Refining And Chemical Integration Becoming The "Trump Card" Of Anti Risk? Polyester Market In The First Three Quarters From The Performance Of 6 Leading Listed Companies

The year 2020, which is full of variables, is coming to an end. At present, the intensive disclosure of the three quarterly reports of Listed Companies in the capital market has basically come to an end. From the beginning of the year to the present, what are the characteristics of the polyester market? Compared with the first half of the year, has the performance of listed companies improved in the third quarter? Under the influence of the epidemic situation, which kind of enterprises have relatively strong anti risk ability? The reporter of China Textile News sorted out the three quarterly reports and the previous half yearly reports of six leading listed companies, namely Hengli petrochemical, Rongsheng petrochemical, Hengyi petrochemical, Tongkun shares, xinfengming and dongfangshenghong, to analyze the reasons behind different performance.

Hengli Petrochemical is the first enterprise in China's chemical fiber industry to realize the integrated operation and development of the whole industrial chain of "crude oil PX PTA polyester". At present, the chemical fiber industry chain of the company has formed a complete industrial chain of "px-pta polyester civil silk, industrial silk, polyester film, engineering plastics".

In the first three quarters, Hengli Petrochemical achieved a revenue of 103.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.38%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.896 billion yuan, an increase of 45.16% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, its revenue was 67.358 billion yuan, up 59.11% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.517 billion yuan, up 37.2% year on year.

In the first three quarters, Rongsheng Petrochemical achieved a revenue of 77.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.10%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.652 billion yuan, up 206.17% year-on-year.

In the first half of the year, its operating revenue was 50.282 billion yuan, an increase of 27.32% over the same period of last year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.208 billion yuan, up 206.55% year on year. From the perspective of subdivision products, the sales amount of polyester products reached 4.123 billion yuan, accounting for 8.2% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.25%.

In the first three quarters, Hengyi Petrochemical achieved revenue of 61.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.42%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.057 billion yuan, up 38.09% year-on-year.

In the first half of the year, its revenue was 39.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55%. As of the end of the first half of the year, the PTA capacity of Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 13.5 million tons / year, the new PTA capacity under construction was 6 million tons / year, the caprolactam production capacity was 400000 tons / year, the polyester fiber production capacity was 6.5 million tons / year, the new polyester fiber production capacity under construction was 1.816 million tons / year, and the production capacity of polyester bottle sheet was 2 million tons / year.

In the first three quarters, Tongkun shares achieved revenue of 32.819 billion yuan, down 11.87% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.46%. In the first half of the year, its revenue was 21.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 1.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.23%.

In the first three quarters, xinfengming achieved revenue of 23.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.16%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 260 million yuan, down 76.51% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, xinfengming achieved a revenue of 13.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 202 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.70%.

In the first three quarters, Dongfang Shenghong achieved revenue of 15.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.50%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 236 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.16%.

"Generally speaking, in the first three quarters of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the lack of demand in the downstream consumer market is a major challenge facing the textile industry, and the prosperity of the chemical fiber industry will inevitably decline. Polyester listed companies are basically large-scale enterprises, which need to ensure the continuous production of the device. Although there is a good production and sales rate in a certain period of time, the overall situation is facing greater inventory pressure. From the specific situation of enterprises, since this year, the enterprises that have earlier implemented the balanced development strategy of upstream and downstream have shown good competitive advantages and anti risk ability in the process of coping with the severe market situation A polyester industry person said so.

The epidemic situation is the main factor affecting the operation of polyester market this year. At the same time, the sharp fluctuation of crude oil price also continues to affect the "nerves" of the market.

In the first half of the year, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation, the textile downstream market demand was seriously shrinking. At the same time, the international oil price fluctuates a lot. The price of crude oil and polyester products have declined gradually in different periods of time. In addition to the accumulation of inventory, the profit of polyester products is under heavy pressure.

Another polyester industry personage said that from January to February, affected by the traditional off-season of Spring Festival holidays and the sudden outbreak of domestic epidemic, the focus of enterprises was basically on the anti epidemic. After March, the domestic epidemic situation was gradually effectively prevented and controlled, but the international crude oil price fell sharply, which was transmitted to PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament, resulting in the continuous decline of filament price, shrinking transaction volume and pushing up inventory. After entering the second quarter, China's epidemic situation has been basically effectively controlled, the internal circulation market and domestic consumption fundamentals have been restored, and the polyester industry has gradually begun to recover. After April, the international oil price fluctuated upward after experiencing a sharp drop, forming a certain support for the cost of chemical fiber. The trading volume of polyester filament was enlarged, and the price rose slightly. Overall, in the first half of the year, the lack of demand is still the biggest problem facing the polyester industry.

