Home >

Facing 2025: New Opportunities And Challenges Of New Energy Vehicles

2020/11/24 11:29:00 62

New OpportunitiesChallenges

On November 2, the general office of the State Council issued the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) to set the target. By 2025, China's new energy vehicle market competitiveness will be significantly enhanced, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles.

China's new energy vehicles are expected to enter a new stage of development, while facing new development opportunities. "For China's new energy vehicles, the next five years will be an extremely critical stage to realize the transformation from the primary development stage to the medium and advanced development stage. These five years should be the five years for the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. If we want to achieve the expected target of at least 20% penetration rate in 2025, we need all parties to make a lot of efforts. " On November 21, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman, secretary general and chief expert of China electric vehicle 100 people's Congress, said at the 2020 China Auto Innovation Summit held by the 21st century economic report.

What changes have taken place in the development of China's new energy vehicle market? What are the new development opportunities and challenges in the future? At the 2020 China Auto Innovation Summit, "21st century economic report" once again launched a new large-scale video interview column "new business geography of automobile" jointly with the 100 people's meeting of China's electric vehicles, focusing on the topic of "China's new energy vehicles, new challenges and new opportunities", and inviting industry experts, main engine plants, battery plants, infrastructure construction enterprises and other industrial chain parties to discuss.

The guests include: Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman, secretary general and chief expert of China electric vehicle 100 people's Congress; Zhu Jun, deputy chief engineer of SAIC Group, deputy director of SAIC technology center and general manager of Jieneng company; Shen Fei, vice president of Weilai power management; Meng Xiangfeng, assistant chairman of Ningde times; Yang Ye, senior vice president of Aodong new energy; chairman and CEO of Huanqiu automobile group Wu Yingqiu.

Materials and pictures.

The following is an excerpt of the interview:

Why are new energy vehicles hot at both ends?

Wu Yingqiu: what changes have taken place in the new energy vehicle market this year? What are the reasons behind it?

Zhang Yongwei: great changes have taken place in the new energy vehicle market this year. The two ends of the market are getting worse and the middle market is weak. The main reason is that the 2B end market has decreased under the influence of the epidemic. I think the middle market will continue to grow after the epidemic. With the gradual release of production capacity, the automobile market will be more and more hierarchical. In China, there should be a large-scale market segment at every level.

This year's high-end market is the focus of attention, but the volume is not very large. The added value of the high-end market is high, the threshold is relatively high, and the concentration will be higher in the future. In other words, there will not be too many enterprises can occupy the high-end, only a few brands, its scale growth line is a moderate speed.

This year's biggest bright spot is actually the brand downward market, that is, the market in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas. This market is characterized by large volume and wide range, but low added value and low threshold. Therefore, its future market concentration will be relatively low. There will be many manufacturers here, which is the characteristic of China.

Zhu Jun: this should be caused by changes in consumer cognition, technology and policy factors. Ten years ago, when we just made new energy vehicles, we all chose to start from both ends, small cars and buses. The subsidies for buses are very high. The subsidies for small cars are similar to those for medium-sized cars and luxury cars, while the cost of small cars is much lower.

This year's situation is different. It's not because of subsidies, but because points guide the development of cars. A very small car and a big car, the contribution on the integral is the same. Under the influence of the double points policy, Wuling's sales volume is relatively large and the pressure is great. However, mini (Wuling Hongguang Mini EV) will greatly help enterprises reach the standard of points under the existing policy system. Otherwise, it will cost a lot of money to buy points.

The development of high-end vehicles is due to China's high-end consumption trend, not only new energy vehicles, but also traditional cars. In addition, the medium-sized 100000-200000 electric vehicles compete with traditional cars in terms of cost, but subsidies have declined again. In Europe, however, the subsidy for selling cars is very good in Europe. We have a car that doesn't sell very well in China, but it has a sales volume of about 4000 vehicles a month in Europe.

With the rapid progress of technology, the change of policy and the change of consumer psychology, some new phenomena will be born. However, on the whole, the biggest driving force of new energy vehicles is technological progress.

Wu Yingqiu: what kind of development trend will China's new energy vehicles appear in the future?

Zhang Yongwei: China's new energy vehicles are driven by policies. Now the role of policies is increasingly shifting from supporting manufacturing and production in the past to supporting consumption and use. This is the trend of policy change. In this process, policies that can drive market growth in the future will be more targeted at the consumer side and the user side.

