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Negative Factors Still Exist, PTA Continued To Rebound Power Is Insufficient

2020/11/4 19:07:00 0

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, after more than 10 days of continuous decline, PTA market rose slightly today (November 3). The average price of spot market on that day was 3252 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 33.93% year-on-year. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3380, up 26% or 0.78% from the previous trading day. Upstream crude oil stopped falling, and Yangzi Petrochemical PTA unit was overhauled, thus delaying the market atmosphere of fear of falling.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on November 2, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $36.81/barrel. The demand for heating in winter has led to a further increase in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC + alliance is considering delaying the planned increase in supply in January, which has played a positive role in the rise of crude oil price.

　　 Recent changes of domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

manufacturing enterprise	Total capacity	Maintenance capacity	Maintenance plan
Yangzi Petrochemical	one hundred	thirty-five	It is planned to start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, and the restart time is to be determined.
Yizheng Chemical Fiber	one hundred	sixty-five	It will be overhauled on October 12, 2020, and it will start to warm up and restart in the afternoon of October 30, 2020. At present, it is running normally.
Yadong petrochemical	seventy	seventy	It is planned to be overhauled from November 13 to November 28, 2020.
Hanbang petrochemical	two hundred and eighty	two hundred and twenty	In the evening of September 29, 2020, the load will be reduced and the material will be discharged in the morning of October 29, and the load will be basically full on October 30.
Hanbang petrochemical	two hundred and eighty	sixty	From May 9, 2020, it will be stopped for maintenance and restart to be determined.
Chuanneng chemistry	one hundred	one hundred	It is planned to start maintenance for 14 days on October 15, 2020.
Yisheng Dalian	six hundred	three hundred and seventy-five	The load will be reduced to 50% on October 26, 2020, and maintenance will be started for 2 weeks on November 1.
Hengli Dalian	one thousand one hundred and sixty	two hundred and twenty	Maintenance will start on October 18, 2020 and restart on October 31, 2020. At present, it is running at full load.
Jialong petrochemical	sixty	sixty	It will be stopped for maintenance on August 2, 2019, and the restart time is to be determined.
Pengwei petrochemical	ninety	ninety	It will be stopped for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and the restart is to be determined.
Tianjin Petrochemical	thirty-four	thirty-four	It will be stopped for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and the restart is to be determined.

With the 2.2 million tons of Hanbang petrochemical, 650000 tons of Yizheng Chemical fiber, and 2.2 million tons of Hengli petrochemical, the operating rate of the market has reached more than 86%. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of PTA new production capacity of Dushan energy phase II will be put into operation, and the supply side pressurization still exists. Today, Yangzi Petrochemical announced that the 350000 ton unit planned to start maintenance, which can relieve the pressure of PTA supply to a certain extent.

Compared with October, the downstream polyester market began to return to rationality in November, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. Both textile enterprises, textile mills and traders are basically cautious, with polyester operating load around 86%. In terms of price, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, polyester filament factory, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is quoted at 5200-5500 yuan / ton. In terms of starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 93%. As of November 3, the starting rate of water jet and air-jet looms in Shengze area is about 80-90%. In terms of inventory, as of November 3, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze area was more than 40 days, and some manufacturers were difficult to make flat production and sales, and began to accumulate.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the international crude oil price rebounds in the short term and the cost side is favorable. But at present, PTA spot is sufficient, processing costs are high and new production capacity is about to be put into operation, and the downstream polyester demand market lacks confidence. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rebound, with insufficient power.