Holiday Economy AB Side: Industry Recovery Meets Expectations, Stock Market Reaction Is Flat

"I'm very busy these days. I'm tired, but I'm really happy." Every day she shuttles between Jiuzhaigou Huanglong Airport and the scenic spot to pick up and see off tourists. A LAN stares at the number of tourists entering Jiuzhaigou scenic spot in time on her mobile phone. As soon as there is an increase, she excitedly shows the latest data to the 21st century economic reporter.

On the eve of the National Day holiday, the number of tourists per day in Jiuzhaigou scenic area has been raised to 23000, in order to meet the largest tourist tide after the reconstruction. From August to August, the number of tourists visiting the scenic spot reached Jiuzhaigou, and the number of tourists who visited the scenic area from August to August was more than 10000. Among them, the daily number of people entering the ditch from October 3 to 5 has approached or reached the maximum tourist carrying capacity of the scenic spot.

The bustling scene of Jiuzhaigou scenic spot is a miniature of the recovery of domestic tourism during the National Day holiday this year. Hot tourism data in line with the industry's previous expectations, but the response of the capital market is relatively flat. On October 9, in the case of A-share soaring, the tourism and hotel sectors were lack of heat. The shares of more than 11 liquor travel companies, including Zhongxin tourism (002707. SZ), Songcheng Performing Arts (300144. SZ), Jinjiang Hotel (600754. SH), fell.

A tourism analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st century economic report that the data of domestic tourism industry during the "11th" holiday undeniably gave confidence to the industry to recover. However, due to the suspension of outbound travel and the risk of epidemic situation, there are still many challenges for the domestic tourism industry to achieve a comprehensive recovery.

Recovery: improvement of consumption power and outstanding performance of hotel industry

It coincides with the double festival of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day, and this year's National Day holiday has been extended to eight days. In the view of the industry, these eight days will become the "key battle" for the recovery of domestic tourism industry in the era of epidemic situation. Experts in Ctrip's big data lab had predicted to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the number of tourists during the eight day National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday this year may exceed 600 million, and the recovery ratio may reach 70% to 80% of the same period last year.

Facts have proved that the actual recovery is in line with this expectation.

"Whether compared with last year's National Day holiday tourist reception and tourism income according to comparable caliber, or compared with the recovery degree of labor day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, we can draw a conclusion from the official data: relying on the domestic super market, China's tourism economy has entered a new stage of full resumption of work and production under the normal situation of epidemic prevention and control, and the tourism consumption confidence is comprehensive The tourism development potential will be fully released Dai bin, President of China Tourism Research Institute, said that compared with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the recovery progress of domestic tourism industry has increased by 28% and 39% respectively, and the per capita tourism consumption has also increased significantly.

UnionPay's data also further corroborated the phenomenon that residents' consumption power improved month on month during the National Day holiday this year. From October 1 to 7, the transaction amount of UnionPay network reached 2.16 trillion yuan, which was a positive growth year-on-year. However, during the period of May 1 this year, the transaction amount of UnionPay network declined.

The improvement of tourists' consumption power during the National Day holiday benefits from the change of their choices.

In July this year, with the domestic epidemic situation being controlled to a certain extent, the ban on inter provincial group tours was gradually lifted, accelerating the pace of domestic tourism recovery. However, different from previous years, domestic tourists are more willing to pay for high-quality group products, and "private group" has become the main product of OTA (online tourism enterprise) platform and travel agencies.

According to Ctrip's report on the revival of new tour following on National Day 2020 released on October 9, during the National Day holiday this year, the number of tourists who signed up for "private group" on the platform increased by 100% over the same period of last year, far exceeding the overall growth level of the domestic tourism market. The per capita cost of "private group" in the platform was about 5000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13%. "Tourists are willing to spend a little more money to pay for the quality and service. Even some domestic tourism products with a unit price of more than 10000 yuan are in short supply." Ctrip said to reporters of the 21st century economic report.

The 21st century economic reporter further learned that during the holiday, more than 2000 travel agencies developed and launched more than 40000 domestic follow-up products on the Ctrip platform, setting a record high. Among them, the self operated travel agencies under Ctrip have newly developed tens of thousands of "private group" products, with a substantial increase in the number.

"One out of every five tourists who sign up for Ctrip's self-employed group tour on National Day choose" private group. " According to the person in charge of Ctrip, the "private group" has been successful in the market and is becoming a major driving force for the income recovery of travel agencies and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.

"This part of the demand is largely from the demand for outbound travel." The aforementioned tourism industry analysts told the 21st century economic report that the suspension of outbound travel has overstocked a large part of high-quality tourism demand. During the National Day holiday this year, this part of demand was transferred to the domestic market, triggering the consumption of medium and high-end tourism products.

It is also worth mentioning the "long-term holiday" in the field of "eleven". As a result, the arrival of high hotel prices, the arrival of the average rise in the hotel industry.