But technological progress is reducing the contribution of policy. More and more people feel that the progress of technology will make a new energy vehicle closer or faster than the fuel vehicle in terms of cost performance, which is decisive. We now see a huge demand for motorized travel in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas. If this market wants to enter the era of motorization, electric vehicles are likely to be the first to be adopted. The earliest market-oriented electric field may be the small and medium-sized cities and rural markets that grow up without relying on subsidies.

Wu Yingqiu: in the high-end market, Weilai has performed very well this year. What are the reasons behind it?

Shen Fei: Recently, the sales volume of Weilai has improved a little compared with our own in the same period, but is it really selling very well? Our global sales may only be about 2% of that of BMW. I think there is still a lot of room for our efforts.

In recent years, whether it was the most difficult time last year, or now, or since the establishment of the company, Weilai has adhered to some things that seem right now, whether it is the positioning of the car or the business model. In addition, I think we have grasped the pain points of some users. For example, users are worried about the battery life. We have separated the car from the electricity and rented the battery. Users are worried about charging, so we have made various solutions.

Wu Yingqiu: with the progress of technology, is mileage anxiety still a factor affecting consumers' purchase of new energy vehicles?

With the continuous improvement of battery density from 500km to 300km, the battery density of Mengfeng has increased from 500km to 300km. The improvement of endurance makes the mileage anxiety of consumers ease a lot, which is a relatively obvious trend. In addition, the ease of mileage anxiety also depends on the convenience of charging. In recent years, with the support of the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration, the construction of charging and changing facilities has been accelerated, and the convenience of charging and power exchange has been improved. On the whole, consumers' worries about mileage anxiety are gradually decreasing.

Now, of course, the driving range of new energy vehicles is still one of the factors. Therefore, I think battery enterprises should also strive to improve the performance of batteries and improve energy density, which is the direction of our battery factory. On the one hand, the battery life can be improved. On the other hand, under the same endurance, the battery can be made lighter, the energy consumption of the whole vehicle can be reduced, the standardization of battery pack can be realized more easily, and the power exchange will be more convenient.

Charge or change?

Wu Yingqiu: what opportunities will be brought to the new energy vehicle industry when the state vigorously supports the new infrastructure construction this year? What are the challenges?

Yang Ye: seven or eight years ago, the development of power exchange was very difficult, and many main engine manufacturers did not recognize it. However, this year, due to the new infrastructure and the promotion of national policies, there is a good opportunity for power exchange.

The development of China's new energy vehicle industry chain and the scale of industrialization are leading the world. How to make new energy vehicles go to thousands of households is a major challenge, and the core of the challenge is charging, safety and cost. In fact, the challenge of new energy vehicles can turn into such a proposition: how to establish a complete energy supply solution, so that electric vehicles are no longer troubled by charging itself, with its universality, and can play a significant role in ensuring safety at the basic level.

Fast charging always challenges the safety of batteries. Slow charging can not meet the needs of all users. It is just that changing power can meet the requirements of slow charging for battery safety and convenience of travel. Therefore, I think that we can use the technology to build a dual-purpose function, so that we can recharge the power without fast charging. Users can charge when they have time and change when they don't have time. Such a system can quickly change the electric vehicle from a small number of applicable models to universal ones.

Wu Yingqiu: what are the advantages and disadvantages of the charging and changing modes?

Zhu Jun: there are two ways in front of us. One is to fill up and the other is to change. If it's convenient to charge, we won't change it. If it is convenient to change the electricity, we will not charge it. It's a competitive relationship.

Filling and swapping is now a technical problem. The European practice is that all slow charging piles are equipped with standard power of 22 kW, and the fast charging pile will be the maximum power of 350 kW in the future. Therefore, whether it is slow charging or fast charging, it is relatively fast, and there will be less consideration on power exchange. Now, in addition to the benefits, there are also some problems. For example, if the cost is increased, it may only be targeted at a certain model, while there are so many electric vehicles. The replaced battery comes from another different model. Can the battery be installed in that car? So there's a problem with scale. Charging, as long as the pile is there, no matter what brand of car it is, you can plug it in and charge it.

Yang Ye: at present, Aodong has built nearly 300 power stations in China, and nearly 10 models of service models have been built. Next year, there will be two or three models to replace electricity in each quarter, and there are seven or eight cooperative manufacturers. In fact, we have a power station, a variety of models can be reused.