Taking polyester filament as an example, according to the statistics of China National fiber network, the operating rates of the industry from January to June were 78.6%, 55%, 77.4%, 83%, 89.1% and 91.4%, respectively. In this regard, the industry pointed out that the polyester industry after a number of rounds of reshuffle, especially the polyester filament industry, market concentration is high. Although a certain amount of maintenance has been arranged for the devices of large-scale polyester enterprises, the continuous operation state must be ensured, and the operation rate is obviously higher than that of downstream.

In contrast, due to the different scale of enterprises and the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, the downstream weaving industry is more seriously affected by the epidemic. In addition, the demand for terminal retail brand procurement is insufficient, and the operating rate of weaving industry is obviously insufficient in the first half of the year. According to the statistics of MFN, the operating rates of looms from January to June are 8%, 28%, 56%, 50%, 70% and 65%, respectively.

From the perspective of product price, taking dty150d spot products as an example, from January to June, the monthly average prices were 8935 yuan / ton, 8773 yuan / ton, 7930 yuan / ton, 6766 yuan / ton, 7003 yuan / ton and 7181 yuan / ton respectively.

Since the third quarter, the overall operation of the industry is still recovering, but the impact of the epidemic is still continuing. In terms of operating rate, according to the statistics of China National fiber network, the operating rates of polyester filament industry from July to September were 91.7%, 90.7% and 92%, respectively, while those of downstream weaving industry were 61%, 65% and 70%. Through comparison, it can be found that the operating rate of weaving industry in the third quarter has improved to some extent compared with the first half of the year, but it is still insufficient.

From the perspective of product price, we still take DTY 150D spot products as an example. From July to September, the monthly average prices were 6593 yuan / ton, 6630 yuan / ton and 6479 yuan / ton, respectively, and the prices were in the low range.

"At the end of September, polyester inventory remained at a high level." The head of Sales Department of a polyester filament enterprise in Jiangsu told reporters, "since this year, the price of raw materials and polyester products has fluctuated greatly, which has increased the difficulty of inventory management and increased the risk of inventory falling price loss, resulting in the fluctuation of gross profit rate of the company's products."

A research report from Everbright Securities also showed that in the third quarter, the average price of polyester filament POY decreased by about 220 yuan / ton compared with the second quarter, and the average price of FDY fell by about 290 yuan / ton month on month.

However, it is worth noting that after the national day, the domestic textile market has witnessed a round of hot market, and the operating rate of downstream textile mills has increased significantly. With the enthusiasm of downstream procurement heating up, polyester market began to appear sustained volume market, inventory significantly reduced. Under the support of the demand side, the quotation of polyester factory gradually increased, and the cash flow turned into profit.

Data from China National fiber network show that in early October, the average production and sales rate of polyester enterprises was 150% ~ 170%, and the price of poy150d / 48F rose to 5270 yuan / ton. In mid October, the average production and sales rate of polyester enterprises was 100% ~ 120%, and the price of poy150d / 48F rose to 5450 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of October, the textile downstream orders decreased compared with the previous period, and the transaction of polyester filament dropped significantly. Affected by this, the average production and sales rate of polyester enterprises dropped to 50% ~ 70%, and the price of poy150d / 48F fell to 5180 yuan / ton. Overall, in October, the average production and sales rate of polyester filament products ranged from 100% to 120%, and the inventory level was significantly reduced, basically at a reasonable level.

In terms of the operating rate, according to the statistics of China National fiber network, the operating rate of polyester filament industry was 89.3% in October; the operating rate of downstream weaving industry recovered to more than 80% for the first time since this year, reaching 85%.

"In this year's market situation, enterprises with upstream and downstream integration have a relatively good life." Many polyester industry insiders have said so to reporters. This can also be reflected in the performance of listed companies.

Hengli Petrochemical's 20 million T / a refining and chemical integration project has been put into full operation in May 2019, making a strategic breakthrough in the key production capacity of refining, chemical and aromatics.

At present, Hengli Petrochemical has an annual output of 4.5 million tons of PX design capacity, which can basically meet the raw material demand of PX for the next PTA capacity. In the first half of this year, Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit of 4.62 billion yuan; in the third quarter, its performance continued to shine, mainly due to the profit growth contributed by the refining and chemical sector.

Rongsheng Petrochemical is the controlling shareholder of the 40 million tons / year refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. is the participating shareholder of the refining and chemical project. At the beginning of January this year, the whole process of refining and chemical project (phase I) of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was opened and put into full operation. Since it was put into operation, the production of each unit has been progressing smoothly, the start-up load has been steadily increased, and the profitability has been gradually enhanced.

In the first half of this year, the sales amount of refining products of Rongsheng Petrochemical was 13.347 billion yuan, accounting for 26.54% of the revenue, and the gross profit rate was 20.98%; the sales amount of chemical products was 18.43 billion yuan, accounting for 36.65% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 98.55%, and the gross profit rate was 33.51%; the sales amount of PTA was 7.056 billion yuan, accounting for 14.03% of the revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.91%, and the gross profit rate was 5.78% 。

In the first half of the year, the total sales amount of Rongsheng petrochemical in the petrochemical sector was 38.834 billion yuan, accounting for 77.23% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 105.07%. From the perspective of its own performance, in the first half of the year, Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved 27.541 billion yuan in revenue and 4.488 billion yuan in net profit.

