The Last "Difference" In Fund Performance Ranking War: Is Technology Stocks Reduced To "Cash Hot Spot" Or "Let Go"?

According to the 21st Century Capital Research Institute tracking data, the hot technology stocks in the whole first half of the year encountered a substantial adjustment in the third quarter.

Compared with the high and concentrated allocation ratio of public funds in medicine, food and beverage, and electronics industries in the second quarter, the allocation of fund managers in the third quarter of this year has changed significantly. The pharmaceutical and electronic industries have become the two industries with the largest reduction of public funds positions in the third quarter.

In fact, judging from the trend of the A-share market in the whole three quarters, the index turned to wide range shock after the second quarter, and the hot technology, consumption and other high valuation stocks in the early stage turned to adjustment.

The data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 7.82% in the third quarter, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 7.63% in the third quarter, and the gem index rose 5.6%. Compared with the second quarter's sharp rise of more than 30%, the growth enterprise market index's growth rate significantly converged.

The change of index also gave birth to the adjustment of fund position, especially near the end of the year performance ranking, the allocation of institutions also showed different changes.

"From the middle of July to September this year, the gem index was adjusted by more than 10%. Among them, the technology stocks represented by semiconductors have been adjusted most fully. Many science and technology innovation stocks have been adjusted by nearly 50%, and the market volume has dropped from one trillion to several thousand." The investment director of a mutual fund in Beijing told the 21st century economic report.

It revealed that at that time, the whole market's views on the follow-up A-share trend appeared more obvious differentiation.

Pharmaceutical and electronic industries became the two industries with the largest reduction of public funds in the third quarter. ICphoto

Technology stocks cut back

Obviously, this differentiation is reflected in the allocation of fund managers in the third quarter.

According to the third quarter report of public funds, the 21st century economic report found that many fund managers mentioned the allocation value of undervalued sectors in their quarterly reports, and made appropriate allocation in their positions. However, they had some reservations about the technology stocks with excessive early growth and high valuation.

For example, Qiu Dongrong, the star fund manager of Zhonggeng fund, points out that the internal valuation of equity assets is extremely differentiated. Industries such as partial cycle and financial real estate are still at the bottom of valuation, while the valuations of technology, consumption, medicine and other industries are much higher than those in 2015.

It said frankly that the differentiation of valuation structure and the construction of high cost performance portfolio should be treated with caution.

According to this logic, Qiu Dongrong maintained a high stock position in the third quarter, and further increased the individual stock allocation in the military industry and manufacturing industry in the partial growth industry.

Taking Zhonggeng small cap value as an example, compared with the second quarter, the fund reduced the allocation of torch electronics and LiuYao two electronic and pharmaceutical industry stocks in the third quarter, and increased the allocation of Lijun shares, Yongyi shares, Xinlong health and other mechanical equipment and light industry manufacturing industry stocks.

Feng Mingyuan, a fund manager selected by Cinda Australia Bank, also pointed out that the fund portfolio in the third quarter of this year was mainly composed of emerging industries, while companies in traditional industries were allocated.

However, in terms of science and technology, Feng Mingyuan pays more attention to 5g and semiconductors, believing that technology is still an important direction in the future.

In the third quarter of last year's double engine upgrade, Guangfa still focused on the configuration of semiconductor, new energy and medical services based growth industries.

Liu Gesong, the fund manager, pointed out that with the alleviation of the domestic epidemic situation, the advantages of the necessary consumer goods are gradually weakening, and they are optimistic about the long-term development of the new energy industry. For semiconductors, although the industry fluctuates, it is still optimistic about the long-term development of the industry.

Guangfa Shuangqing upgraded its heavy positions in the third quarter, focusing on electronics, electrical equipment and pharmaceutical biology, including Longji, Kangtai, Tongwei, Boea, etc.

At the beginning of the third quarter, the value of technology stocks was also overvalued.

In the third quarter, Zhao Feng, the fund manager of Ruiyuan equilibrium value, reduced his holdings of pharmaceutical and consumer stocks, which had a higher rise in the previous period, and increased his holdings of stocks with lower valuations such as real estate.