Zhang Yongwei: we have different emphases, and it is inevitable that there will be their own opinions. Generally speaking, we still hope to have a diversified energy supplement system for electric vehicles to meet the needs of users and scenes. Therefore, different scenarios and different users have different ways, which is the diversification we hope very much. However, we are also particularly concerned about the waste of investment. Because the technology iteration is relatively fast, the business model also has the possibility of subversion.

Wu Yingqiu: Weilai's power exchange mode has attracted much attention in the industry. What logic is Weilai's implementation of this mode?

Shen Fei: Weilai's power exchange has attracted much attention, but what we really do is actually a full scene power up, and power exchange is only one of the ways to supplement energy. In fact, there is only one mode of filling for oil vehicles. It is a very centralized way with gas stations as the center. However, electric vehicles are completely another set of logic, because the power grid is everywhere, every community, every parking space, every corner, in fact, has a certain degree of power supply capacity. However, no matter how hard we try, there must be a group of users in China's big cities who can't really install home filling piles. For these users, we need to consider whether they can replace power stations with gas stations as before. Because, after all, for those users without piles in these cities, it takes half an hour to charge the battery, and it takes a few minutes to change the electricity. The two experiences are totally different.

Wu Yingqiu: Weilai and Ningde times jointly set up a battery asset company this year. The business model of separation of vehicle and electricity has taken a big step. What are the reasons for the cooperation and how is the cooperation going?

Shen Fei: the battery assets company was officially established on August 18 this year. On August 20, the new company and Weilai automobile officially released the battery technical service plan. So far, the progress has been very smooth, but there are some challenges in the process. Have we thought about this innovative business model and what we are going to do in the long run. If we use a business model to do the separation of vehicle and electricity, in fact, it can not completely release the power of vehicle electricity separation. This time, when users buy a car, they can buy a bare car and issue an invoice to the user. The battery asset company will buy the battery, and then issue another invoice. The user will rent the battery. We will get this model through at the end of July. This is a big development.

Weilai and Ningde times are close partners. We do this together in the hope of bringing more things to the industry through this innovative business model. Therefore, its battery asset company is not only aimed at the users of Weilai. If there are other OEMs, other brands and other partners who want to cooperate with the battery asset company, it is OK.

Meng Xiangfeng: our cooperation with Weilai has been very in-depth, and battery bank is an important aspect of our cooperation. We are also very optimistic about the electric separation mode. First of all, this is an important way to solve the problem of high cost of car purchase. Secondly, this mode also puts forward higher requirements for the battery. Under the power exchange mode, the frequency of battery usage is increased, which puts forward higher requirements for the reliability and life of the battery. We have confidence in our products and hope that batteries can be used with higher strength and higher frequency. In addition, the technology of battery itself is making rapid progress, including the improvement of energy density and various performance. We hope that more consumers can enjoy the dividend of technological progress through the mode of separation of vehicle and electricity, which is difficult to achieve without separation of vehicle and electricity in the past. Therefore, the innovation of separation of vehicle and electricity will promote the popularization of new energy vehicles.

 

  • Related reading

Pfizer Announced A Breakthrough In Mrna Technology With 95% Final Effective Rate Of New Crown Vaccine

Technology Extension
|
2020/11/21 2:00:00
39

Reporter Observes Jifei In The Eyes Of Investors: "Agriculture + AI" Has Huge Imagination Space For Future Agricultural Science And Technology

Technology Extension
|
2020/11/17 11:29:00
15

Practice Science And Technology Self-Reliance And Self-Improvement, Zero Running Car Self-Developed Chip To Seize The Intelligent Driving Track

Technology Extension
|
2020/11/10 12:31:00
1

Lixun Precision: A Disciple Of Shenzhen Manufacturing Industry

Technology Extension
|
2020/10/30 8:06:00
3

Mobile Phone Manufacturers Gather In The IOT Camp To Open A New Ecological Campaign Of 5G

Technology Extension
|
2020/10/23 10:48:00
3
Read the next article

Interview With Chen Ning, Chairman Of Yuntian Lifei: Promoting The Company To Meet The Fourth Industrial Revolution

Shenzhen returnees' entrepreneurial stories are not uncommon, and yuntianlifei is a benchmark. Chen Ning, chairman and CEO, is the first commercial vector processor chip in China