Rongsheng Petrochemical said that since the completion and commissioning of the refining and chemical integration project (phase I) project of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the benefits have been released significantly. In the first half of the year, despite the impact of the epidemic, refining and chemical sector made significant profits, contributing most of the performance. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue growth was mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of Zhejiang Petrochemical Project (phase I).

In the first half of the year, the refining and chemical integration project (phase I) of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. contributed 896 million yuan to Tongkun Co., Ltd., and became the main part of its profit source.

"Since Zhejiang Petrochemical Project was put into operation, it has stabilized the company's raw material supply, provided the company with PX and glycol needed for the production of polyester products, and at the same time, it has also contributed rich investment income for the company." Tongkun shares in the announcement so expressed.

On November 1, the first batch of units (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, etc.) of refining and chemical integration project (phase II) of Zhejiang Petrochemical were put into operation. On November 3, Rongsheng petrochemical and Tongkun both announced that the project (phase II) was put into operation.

For the great significance of the implementation of refining and chemical projects, Rongsheng Petrochemical said that Zhejiang Petrochemical Project is a key link for the company to adhere to the strategy of "vertical and horizontal cross and two-way development", and the project has obvious competitive advantages. Through the continuous extension of the industrial chain, the company not only enhances the level of anti risk, but also improves the sustainable profitability.

Zhang Wangqiang, an analyst of energy and chemical sector of Anxin securities, also predicted: "in the fourth quarter, thanks to the gradual warming of textile consumer market, the recovery of chemical fiber industry chain, and the expansion of gas station channels, Rongsheng Petrochemical's performance is expected to further increase efficiency. In the long run, the second phase project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is progressing smoothly at present, and there are still three phases of planning in the follow-up. The refining and chemical base with global leading scale is gradually forming, which will promote the company's profit scale to a new level. "

Hengyi Brunei refining and chemical project is one of the key projects of the belt and road initiative. The first phase of the project has been put into full operation in November 2019. At present, the designed crude oil processing capacity of Hengyi Petrochemical is 8 million tons / year.

Since it was put into operation, the first phase of Hengyi Brunei refining and chemical project has been running smoothly with high load production and smooth sales of refined oil, chemicals and other products.

In the first half of this year, the project produced 4.03 million tons of products, including 940000 tons of chemical products and 3.09 million tons of oil refining products. At the same time, the project began to supply certain quantities of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene to Brunei. In the first half of the year, the oil refining products and chemical products of the project achieved sales revenue of 9.046 billion yuan and 1.542 billion yuan respectively (external sales amount); Hengyi Brunei achieved revenue of 11.493 billion yuan and net profit of 564 million yuan, and its competitive advantage continued to improve.

"Since this year, Brunei refining and chemical project has adhered to the strategy of low inventory, increased diesel oil and reduced aviation kerosene production in time according to market demand, which greatly withstood the impact of external risks." Hengyi Petrochemical said in the announcement.

According to the announcement previously issued by Hengyi petrochemical, the second phase of Hengyi Brunei refining and chemical project will build 14 million tons / year crude oil processing capacity, 1.5 million tons / year ethylene and 2 million tons / year PX capacity.

After the completion and commissioning of phase II project of Brunei petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical will add "ethylene propylene polypropylene" industrial chain, which will be conducive to enhancing the intensive, large-scale and integration level of Brunei refining and chemical project, and also conducive to the integrated, global and balanced coordinated operation of Hengyi petrochemical industry, products and assets.

At present, Shenghong group is fully promoting the construction of refining and chemical integration project. The scale of Shenghong refining and chemical integration project is 16 million tons / year of oil refining, 2.8 million tons / year of paraxylene, 1.1 million tons / year of ethylene, etc., and is expected to be put into production by the end of 2021.

In fact, from 2019 to 2020, one of the biggest characteristics of the competition in China's polyester industry is that the large-scale leading enterprises deeply implement the integrated development mode of refining and chemical industry, and three private refineries have been put into operation. Although affected by the epidemic this year, the strategic thinking of the enterprise is clear, and the project production and new project construction are being vigorously promoted.

"With the release of PX capacity of private refining and chemical projects, large-scale leading enterprises are focusing on building a deep and integrated development mode of" crude oil aromatics (PX) and olefin PTA and MEG polyester spinning texturing "to continuously realize high-quality and efficient large-scale production, reduce costs and enhance overall risk resistance. Moreover, relying on the advantages of integration, leading enterprises are also expanding, hoping to grasp the new share of market demand in the future. At the same time, with the gradual withdrawal of the old and medium-sized production capacity in the polyester market, the market share of "head" enterprises has been continuously increased, and the degree of concentration of the polyester market has been further enhanced. "