high value-added industrial center focusing on design and R & D.

　　2

Trade data

In July, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 412.93 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.4% over the same period of last year (the same below). Among them, the export was 237.63 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.2%, and the import was 175.3 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.4%. The trade surplus of the month was 62.33 billion US dollars. From January to July, the total value of imports and exports was 2442.63 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, including exports of 1336.38 billion US dollars, a decrease of 4.1%, and imports of 1106.25 billion US dollars, a decrease of 75.7%, realizing a cumulative surplus of 230.13 billion US dollars.

In July, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached 33.79 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.2%, including exports of 31.77 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.5%, imports of 2.03 billion US dollars, down 13%, the trade surplus of the month was 29.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.1%. From January to July 2020, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached 172.08 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Among them, exports were 159.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 12.98 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10%; the accumulated trade surplus was 146.12 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4%.

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Trade characteristics

The import and export characteristics of textiles and clothing from January to July 2020 are as follows:

　　1

Exports grew in April in a row, and commodities showed a warming trend

Exports of textiles and bulk goods increased by 15.0% from April to July, respectively, and the export of major commodities increased by 15.0% from April to July, respectively. Although the export volume of yarn, fabric and clothing was still negative growth in July, the decline rate was significantly narrowed compared with the previous period.

　　2

General trade exports maintained a rapid growth, and private enterprises led the country.

General trade exports achieved double-digit growth for four consecutive months, with an increase of 20.3% in July and an accumulative growth of 8.9% from January to July. Processing trade continued to decline, with a decrease of 24% in July, a slight slowdown compared with the previous period, and a cumulative decrease of 30.8% from January to July.

Private enterprises continued to play a leading role. Exports in July and January to July increased by 14.9% and 8.2% respectively, which had a significant positive impact on national exports. The cumulative exports of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 1.4% and 4.5% respectively from January to July. The decline was mainly concentrated in February to may, and gradually rebounded in June and July, and recovered growth year-on-year.

　　3

Clothing exports to the main markets will gradually pick up, and the direction of international market procurement will return to normal track with the improvement of the epidemic situation.

In July, the consumption demand in the international market picked up slightly. Compared with the previous period, China's export situation of key commodity clothing from the three major markets, the EU, the United States and Japan, was improved, and the volume of export increased month on month, and the year-on-year decrease rates were 2.5, 0.3 and 8.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. From January to July, China's clothing exports to the three major markets fell by 12.5%, 27% and 12.5% respectively, with the largest decline in the United States.

In July, the export of epidemic prevention materials to all regions except the United States decreased significantly. The exports to the European Union, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN decreased by 30.5%, 15% and 50% respectively on a month on month basis. Due to the fact that the epidemic situation has not been effectively alleviated in the United States, the demand for epidemic prevention materials in the United States increased by 1% month on month.

With the alleviation of the epidemic situation, the purchase of clothing products in various markets has gradually returned to the track of diversification. From the import data of major markets, the proportion of clothing imports from China in the United States and Japan reached a peak of 60.4% and 74% respectively in May, but then gradually fell back to 34.1% and 52.7% respectively in July, and the share of ASEAN expanded again in the same period.

　　4

Epidemic prevention materials are still the main force driving export growth, and the export situation of traditional bulk commodities has slightly improved.

In July, the world has not yet stepped out of the shadow of the epidemic situation. Although the export of epidemic prevention materials dropped slightly compared with may and June at the peak, it still maintained the characteristics of large-scale and high growth, and was still the main force driving the growth of export. In the same month, the export of epidemic prevention materials was 8.91 billion US dollars, down 17.4% from the previous month. The total exports reached 47.65 billion US dollars, accounting for 30% of the total exports.

In July, the market demand showed a slight pick-up. Except for epidemic prevention materials, the export decline of bulk commodities, including yarn, fabrics and knitwear clothing, slowed down compared with the previous period, but still failed to recover growth. From January to July, the cumulative decline rates of the three categories of commodities were 31.3%, 27.4% and 18.1% respectively.

　　5

Guangdong's exports rebounded rapidly, and Beijing and Hubei continued to grow at a high level.

Since the second quarter, the performance of Guangdong has been obvious. From April to July, the export of Guangdong has achieved rapid growth continuously, with the growth rate climbing to 60.4% in July, and the cumulative growth rate from January to July is 20.5%, ranking first among the top five export provinces and cities. Zhejiang and Jiangsu decreased by 5.4% and 7.6% respectively, while Shandong and Shanghai increased by 6.3% and 15.8% respectively.

The export heat of Beijing and Hubei remained unchanged, with an increase of 288.2% and 142.8% in July, and 267% and 131.5% respectively from January to July.

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The trend of declining import is still not necessary.

In contrast with exports, textile and clothing imports continued to decline for four months, and still did not show a warming trend. In July, it decreased by 13%, including 20.2% for yarn fabrics and 11.6% for knitted and woven garments. From January to July, the cumulative import decreased by 10%, including 27% for yarn fabrics and 10% for knitted and woven garments.

There is a certain correlation between the current import and the later export, especially the slow recovery of intermediate goods import, to a certain extent, indicates that the clothing export in the later period may be weak and lack of growth momentum.

　　7

Cotton imports rebounded rapidly, with us cotton accounting for more than one third.

In July, cotton imports continued to rise rapidly, with 148000 tons of imports in the month, up 64% month on month compared with June, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 9.2%. From January to July, the total import volume was 1.047 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, the United States was the largest source of imports, with 391000 tons of imports from the United States, an increase of 40.4%, and the proportion of American cotton rose to 37%, of which two-thirds reached in July.

According to the analysis of China Cotton Association, in July, the national economy continued to recover steadily. Although the cotton area decreased, the yield increased steadily. Cotton reserves to adapt to market demand, rotation of all transactions, Xinjiang epidemic affected the export of Xinjiang cotton, domestic spot prices rose. Textile market in the off-season, raw materials to maintain low inventory, cotton commercial inventory decline narrowed. Cotton imports continued to grow, foreign epidemic continued, the drought situation in the US cotton region developed, and the Sino US contradiction escalated again. Affected by various factors, the international cotton price fluctuated frequently. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 12319 yuan / ton, up 453 yuan from the end of last month; the monthly average price was 12156 yuan / ton, up 198 yuan month on month, down 1994 yuan year on year. China's import cotton price index FC index m was 69.6 cents / pound, up 1.29 cents month on month. At the end of the month, it was 69.62 cents / pound, higher than 1.87 cents / pound at the end of the previous month. The 1% tariff was reduced to 12176 yuan / ton, which was lower than 143 yuan of domestic spot goods in the same period. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 145 yuan larger than that at the end of last month.