Tencent, Ali Box Office Attract Gold Confrontation, Film And Television Stocks Turn Out To Be A Golden Opportunity?

The National Day file is about to open, and film and television stocks are moving.

On September 30, film and television stocks rose, with Huawen group trading up, light media increasing by more than 6%, Beijing culture and Wanda film by more than 4%, giant network, China Film and Huayi Brothers followed. Since the return to work, the stock prices of some film and television sectors have recovered successfully.

During the National Day holiday, box office sales are hot and many films are showing in groups. Up to now, the box office of "eight hundred" has exceeded 3 billion yuan; the box office of Gong Li and Huang Bo has exceeded 260 million yuan and premiered on September 25; Jackie Chan's "pioneer" premiered on September 28, with a box office of more than 30 million yuan; in addition, movie fans are looking forward to Jiang Ziya and my hometown, which will be officially released on October 1.

According to cat's eye data, the National Day archives have basically formed a tripartite trend of "Jiang Ziya", "my hometown and me" and "pioneer". Taking October 1 as an example, the film layout rates of the three films were 36.7%, 35% and 19.4%, respectively, and the film layout rate of "champion" was 7.5%.

Behind these films are China film, Tencent, happy blue ocean, happy media, Ali, Beijing culture, Shanghai film, light media, etc.

National Day Film and television unit layout

On September 27, 800 official wechat announced that the box office exceeded 3 billion yuan. "Eight hundred" is the first film to be put on the market after the resumption of production. Since its broadcast on August 21, it has set many records, breaking the box office record of Chinese film market, breaking the global annual single day box office record, and the world's first film with a box office of more than 100 million for ten consecutive days. Seeing that the situation is very good, "eight hundred" has entered the National Day archives.

According to cat's eye data, the box office of the film reached 2.816 billion yuan. The film was produced by Huayi Brothers and Beijing seven impression Cultural Media Co., Ltd., and the joint producers included Ali film, light media, Shanghai film, Tencent pictures and perfect world. The distributors are Huayi Brothers, China film world and Alibaba pictures.

As the producer of the film, Huayi Brothers has attracted much attention due to the popularity of "eight hundred". On August 26, Huayi Brothers disclosed the relevant information of box office account splitting. At that time, the film was released in mainland China for five days, with a cumulative box office of over 1.155 billion yuan. The company's revenue from the film ranged from 205 million yuan to 245 million yuan. At the same time, the copyright sales revenue and overseas distribution income of the film have not been settled. Some analysts said that from the announcement, Huayi Brothers in the film's share ratio between 17.75% - 21.21%.

Wang Zhonglei, vice chairman and CEO of Huayi Brothers, said in an interview with the media that "eight hundred" is one of the top three films with the highest profit proportion in Huayi films.

Previously, on the evening of August 28, light media announced that as of August 27, 2020, the company's operating income from "eight hundred" was about 30 million yuan to 36 million yuan.

Although it has entered the National Day archives, the popularity of "eight hundred" has basically come to an end. It is estimated that the box office of the film is 1.3 billion yuan. The National Day archives will also usher in seven rivals, namely, the summer of kijiro, the champion, Jiang Ziya, me and my hometown, the vanguard, Mulan: born in the sky, and home at one point.

Among them, "Jiang Ziya", "I and my hometown" and "pioneer" are basically three parts of the world. Taking October 1 as an example, the film layout rates of the three films were 36.7%, 35% and 19.4% respectively. As of 15:00 on September 30, the total pre-sale box office of Jiang Ziya and my hometown has reached 127 million yuan and 86.06 million yuan. "Pioneer" was released on September 30 with a total box office of 34.726 million yuan.

There are also many listed companies behind the three films. The producers of avant garde are Chinese films and Tencent pictures, the co producers include the blue ocean of happiness, and the producer of Jiang Ziya has the light film industry.

"My hometown and I" is the sister piece of "I and my motherland", the highest box office film on the national day of last year, with a strong lineup. The producers include listed companies such as Beijing culture, Chinese film, Shanghai film and Huanxi media, and there are also buffeting, cat's eye, bilibilibili, Xinli media, happy Mahua and Huaxia films.

From this point of view, there will be a scuffle among several giants in the National Day archives. In addition to the traditional film and television companies, there will be a battle between Ali and Tencent, and Internet companies such as tremolo and bilibilibili will join in.

How about the film and TV industry?

The popularity of "eight hundred" is undoubtedly a huge boost to the market.

"Because in addition to the investment noumenon of film single project, I can afford investors and all entrepreneurs. Besides, it also boosts the confidence of the whole industry in the future. After the first two weeks of" 800 "achieved good box office, many blockbusters have been put on file. What we get more is the blessing of God and the audience. " Wang Zhonglei said.

Since July 20, the speed of returning to work and the audience's willingness to watch the film show positive performance. Since the middle of August, the restrictions on cinemas have been gradually relaxed. Since August 14, the attendance rate of some cities has been opened to 50%. At present, the occupancy rate of the hospital has been relaxed to 75%.

The film and television team of Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that it was still optimistic about the box office of the National Day archives, that is, driven by the new films in the head, the performance of theaters and theaters advertising companies continued to reverse from Q2, Q3 to Q4, and the film board entered the third stage of bottom repair, and the excess earnings of cinema plate and cinema advertising companies were higher or higher.

Yao Lei of Bohai Securities suggests that we should pay attention to the film fields with good 11th schedule and the strong box office lineup in the 11th schedule, and continue to pay attention to the leading film companies and related production and distribution companies; in addition, we suggest that we should pay attention to the leading companies in the advertising industry with the recovery of the prosperity in the second half of the year, and focus on the high-quality leading companies with low performance.

However, what can not be ignored is that the trauma brought by the epidemic has not yet healed. Huayi Brothers' cash flow continues to tighten. Just as the film "800" tops the global box office in 2020, Huayi Brothers has encountered the reduction of the actual controller, which is mainly used to repay the stock pledge financing. The stock price of "eight hundred friends" has fallen since it was released.

From the current situation, there is the possibility of "retaliatory consumption" in the National Day archives, but it is not likely to recover to the level before the epidemic by relying on individual "burst money" in the short term.

"The seasonal impact of National Day archives and Spring Festival archives is only short-term and one-off, and will not have a decisive effect on the performance of film and television stocks. From the past experience, the market will have expectations for the boom. Generally, the stock price will take the lead in response to the boom, which will not have a great impact on the long-term trend. " A long-term focus on the film and television industry securities personage said.

According to the box office calculation of the seven films currently scheduled by Dongfang securities, combined with the box office recovery of 65% last year, it is estimated that the total box office of the seven films can reach 6.88 billion yuan under optimistic conditions, 5.49 billion yuan under neutral conditions and 4.571 billion yuan under pessimistic conditions.

Based on this calculation, a single film may have a volume of more than one billion at most, so it is difficult to have a big hit. Which film will win in the National Day archives will be revealed soon.