Return To Reason After The Noise! After Double 11, The Market May Pay A Heavy Price!

After the national day, cotton, cotton yarn and other raw materials prices rose rapidly. Recently, the yarn market began to "burn down" after a big rise. For this wave of market boom driven by domestic demand and overseas orders, industry insiders generally believe that as the double 11 is getting further away, the market wait-and-see sentiment may rise. What is the current situation of yarn enterprises around the country?

Cotton price rise brings good opportunity to de stock

Before the National Day holiday, most cotton spinning mills have relatively high cotton yarn inventory, but after the long holiday, cotton and cotton yarn futures prices skyrocketed, bringing a good opportunity for cotton textile enterprises to de stock. It is understood that although some enterprises have not achieved much profit, most enterprises have achieved the goal of de stocking and withdrawing funds. At present, enterprises generally reflect that product inventory is generally low, and some factories even reach zero inventory.

A cotton mill in Anhui Province has a good business situation, and the products are not worried about sales and there is no product inventory pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of cotton price in the later stage, local enterprises should sign orders cautiously, and choose the order that is sure to be profitable according to the actual lint inventory, cotton purchase cost, profit target and other factors.

At present, most of the cotton textile enterprises producing pure cotton yarn in Henan Province have no or low stock of yarn, the price is firm, the order is full, and the domestic demand is mainly. A person in charge of the enterprise said that it is profitable to receive the current order according to the cotton price in the early stage, and the new order price will be adjusted according to the current cotton price. It is estimated that if there is no big market fluctuation, the production situation is optimistic before the Spring Festival, the increment of new orders will slow down, and the cotton mill will not allow the price temporarily. If the cotton price fluctuates greatly, the profit in the later period will be affected.

According to a Shandong enterprise specializing in differential yarn, the price of main products has increased by 2000 yuan per ton recently, and the orders are arranged to the end of the year. The inventory is lower than that in the first half of the year, and the startup rate is 100%. In order to develop the domestic market, the enterprise adjusted the product price and reduced the profit. It is predicted that due to the cold winter, the orders in the downstream thermal insulation market may increase.

Short term orders are abundant, but the future market is uncertain

Driven by the return of orders and the "double 11" shopping carnival, the order situation of yarn enterprises has improved significantly compared with the previous few months, which has been confirmed by spinning enterprises all over the world. However, regarding the future market situation, most spinning enterprises say that there is still great uncertainty.

A major vortex spinning enterprise in Jiangsu said that the yarn market was good from September to October, and it is expected that orders will start to decrease after the "double 11" and the market will become weak. Recently, the price of viscose and polyester has risen sharply, and the yarn price has also risen, which is generally accepted by downstream customers. At present, the overall startup rate of downstream is high. But the future market is not optimistic.

The orders of a textile enterprise mainly engaged in high count yarn in Jiangsu Province began to recover gradually from the late July, and began to work at full load, reaching a high level in the middle of October, and the delivery time was tight. Enterprises believe that the current downstream market is relatively optimistic, but due to the uncontrollable foreign epidemic situation, they are worried that the supply of imported raw materials and the continuity of foreign high count yarn orders will be affected, so the enterprise's future market forecast is not clear.

The market price of viscose yarn in Peixian county increased for a period of time in the early stage, and then stabilized in the near future. At present, the enterprise order is more sufficient, the inventory is small, and the startup rate is close to 100%. Most of the local spinning enterprises turn losses into profits, and downstream enterprises purchase actively. Spinning enterprises said that it is expected that the later price will be stable for a period of time. After several years of downturn, the price of core spun yarn suddenly soared this year, which indirectly caused the shortage of viscose yarn in the market.

A color spinning enterprise in Jiangsu Province has a good order situation, mainly domestic orders, and the startup rate is 100%. According to reports, the price of the products has increased by more than 2000 yuan / ton, and there is no inventory, but the product has low profit and even no profit. Orders can be extended to the end of this year. For the later market, the enterprise expects that the order quantity and product price will go down.

At present, Xinjiang pure cotton yarn production enterprises have sufficient orders, relatively high gross profit margin, and some varieties are in short supply. They keep making profits, and the product inventory has been greatly reduced. Enterprises expect that the market will improve steadily before the Spring Festival, and product inventory will remain at a low level. If the epidemic does not rebound, the situation in the fourth quarter will be significantly better than that in the third quarter. At present, the price of cotton in Xinjiang is relatively high, and there is a greater trend of decline.

