Effective Regulation In The Third Quarter: Lack Of "Gold, Silver And Ten" In The Property Market

In the third quarter of 2020, the real estate market will be regulated intensively, and the tone of urban policy and housing speculation will be clearer. The central government's control over house prices and land prices has been significantly strengthened, which is closely related to the market recovery in some cities.

Taking the first tier cities as an example, Shanghai's market turnover rebounded significantly, partly because of the far-reaching impact of price restriction and purchase restriction. Consumers are more enthusiastic about projects with inverted primary and secondary prices. The number of second-hand transactions in Shanghai also reached a record high of 31000 sets in September.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the recent regulation in some cities is mainly due to the rapid rise of house prices, and proper regulation has also played an exemplary role. In fact, if there is financial pressure on the real estate market, there will still be pressure on the real estate market.

According to the Research Report on the regulation and control of the third quarter by the China Central Index Institute, local governments continue to adhere to the policy of "one city, one policy" and adopt differentiated and targeted control policies in view of the changes of real estate market in different cities. In the third quarter, restrictions on purchase, loan and sale are still the main measures, while land, price limit and false divorce are supplemented in some cities. Some cities have introduced provident fund, talent introduction and household registration policies to improve the efficiency of factor flow, strengthen the attraction of urban talents, and further promote the development of the real estate market.

In this process, East China market regulation is the most intensive and market attention is also high. A person from the research department of real estate enterprises believes that the market has generally cooled down and the policy will not be increased for the time being, unless some cities continue to overheat.

Some people in the industry believe that the real estate financial supervision may maintain a tightening trend. With the pilot implementation of the "three red lines" new regulations, corporate financing will be differentiated, and the real estate policy in the fourth quarter is mainly "stable".

Intensive regulation and control

With the continuous changes in the market situation, the real estate regulation policy has also changed. In the third quarter, a number of central meetings reiterated the spirit of real estate regulation. On July 24, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, presided over a forum on real estate work, stressing that "real estate should not be speculated". He proposed that all localities should proceed from reality, implement policies according to the City, and timely, scientific and accurate regulation and control to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market; on July 30, the Central Committee held a political bureau meeting, reiterating the principle of "no speculation in real estate"; on August 20, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the central Bank of China held a meeting On August 26, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a meeting on real estate enterprises in some cities, insisting on not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, maintaining the continuity and stability of regulatory policies and ensuring the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Specifically, a number of regulatory measures deployed by the central government include financial, taxation, land and market supervision.

In terms of finance, since the first half of this year, the Shenzhen Branch of the Central Bank of the people's Bank of China strictly inspected the inflow of illegal funds such as mortgage loans and loans into the real estate market, the financial supervision market has become strict, and the "three red lines" of real estate enterprise financing have also launched pilot projects. Personal financial supervision has also been strengthened. The central government has repeatedly stressed the need to regulate the inflow of funds into real estate, such as comprehensive loans for personal consumption, business loans and credit card overdraft.

Since Shenzhen issued a policy on July 15 to adjust the VAT exemption period from two years to five years, similar policies have been issued in Wuxi, Shenyang and Chengdu. Under the premise that the central government emphasizes the role of fiscal and tax policies, fiscal and tax policies have become an important part of the regulation of the property market.

In addition to tightening the policy, the 21st century economic reporter found that in addition to tightening the policy, the use of local provident fund policy has been more centralized. In addition, the lower threshold of talent access has become one of the means of local real estate market regulation. On August 20, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui jointly signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement on housing provident fund integration in the Yangtze River Delta. Wuhan issued and implemented the management measures for the liquidity of housing provident fund. When the personal loan rate is below 85%, it will implement a positive and loose policy of housing provident fund loan and withdrawal. If the personal loan rate exceeds 85%, the policy of "graded early warning, moderate regulation and control, and guarantee the just need" will be implemented. Hefei will introduce a tax-free housing rental policy, which can be changed into "rent-free" housing in Hefei and "rent-free housing" in Nanjing.

In this context, some cities with high property market heat, the housing provident fund regulation policy has also been tightened. For example, the down payment ratio of Changzhou provident fund to purchase second set of housing was increased to 60%; the interest rate of Wuxi provident fund for purchasing second set of housing was increased by 10%.

It can be seen that "tightening" is not targeted at all. Will the heat of the market be reduced by the introduction of policies?

Remarkable results have been achieved

The residential transaction scale in the first and second tier cities in the third quarter reached the highest level since 2017, which is one of the reasons for the introduction of intensive regulation. According to statistics, from January to September 2020, the transaction area of residential buildings in 50 representative cities is about 28.35 million square meters, which is still at the lowest level in the same period since 2015, but the year-on-year decline has narrowed to about 5%.

It is worth noting that in the third quarter, the transaction area of first-hand housing in first tier cities was about 830000 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 41%, which was higher than that in other cities. At the same time, the price increase in first tier cities was also expanding.

According to the data of Kerui Research Center, in the past week (October 19-october 25), the transaction volume of four first tier cities continued to increase, with Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increasing by nearly 10% month on month, and Beijing showed the most significant growth trend, with a month on month increase of 22%.

However, most cities below the second tier are obviously cooling down. Among them, the turnover area of 12 second tier cities rose and fell by half on a month on month basis, Wuhan, Chongqing and other high-level transactions fell, Hangzhou and Changsha fell by nearly 50%, while Chengdu, Qingdao and other transactions continued to rise. More than 60% of the transaction area of the third and fourth tier cities dropped significantly, with Zhaoqing, Lianyungang, Nanchong falling by more than 20%, and Zhoushan's trading area was cut back.

However, the regulation effect of some cities remains to be observed. For example, in Hangzhou, despite the introduction of high-level talents, preferential housing selection mechanism for non homeowners, restrictions on purchase and loan increase, and prevention of false divorce to buy a house, Hangzhou's real estate market has cooled down in the third quarter, but the housing price has increased by 2.81%. It is worth noting that under the new policy, it is more difficult for some buyers in Hangzhou to win the new houses and turn to the second-hand housing market, which leads to the rise of second-hand house transactions and the rise of second-hand house prices. In the third quarter, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou doubled, and the second-hand house price rose by 0.41%.

Shenzhen, Nanjing also appeared the phenomenon that the market volume fell and the price rose. In particular, Shenzhen, the market is still hot, the number of second-hand transactions and prices similar to Hangzhou, both volume and price rise.

Although regulation is tightening, in the eyes of market people, the effect of regulation and control policy on market cooling is obviously greater than that of regulation itself. Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan market in Shanghai, pointed out that the market will not maintain its heat in the fourth quarter. According to his research, the number of new customers in the market is not as much as that in the third quarter, and the gap between case Market and customer volume is quite large. After the "gold nine silver ten", the market rebound strength is also weakening.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that the new market recognition rate is also declining. Taking Shanghai as an example, under the premise of no increase in market supply, "subsequent transactions have shown signs of fatigue, and whether it can reach 900000 square meters in October is still unknown.".