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"Double 11" In Late Autumn: The End Of The Wild Growth Of The Game Between Traffic And Sales Volume?

2020/11/12 10:23:00 0

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the year of wisdom, it was the year of ignorance; it was the period of faith, it was the period of doubt; it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of disappointment.

This paragraph is undoubtedly the true portrayal of the domestic e-commerce retail industry after the new crown epidemic. On one side are Alibaba and Jingdong Mall, two big e-commerce giants, both of which have set a record high in the "double 11": as of 21:00 on the 11th, tmall's sales have reached nearly 500 billion yuan and Jingdong's nearly 400 billion yuan. In addition, according to the transaction data released by tmall, from November 1 to November 11, 2020 tmall double 11 order creation peak reached 583000 / s, which was 1457 times of the first tmall double 11 in 2009.

On the other hand, the global retail industry is experiencing a cold winter. Microsoft announced the closure of 83 U.S. retail stores permanently. Macy's, a traditional department store giant, plans to lay off 3900 employees while announcing the closure of 125 stores. As many as 9805000 stores in the United States reported last year, and this year's record of more than 9805000 small and medium-sized stores in the United States will be closed down permanently, and the data shows that corhtesh will close more than one store permanently this year.

In this context, there is little choice and global consumers are moving to online channels. This trend can be clearly seen from the financial reports of Amazon, sealimited, Alibaba and Jingdong. Whether in the first and second tier cities or in the sinking market, the Internet has penetrated into all aspects of life, and the dividend of traffic has gradually dissipated.

Tieda's platform, running water's brand. A number of interviewed businesses admitted that since 2017, the cost of online sales has exceeded that of offline sales. The so-called Internet boundless does not exist in the electric business circle. New and old brands participating in the "double 11" have to lay out on multiple platforms to find more fragmented traffic and pay for it. Their marketing investment generally accounts for 10% - 20% of sales, even higher in some platforms.

How to find the balance between input and output? It may be the business people in this sleepless night, the most need to consider the problem.

Plain show

At 22:00 on the 10th, at the academic exchange center of Hangzhou future science and Technology City, the main battlefield of tmall's "double 11" Shopping Festival was still full of lights and people coming and going. At least 500 domestic and international media gathered here.

In the media center, the large screen on the wall projects the real-time transaction chart of tmall. However, tmall did not release trading data as soon as 0:00 as in the past few years. Instead, it slowly released non core data such as City Trading list and category trading list, and the exclamation of the media on the spot was no longer repeated.

It was not until 0:30 that the latest trading volume appeared on the large screen for the first time: from November 1, the real-time turnover of tmall's "double 11" exceeded 372.3 billion, of which, more than 300 brands with real-time turnover of more than 100 million yuan were listed. Tmall is expected to attract more than 800 million consumers, 250000 brands and 5 million businesses to participate in this year, which will be the most extensive and most involved session.

Lin Qingxuan, a skin care brand, has also increased its staff. This year's "double 11" unique two rounds of sales strategy, coupled with the resurgence of consumption after the epidemic, has also created a certain challenge for businesses to prepare goods. "This year's" double 11 "is both tense and busy. Just like the college entrance examination, it has been tossing and turning every year, but everyone is very happy and happy." Sun Laichun, founder of Lin Qingxuan, revealed in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that the two rounds of pre-sale arrangement of tmall make it seem that after a small year, the merchants have to prepare four warehouses for two times of pre-sale and two times of preparation. Warehouse, logistics and consumer experience link, also carried out a large degree of innovation.

At present, the orders of Lin Qingxuan on the first day of pre-sale increased by 920%. In terms of sales target, the target of e-commerce is twice that of last year, and the sales volume of offline channel is about 30%. "Last year, we sold 100 million yuan, and this year we completed 140 million yuan, with a 40% increase in sales."

Sun Laichun further revealed that both offline stores and online fans' activity rate and repurchase rate have increased compared with previous years. It seems that the consumption of young people does not seem to be greatly affected by the epidemic.

However, tmall has always been the home of beauty make-up, and it has become a must for emerging brands. And some traditional brand's reaction, in this year's "double 11" can only be described as "plain and unadorned". According to media reports, the official flagship store of tmall Gree will make a profit of 700 million yuan to consumers on November 11. Compared with last year's 3 billion yuan, this range has shrunk by nearly three quarters.

The sincerity of merchants and platforms can be perceived most by users. The complexity of the "double 11" game has become a common topic. On the e-commerce platform, payment by installments and deduction rules make users feel overwhelmed. "The" double eleven "is nothing but ordinary, and the" double eleven "with a clear mind and few desires has passed Many netizens lamented on the social platform.