At present, a cotton yarn enterprise in Hubei Province has arranged orders for a month, and the operating rate has reached 90%. The person in charge of the enterprise said that it was the enterprise looking for orders, and customers scrambled for orders after the National Day festival, but this situation only lasted for 20 days after the National Day festival, and now the speed of placing orders has obviously slowed down. Due to the financial pressure before the National Day holiday, enterprises have less raw material inventory, and there is no profit in purchasing raw materials at current price, only maintaining the operating rate. It is expected that the market will be booming around the Spring Festival, and the gross profit rate may be better than now.

Downstream price conduction is not smooth, the future market may turn weak

For fabric enterprises, the rise of cotton price, yarn price and other upstream raw materials will undoubtedly increase the production cost, but the fabric price does not rise with the rise of raw material price.

According to a denim manufacturer in Guangdong Province, its price has been raised by 0.5 yuan / M ~ 1 yuan / m, the current order is maintained for one month, yarn and product inventory have one month turnover, and the startup rate is more than 95%. The market showed a warming trend, enterprise confidence increased, profit slightly increased compared with March to April. However, enterprises are cautious about the market recovery. First, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still grim; second, the use of Xinjiang cotton can not supply some brands; third, the domestic market needs to be cultivated. In the Spring Festival, orders and raw material prices are expected to remain moderate before the Spring Festival.

Jiangsu color woven fabric prices are basically stable, local up. Local textile enterprises said that orders from Europe and the United States did not improve due to the epidemic situation, while orders from Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China increased significantly. Before and after the national day, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the profit decreased by about 20% compared with the same period last year, and the orders were arranged to the end of November. Because spinning enterprises arrange production according to the order, the inventory is less. There are many uncertain factors in placing orders, and the current customers are not sure.

Lanxi fabric enterprises said that yarn prices are rising, fabric price rise conduction is not smooth. At present, the inventory began to increase to about one month's production capacity, starting full load. If there is no ready yarn in the early stage, the profit in the past month is not up but down, and the consumption of fabric in the downstream is not as good as that publicized by the outside world. Domestic "double 11" and foreign holiday stock up is coming to an end. The end of the year is the off-season, so it is not expected to be too optimistic. The market will start again after January next year.

According to the person in charge of Guangdong's main knitwear enterprises, there was a wave of short-term market after the National Day holiday, and the yarn supply was in short supply. Affected by the rebound of foreign epidemic situation and other factors, production and sales weakened, inquiry decreased and profits declined. Downstream distribution companies slow down, inventory began to rise, prices tend to stabilize, although some factories offer firm, but the actual number of transactions is rare. Forecast with Zheng cotton futures callback market tends to rational purchasing, some weaving mills hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Market come and go fast, crazy market or will pay a painful price after double 11

The rise of raw materials before and after the national day can be described as fast as it goes. In the half month since the middle and late October, the cotton yarn futures price has dropped from 22260 yuan / ton to 20630 yuan / ton, reaching 1630 yuan / ton, or 7.32%. The sharp decline in futures prices has a serious impact on the spot sales of cotton yarn. Spot sales prices fell, sales slowed down significantly, goods are not smooth, cotton yarn began to accumulate, spinning enterprises inventory inflection point appeared.

As of November 5, China's yarn inventory index closed for 12 days. Spinning enterprises cotton yarn inventory level is still not high, there is no business pressure. However, inventory is an important factor that affects the mentality of textile enterprises. There is a huge difference in the quotations of textile enterprises in different regions. One of the factors causing this phenomenon is that some textile enterprises are not willing to reduce their prices due to their low inventory. However, most textile enterprises are still in the early stage of production orders, and many are still full capacity production. As for the later stage, although there are some orders, the downstream price is also very harsh.

In the early stage of market speculation, some Indian textile orders flowed back to China. In fact, the orders transferred to China were mainly concentrated in the home textile industry, among which towel and bed sheet orders were relatively large, which added a fire to the market after the festival. However, in the view of industry insiders, this trend is not long-term. The view of the industry is that the transfer of Indian orders to China is mainly due to the effective control of domestic epidemic situation Second, domestic cotton prices were relatively low, but in the following days, cotton prices continued to rise, and orders transferred from India could not continue. Now due to the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, foreign trade demand is also affected. If the overseas epidemic situation is not effectively controlled for a long time, the global economic recovery will be hindered, and China's exports will face downward risks again.

From 0:00 on November 1 to 0:30 on November 11, the real-time turnover of tmall's double 11 global carnival season in 2020 will exceed 372.3 billion yuan. With the departure of "gold, silver and ten", the important node of domestic demand, double-11 is gradually moving away, and the textile industry will usher in the traditional "winter".

The person in charge of textile enterprises has revealed that the crazy market in October may pay a heavy price after the "double 11". That is, the sales volume of winter clothes is not good, and it is difficult to pay the final payment of clothing customers.