"Boots" Landing Institutions Study And Judge A-Share Investment Strategy At The End Of The Year

Ant group, the US election -- the two major uncertainties affecting A-share are disappearing, and the capital market funds are beginning to choose the direction.

On November 4, A-share market showed a shock rebound trend. Auto, new energy plate led the rise, ant financial services concept shares due to the impact of the suspension of listing ant group led the decline. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3277.44, up 0.19%; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.59%; the gem index rose 0.23%; and the science and technology innovation 50 rose 0.68%. However, the transaction volume on the same day was only 717.6 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of more than 55 billion yuan.

In fact, in the three trading days since November, a shares continued to shrink and rise, and the funds showed a wait-and-see situation. During this period, the net inflow was 3.864 billion yuan.

After the end of the wait-and-see period, many institutional investors interviewed by the 21st century economic report believe that domestic factors will play a major role in the future market, especially the "14th five year plan" has attracted great attention from the investment community.

The leading factor of a share changes from outside to inside

Previously, due to investors generally worried about the impact of the U.S. election and avoided as much as possible, leading to A-share callback.

However, according to the investigation and interview conducted by reporters, it is generally believed that the influence of the US general election on A-share shares has basically ended. Since then, the main impact of the A-share market has come from internal factors, especially the proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term goal for the year 2035 (hereinafter referred to as the "proposal") released on the evening of November 3, which has a bearing on China's future economic development The guiding ideology of sustainable development in China is discussed in detail.

"The next market may not necessarily rise immediately, it may be repeatedly shaken." Said Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment. "Looking forward, the main impact of a shares is internal factors, and investment should be matched with the 14th five year plan." Zhao Lisong said.

Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, said, "at present, the Asia Pacific market is calm, the performance of a shares is stable, and the core driving factors still depend on China. The impact of the US election on a shares is limited. Our layout is focused on the 14th five year plan, focusing on new generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials and financial services. "

Private placement network future star fund manager Xia Fengguang also believes that "the fundamental driving force of the market still depends on valuation and performance growth. The domestic macro situation is unique this year, and it is still very likely that the growth rate will lead the world next year. The suspension of the listing of ants also shows that the regulatory authorities are highly alert to possible financial risks, which is not a bad thing for the long-term development of the market. On the whole, we are still very confident in the long-term development of domestic A shares. " Summer scenery said.

Shang Weiling, investment director of junchuang fund, said that the market has been adjusted since October due to the impact of the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the presidential election in the United States. However, he judged that after November, the uncertainties in the macro level and external environment of the market would gradually disappear. In the vacuum period of external disturbance, the market would return to the fundamentals, and more attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the company itself Long term intrinsic value.

The logic of institutional aftermarket layout

For the A-share market in the last two months of 2020, some institutional people are optimistic that there is a structural market.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that with the elimination of factors such as the US election and the listing of ants, the A-share market is expected to regain its upward trend. "Before the end of the year, there will be a decent rebound in the A-share market, which may even reach a new high in the year. It is suggested that investors should maintain confidence and patience for the future market, and holding high-quality stocks is the best strategy to deal with market fluctuations. "

The three quarterly reports just disclosed have become the focus of investment institutions.

Deng Yuxiang, director of Equity Investment Department of Furong fund, said that the three quarterly reports of listed companies had been fully disclosed. On the whole, the net profit of listed companies had been greatly improved after the epidemic eased: the cumulative net profit growth rate of the whole a in 2020q3 was - 6.0%, 11.8% higher than - 17.8% in 2020q2. From the structural point of view, the main board and the small and medium-sized board have made greater efforts to repair the performance, while the growth enterprise market has begun to slow down (but the absolute growth rate is high). In the industry, financial real estate, cycle manufacturing and other midstream and upstream performance improved significantly, while the profits of medical care, science and technology, and consumption increased faster than before.

Deng Yuxiang introduced that in general, the position of public funds in the third quarter was disclosed, and the positions of stock funds declined: the positions of general stock funds decreased from 86.49% to 84.93%, and the positions of partial stock hybrid funds decreased from 84.96% to 83.19%. In terms of industry allocation, the industries with the largest number of additional positions in heavy positions of Q3 active equity funds are electrical equipment, food and beverage and banks, while the industries with more reduction are medicine, computer and electronics. The overall risk preference of Q3 has been obviously transferred at the industry level, and the risk preference has declined. Funds have been transferred from high valuation medicine and TMT to performance certainty and undervalued sectors.

"On the policy side, the proposal is conducive to boosting market confidence. We believe that after two weeks of weak oscillations in the market in the short term, external bad effects have been digested to a certain extent, and it is expected to continue to oscillate upward after the external uncertainty falls. In terms of science and technology, we are focusing on underestimating the value of technology and the military industry. " Deng said.

A private fund manager also said, "judging from the data of the third quarter report, due to the continuous overseas epidemic situation, many Chinese manufacturing industries have been given good opportunities. Due to the lack of research on the production capacity of domestic companies and overseas companies, many of them have transferred to overseas industries due to the lack of information about the epidemic situation. Some people think that these orders may be "a wave of current", but according to our understanding, Chinese enterprises have been recognized after entering the supply chain of this industry, and many orders will probably continue in the future. "

The above-mentioned private fund managers pointed out that, especially from the performance of some domestic semiconductor and electronic industries, after the impact of sanctions such as Huawei and Hikvision, the demand of domestic enterprises for domestic substitutes has become stronger, and the localization rate of many components has increased significantly. This trend is expected to continue in recent years. On this basis, the profits of many companies will have a big step up. Therefore, the line of domestic independent science and technology is not only a policy advocated by the state, but also falls on the actual performance of enterprises, and will be the main line of attention after it.

For the next investment layout, some institutions pay attention to the investment opportunities in consumption upgrading and science and technology fields in the 14th five year plan.

Qiu Jingmin, manager of Guangfa new economic fund, said that the proposal further clarified the direction and focus of China's economic and social development. In the future, we will take the road of high-quality development, and pay more attention to the internal structural upgrading while maintaining a relatively fast growth rate relative to the world. From the long-term trend of economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, the future capital market will generate structural investment opportunities in the fields of consumption upgrading and scientific and technological progress. These two plates will breed a large number of excellent growth enterprises.

Some institutions are more optimistic about undervalued stocks and Hong Kong stocks.

Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, said, "we focus on the research and allocation of high-quality enterprises in a and H shares. As for a and H shares, we are very cautious about the leading stocks with overvalued A shares. We rarely hold them. We hold more undervalued financial, real estate, travel, home appliances and second-line undervalued consumer stocks, and overlay off-line innovation to increase profits for customers. As for H shares, as the A and H premium indices are at historical extremes, we are constantly increasing the allocation of Hong Kong stocks. In addition to financial real estate being more undervalued, high-quality and undervalued pharmaceutical stocks are also our targets at present. "