Data from Soochow securities showed that the main board position of public funds increased in the third quarter, while the growth enterprise market declined. Growth stocks, represented by growth stocks, accounted for 18.9% of the stock market value in the third quarter from 21.6% in the second quarter, and the proportion of the main board increased from 54.7% to 56.4%. In the industry, the cycle of increasing positions, financial real estate, reducing warehouse technology and consumption. The market share of cyclical sector increased from 15.6% in the second quarter to 20.4% in the third quarter, financial real estate increased from 7.5% to 8.2%, consumer sector decreased from 48.0% to 47.1%, and TMT sector decreased from 28.4% to 23.9%.

Countdown to performance ranking war

Judging from the performance of public funds in the third quarter, the funds with the highest performance are mainly allocated to defense and military industry, electrical equipment, chemical industry and other industries. Science and technology funds have shown signs of falling back.

Take the general equity funds as an example. The top ones in the single quarter return of the third quarter are Boshi military industry theme, chuangcheng Hexin industrial cycle selection, and ICBC Credit Suisse strategic transformation theme.

For the coming year-end performance war, how fund managers choose the industry and the direction of allocation adjustment may bring about changes in performance.

"The improvement of domestic fundamentals has accelerated, and the bottom line of the market has been continuously raised. However, high valuation has intensified the risk of making up for the decline of strong industries at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, so as to properly realize the victory results." Boshi Fund chief macro strategy analyst Wei Fengchun pointed out.

It is optimistic about the optional consumption, such as household appliances, automobiles and insurance, which are improved at the bottom of the boom, with low institutional allocation and high valuation, as well as the consumer electronics industry with an upward boom.

Yingying of Nord Fund believes that "the market will stabilize and regain a moderate upward trend in the last quarter of this year after experiencing the overall correction of valuation dimension reduction. With the sustained recovery of the economy and the approaching of the general election, the market risk preference gradually becomes clear, but it is improving. Therefore, high-quality growth sectors, such as the science and technology sector which has benefited from the policy of invigorating the country through science and technology in the medium and long term, and the consumer leading companies, which have experienced more and more epidemic situation, have regained market attention after a correction in the last quarter or in the fourth quarter 。”

Haifutong fund Shi Minjia also holds a similar view.

In its view, the short-term market style may change, but the medium and long-term main line is still the emerging and technology industries encouraged by the policy.

"The fourth quarter may be a good time to build a position. At present, the stock market has adjusted back to a large number of high-quality individual stocks, and the valuation has gradually become reasonable. For technology stocks, the dynamic valuation has fallen to a historical low, so we should pay attention to policy catalysis, and the dynamic PE of the electronic sector is rarely lower than that of food and beverage, and the core assets of science and technology have a good odds ratio. " "Although the external shocks leading to the valuation adjustment of technology stocks will persist for a long time, the market reaction will gradually become passive," said a manager of a public offering fund in South China

So far, as of November 4, there are 8 active equity funds whose earnings have doubled this year. Among them, the return of GF high-end manufacturing fund and ABC Huili industry 4.0 fund has exceeded 110%.

In addition, it is the new energy theme of ABC Huili, the research selection of ABC Huili, the value advantages of Chinese merchants Xin'an and Nord.

According to the allocation of the third quarter reports of several funds, the fund manager's layout adjustment for the third quarter is not the same.

For example, Nord's value advantage focuses on undervalued stocks in food and beverage, medicine, home appliances and other industries, while gf's high-end manufacturing added chemical and electronic sectors in the third quarter. The current positions of ABC Huili industry 4.0 are mainly concentrated in computer, electronics, machinery, new energy and other industries.

For the fourth quarter, fund managers focus on new energy, semiconductor, 5g, high-end manufacturing, emerging consumption and other sectors, of course, uncertainty still exists.

At present, the minimum ranking gap of several funds is only a few tenths of a percentage point, and the subtle allocation gap will also bring about changes in the final results.