"It's true that the supply of the house type of 100000 yuan a night is in short supply." In response to the rumor that "the hotel suites with more than 100000 yuan per night were fully reserved before the long holiday", a staff member of Atlantis Hotel in Sanya, Hainan confirmed this to the reporter of 21st century economic report. The staff also revealed that the room type of 1999 yuan per night was also increased to 3999 yuan per night during the long holiday, with a significant increase in price.

During the period of "three hotels" and "long distance hotels", the average demand of hotels such as "hotels in Chongqing" and "hotels in Xiamen" increased significantly from 9% to 140% respectively.

Major hotel groups also use the "11" holiday to promote business recovery.

The relevant person in charge of Yaduo group told the 21st century economic report that the hotel business of the group recovered to the same level of the same period last year during the national day of this year, and some hotels in some cities have created a new record of performance due to the demand of tourists on national day.

"During the golden week under the epidemic situation, the average occupancy rate of the hotels under Huazhu group reached 85%, and the single room income and rental rate were the same as those in the same period last year and increased slightly. At the same time, hotels around the popular scenic spots are full of rooms in short supply. " Huazhu group told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

This year's "11" holiday, the hotel price of Huazhu group has also increased to a certain extent. Among them, the hotel prices in Qingdao, Chongqing and Xi'an have increased by more than 90% month on month. In addition, the background data of Huazhu show that from October 1 to 7 this year, the ADR (average room price) of the group's hotels was about 278 yuan, slightly higher than that of the same period last year; the room RevPAR (revenue per saleable room) was about 235.4 yuan, compared with 234.4 yuan in the same period last year.

Stock market: Liquor and tourism sector did not show "11 effects", 11 companies' share prices fell

The capital market reaction of domestic tourism industry after the festival is also concerned.

A shares have always had the "eleven effect" (also known as the "National Day Effect"), that is, the market falls before the festival, and will probably rise after the festival. On October 9, a shares confirmed this effect. As of the end of the day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes rose by 1.68% and 2.96% respectively, and more than 90% of the shares of Companies in the two markets rose.

However, the above bustling scene failed to spread in the wine tourism plate. 21 century economic report reporter statistics found that in the first trading day after the festival, 11 of the 30 A-share liquor travel companies fell. Among them, China's central immune (601888. SH), Zhongxin tourism, Tianmu Lake (603136. SH) and Songcheng Performing Arts (300144. SZ) fell by more than 4%, while Kaisa tourism (000796. SZ), Jinjiang Hotel and ShouLv Hotel (600259. SH) fell by more than 2%.

"Although the tourism data from the National Day holiday show a strong recovery in confidence in the industry, compared with the recovery in the number of tourists, tourism revenue is slightly inferior." The tourism industry analysts told the 21st century economic report that the tourism consumption potential suppressed by the epidemic has not been fully released, and the number of tourists has recovered to nearly 80% in the same period of last year, but the recovery of tourism income has not reached the same level.

It is worth mentioning that the stock price trend of most A-share tourism enterprises has been in a downturn before the festival: Huangshan Tourism (600054. SH), Xi'an Tourism (000610. SZ), Lijiang shares (002033. SZ), Tibet tourism (600749. SH), Yunnan Tourism (002059. SZ) and other tourism enterprises have fallen for several days before the festival.

Liu Xiaoyong, an analyst of Shanxi securities social service industry, believes that the National Day holiday has become a node for the centralized release of domestic tourism demand and supply, but attention should be paid to the impact of the second wave of domestic rebound on the industry performance.

The potential risk of the second epidemic is the biggest uncertainty factor faced by the tourism industry, which also leads to the gap between the domestic tourism industry and the realization of "full blood revival". One obvious sign is that the short-term prospect of outbound tourism is not clear.

Macao opened its endorsement on the eve of the National Day holiday to attract tourists from the mainland. According to the data disclosed by Macao tourism administration, from October 1 to October 6, about 112000 tourists entered Macao, a year-on-year decrease of 84.8%, and hotel occupancy rate recovered by about 35%. In this regard, Tang Jun, an analyst in the leisure service industry of Soochow securities, believes that under the premise of better domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the mainland cultural and tourism market will continue to undertake the demand for outbound tourism return.

However, according to the calculation of 21st century economic report, although tourists are willing to spend high-quality tourism products in the mainland during the National Day holiday this year, the overall per capita tourism consumption is only 732.4 yuan, which is 11.6% less than that of the same period last year.

Fortunately, the "11" long holiday has sent a signal that tourists' willingness and ability to spend in the high-end are further revealed, which makes the domestic tourism industry's performance in the fourth quarter continue to warm up.

"We are optimistic about the recovery of the tourism market and the revitalization of the industry in the fourth quarter." Dai Bin said.