Senior e-commerce industry observers, in an interview with the 21st century economic report, believe that there are not many places where the double-11 will shine in general this year, mainly due to the focus on the content of the live broadcast. "When the desire for consumer demand is not so strong, it is difficult to find a suitable point to stimulate the desire to buy. In addition, it is also because the promotion is normalized. Another brand shuffle is likely to continue in the retail industry. "

Flow "Blood Sea"

The prolonged "double 11" has given the "chopper party" more time to sweep goods. Indefatigably, they have supported the continuous warming of the show. Meanwhile, businesses are also keeping an eye on a group of data updates, especially those new brands that have participated in the war for the first time. According to incomplete statistics, on November 1, the turnover of more than 1800 new brands exceeded that of last year's "double 11" day, and 94 new brands increased by more than 1000%.

"We started to participate in the" double 11 "last year. At that time, we only participated simply. This year's investment is relatively large, and the sales volume is expected to reach 150 million yuan. Throughout November and December, we expect sales to be between 60 million yuan and 80 million yuan. " On November 4, baby greedy partner Qiu Jiannan said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that this year's sales exceeded expectations.

In the past, the binary opposition model of "Internet enterprises and traditional enterprises" that many people talk about has been unable to explain various diversified models in this business era. Innovation based on the existing sales model is also one of the key factors to promote brand growth. Even in the investment community, there is a popular saying, "all traditional categories are worth doing again."

The industry faces challenges as well as opportunities. "Baby greedy as a supplementary food snacks, there is a short shelf life problem, a large number of goods is unrealistic, because 1-3 months expired, users must maintain high repurchase behavior." Qiu Jiannan revealed that if a new brand wants to do it, it must make a huge investment in marketing. Only during the "double 11" period, baobaba's marketing investment in tmall platform was nearly 40 million yuan.

In the final analysis, it is still for the sake of traffic and attracting new users. "Frankly speaking, we may pay more attention not to the traffic of tmall, but to the number of users that tmall can give? Our products are not suitable for the low-cost mode, and tmall is reliable to a certain extent. " Qiu Jiannan further explained that the flow cost was relatively low when he started to sell goods in the shaking tone account a few years ago. The input-output ratio of 1:7 was basically achieved, but now it has been reduced to 1:1.5, that is to say, when selling 1.5 yuan of goods, it needs to pay 1 yuan of marketing cost.

In addition to marketing costs, personnel expenses, product research and development, production costs and other aspects of the cost, baby greedy in the first half of this year can still achieve profit. In the second half of the year, after the superposition of "6.18" and "double 11" promotion, profitability has become very difficult.

Qiu Jiannan still thinks it is worth it. "We value the long-term value of users and establish trust with users. We have increased the cost of the industry by 4-5 times. Originally, there may be dividends in this industry, but the dividend is not long-term. Since we can't do it for a long time, we will end it by ourselves. This is also an act of raising barriers, and the window period will be correspondingly longer. If you can't afford to play, if you can't afford to fight this war, don't come in again. "

Opportunity to shuffle

In fact, in addition to maternal and infant products, domestic cosmetics, beauty, underwear, drinks and other industries are emerging in an endless stream of new brands. Previously, pinduoduo, a new e-commerce platform, also listed cosmetics as one of the new brand plans. It is planned that in the next five years, the sales of new cosmetics brands on the platform will increase by more than 100 billion yuan, and cultivate 5 billion yuan level new cosmetics brands. Local brands, such as pelaia, oshiman, Shangmei and baiqiling, have joined pinduoduo's new brand plan.

It is worth noting that the perfect diary of local cosmetics brand has achieved a sales scale of 1 billion yuan in three years. In this analogy, pinduoduo's ambition is self-evident. However, is the high platform cost enough to support the brand?

He yeqiang, senior managing director of FTI consulting and person in charge of enterprise transformation business in Asia Pacific region, said in an interview with 21st century economic report that, generally speaking, if the brand is sold according to the traditional mode, it must be sold in hypermarkets and chain stores, which puts forward high requirements for the brand. E-commerce provides a lower channel threshold for new brands and small brands. "Only when brands have sales volume can they have market share. E-commerce makes it relatively easy for some newly started brands to take the first step quickly. If we do it in the traditional way, the cost will be very high if we have to arrange hundreds of salesmen in many cities only in the traditional channels of ordering meetings in spring and autumn. In the initial stage, e-commerce needs to make the supply chain to the extreme, in order to reduce costs. "

However, in the whole field of consumption, there is the concept of "winner take all". Increasing marketing investment has become a stepping stone. "If it's just online sales, it's very difficult to increase the output. The cost of the enterprise's production link is basically fixed. We must increase the output so that the cost can be reduced. Is marketing cost down or up? This is a dilemma. You can only go up if you invest in advertising. If you don't, the cost will not come back. " For example, if the production capacity of several large-scale factories can not be increased to 100 million, for example, if the profit and loss of several large-scale factories can not be increased to 100 million, for example, if the profit can not be increased to 100 million.

In his opinion, it has been 12 years since the double 11, and businesses are aware of their feelings. Sales promotion is also a common means. With the fierce competition and more and more preferential policies every year, brands must find a break even point.

 

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