Big Performance Increase "Chip Leader" Ziguang Micro Benz Drop Limit Nearly 8 Billion, Market Value Evaporation "Poor Expectations" Cause Trouble?

Guojin securities research report forecasts that the net profit of Ziguang Guowei will be 925 million yuan, 1.294 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan from 2020 to 2022, while the forecast performance of Everbright Securities in the corresponding year will be 910 million yuan, 1.18 billion yuan and 1.54 billion yuan.

This is far from the expected net profit of 751 million yuan to 872 million yuan in 2020 given by Ziguang Guowei on October 21.

Ziguang Guowei (002049. SZ) appeared a surprising scene.

On October 21, the third quarter report of 2020 disclosed by Ziguang Guowei showed that its performance in the first three quarters increased by 87.51% year-on-year, reaching 685 million yuan, which not only reached a record high in the same period, but also far exceeded the previous year's highest performance of 406 million yuan in 2019.

At the same time, Ziguang Guowei also predicts that the net profit in 2020 will reach 751 million yuan to 872 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85% to 115%.

However, as soon as the beautiful performance was unveiled, the shares of Ziguang Guowei fell.

Statistics show that the stock price of Ziguang Guowei fell to the limit on October 21, with a market value of 7.666 billion yuan evaporated in a single day.

"Ziguang Guowei's stock price limit at the time of the performance announcement is related to the fact that its actual performance is lower than the market expectation." A private equity source told 21st century economic reporter.

As soon as the beautiful performance was unveiled, the shares of Ziguang Guowei fell. Visual China

Market expectations contrast

As a leading enterprise of domestic intelligent chip, Ziguang Guowei is favored by many securities research institutions.

Statistics show that since August 20, at least 15 securities research papers have given Ziguang Guowei a buy or increase investment rating.

Among them, Guojin securities research report predicts that the net profit of Ziguang Guowei will be 925 million yuan, 1.294 billion yuan and 1.74 billion yuan from 2020 to 2022, while the forecast performance of Everbright Securities Research Report in corresponding year is 910 million yuan, 1.18 billion yuan and 1.54 billion yuan.

This is far from the expected net profit of 751 million yuan to 872 million yuan in 2020 given by Ziguang Guowei on October 21.

Ziguang Guowei's share price suddenly fell to a halt, which was also surprising.

Earlier, on August 7, when Ziguang Guowei's share price reached its historical peak, Guotai Junan research paper claimed that Ziguang Guowei's long-term performance growth momentum was sufficient, and raised its 2020 target price to 176.25 yuan / share.

It is worth noting that the performance of Ziguang Guowei in 2020 predicted by Guotai Junan research report is basically consistent with the expected upper limit of Ziguang Guowei, which is 856 million yuan.

Nevertheless, the shares of Ziguang Guowei have dropped to 27.15% since then. The closing price is 113.65 yuan / share, which is far away from the target price of Guotai Junan Research Report.

However, compared with Guojin Securities Research Report and Everbright Securities research paper, Guotai Junan research paper's forecast of Ziguang Guowei's performance is closer to the actual situation.

"The company's performance in the first three quarters of this year is almost the same as the previous forecast and close to the upper limit of the forecast. It should be considered that the growth target is consistent with the expectation." Ziguang Guowei staff said to the 21st century economic reporter on the afternoon of October 21.

According to the previous disclosure, Ziguang Guowei expects net profit of 548 million yuan to 694 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year.

For Guotai Junan, whose performance forecast is in the company's forecast range, Guotai Junan also predicts that the performance of Ziguang Guowei in 2021 and 2022 will be 1.269 billion yuan and 1.779 billion yuan respectively, which is similar to the above research report of Guojin securities, but higher than that of Everbright Securities.

More than 1.6 billion shareholders

Ziguang Guowei, whose stock price encounters black swan, has been adjusted by institutions before.

According to public information, at the end of the second quarter of this year, the fund shareholding of Ziguang Guowei was 68.4114 million shares, accounting for 11.29%, but decreased to 47.6111 million shares accounting for 7.86% at the end of the third quarter.

What is remarkable is that in the third quarter of the sharp rise in the share price of Ziguang Guowei, the major shareholders have reduced their holdings and cashed in every high.

According to the announcement, Ziguang group, the indirect controlling shareholder of Ziguang Guowei, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ziguang communications, reduced their holdings of 1.12 million shares and 1.2 million shares respectively by means of centralized bidding on July 1, and both of them achieved clearance.

Ziguang Chunhua, the controlling shareholder of Ziguang Guowei, reduced 7.7931 million shares through block trading from July 20 to 22. As a result, Ziguang Chunhua and its persons acting in concert reduced their shares of 10.1131 million shares, accounting for 1.67% of the total share capital.

Based on the rough calculation of the average transaction price of block trading and the closing price at the time of centralized bidding reduction, Ziguang Chunhua and its persons acting in concert have realized a total of more than 1.6 billion yuan.

In addition, Tongfang shares (6001009. SH) also sold 2.53 million shares of Ziguang Guowei through centralized bidding from September 17 to 21, realizing RMB 299 million.

Ziguang Guowei can be regarded as one of the bull stocks of this year. Even though the stock price has dropped recently, the overall increase has reached 123.85%. Especially from April 1 to August 7, its share price range soared by 213.06%, attracting the attention of the market.

However, Ziguang Guowei's major M & A has stopped during the period when the stock price soared.

According to the announcement, on June 5, Ziguang Guowei issued shares to purchase assets and related transactions, which were not approved by the merger and reorganization Review Committee of the CSRC. The main reasons were that the ownership of the underlying assets was defective and the amount of goodwill of the underlying assets accounted for a large proportion, and the applicant failed to fully explain that the transaction was conducive to improving the asset quality of listed companies.

In this restructuring, Ziguang Guowei plans to acquire 100% equity of Ziguang Liansheng, a controlling shareholder of Ziguang group. The transaction price is about 18 billion yuan. It claims that the target owns intelligent security chip components in the world leading position.

Ziguang plans to raise more than RMB 1.5 billion in the R & D of high-end chips and new-type controllers. However, it plans to raise more than RMB 1.5 billion in R & D of high-end chips and new-type micro controllers, which can not be used to expand the industry.

"The focus of convertible bond raising and investment is to develop intelligent security chip business, which is also the direction of the company's development. Now securities companies are doing the due diligence of convertible bonds." According to the above-mentioned, some reporters in the 21st century have reported to employees of big smart chips in the domestic market