Why Does The Domestic Carbon Fiber Market Go Against The Trend And Highlight New Highlights?

Supply exceeds demand, prices rise Too many domestic carbon fiber people did not expect, this year's market unexpectedly appeared such a rare market.

Since this year, under the background that the epidemic situation has caused great challenges to the macroeconomic operation and industrial economic operation of all walks of life in the world, the performance of well-known carbon fiber enterprises in Japan and the United States has declined sharply. However, China's carbon fiber market has gone against the trend, showing a gratifying situation of both production and sales.

What are the driving factors behind the excellent performance of China's carbon fiber industry this year? What are the outstanding characteristics of the industry at this stage? During the "14th five year plan" period, what key points should be grasped to further realize high-quality development of the industry?

From November 26 to 27, China Danyang carbon fiber and composite material industry chain innovation and development forum and 2020 annual meeting of carbon fiber branch of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association were held in Danyang City, Jiangsu Province, where the above issues were discussed in depth.

The meeting was jointly sponsored by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, Jiangsu Productivity Promotion Center and Danyang Municipal People's government, and was hosted by Danyang science and Technology Bureau, carbon fiber branch of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, Jiangsu Hengshen Co., Ltd. and Danyang high tech entrepreneurship Service Co., Ltd.

Duan Xiaoping, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation and President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association; Jiang Shicheng, academician of Chinese Academy of engineering; Zhu Meifang, academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xu Genlin, deputy secretary and vice mayor of Danyang City, Jiangsu Province; Shu Kezhi, deputy mayor and Secretary of the party Working Committee of development zone; Wu Tong, chief member of the Department of consumer goods industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology; research on scientific and technological innovation and development of the Ministry of science and technology Yu Xiaoxiao, deputy director of the center; he Yanli and Chen Xinwei, vice presidents of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association; Wang Yuping, director of national advanced functional fiber Innovation Center; Li Yangdong, party secretary and chairman of Jiangsu Hengshen Co., Ltd.; Qian Jing, general manager of Jiangsu Hengshen Co., Ltd.; as well as many domestic and foreign carbon fiber production and application enterprises, relevant universities and scientific research institutes Representatives of all units attended the meeting.

A small carbon fiber, however, has the attributes of "as thin as hair, as light as a feather, as strong as steel, difficult to compare with chips, and as expensive as gold", which has deeply inspired a group of practitioners' feelings of home and country. After 15 years of rapid development in industrialization, the domestic carbon fiber industry is not the original "stuck neck" variety.

Duan Xiaoping cited a group of data: in 2019, China's carbon fiber output reached 12000 tons, and the total demand for carbon fiber in China's market reached 37840 tons, an increase of 22% over 2018. This year, the output of domestic carbon fiber is expected to reach about 15000 tons.

Specifically, in terms of precursor technology, Xu Lianghua, director of national carbon fiber engineering technology research center and professor of material science and Engineering School of Beijing University of chemical technology, introduced that China has formed three domestic technical systems and industrial systems of DMSO, NaSCN and DMAC. Among them, DMSO precursor new technology has been included in the relevant national plans for 20 years, most domestic carbon fiber enterprises and military carbon fiber currently adopt DMSO technology; the representatives of NaSCN technology are Shanghai Petrochemical and Bluestar company; the representative of DMAC technology is Jilin Carbon valley.

The industrialization construction was also promoted in an orderly manner. Xu Lianghua introduced that the independent ability of industrialization equipment has been continuously strengthened, and the supporting capabilities such as spinning finish, carbon fiber sizing agent and structural performance characterization have made remarkable progress. The military and civilian applications have been driven synchronously, and the development momentum of engineering and industrialization has been good, and the awareness of application service has also been strengthened. By the end of September this year, the number of carbon fiber production lines with a single line capacity of more than 1000 tons has reached 13.

In terms of application, it shows the characteristics of strong market demand traction, the application field develops very fast, and solves the problem of "use out".

Relevant statistical data show that the demand of China's carbon fiber market has been growing rapidly for several consecutive years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20% in 2017, 32% in 2018 and 22% in 2019. In the total market demand, the consumption of domestic carbon fiber accounted for about 29% in 2018, increased to 32% in 2019, and continued to grow this year.

Duan Xiaoping pointed out: "overall, the market concentration of the industry has further improved. Among them, the total annual output (carbon fiber) of leading enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying, Guangwei composite materials and Hengshen Co., Ltd. is close to 80% of the total annual output of domestic carbon fiber, and the industrial technology has made obvious progress, and the specifications and product structure are more abundant. "

Jiang Shicheng pointed out: "since 2005, with the joint efforts of the state, enterprises, relevant scientific research institutes and industry associations, China's carbon fiber industry has achieved rapid development, and has formed an industrial scale with an annual output of 10000 tons. At present, China has not only formed a number of key enterprises with considerable market competitiveness, among which the production and sales of some enterprises have exceeded 1000 tons, but also some enterprises have achieved profits in the civil field. This shows that China's carbon fiber industry as a whole has reached the international advanced level. "

Xu Lianghua also pointed out: "especially during the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's carbon fiber industry has developed very fast. As soon as we formulated the development plan for the 14th five year plan this year, we found it difficult to write, but this is a good thing. Moreover, looking back 10 years ago, the carbon fiber industry participants were quite excited, but now they are generally more rational. Overall, the pattern of technological and industrial development is very healthy. "

In addition, the industry also presents some other new characteristics. Duan Xiaoping pointed out: first, the industrial structure has been further adjusted, with leading enterprises as the representative, starting to layout the central and western regions. It is inevitable that China's major carbon fiber enterprises will be located in the central and western regions, which have attracted investment from leading enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei composite materials. Next, the Midwest will become an important base for large-scale production of carbon fiber. Next, carbon fiber enterprises investing in the central and western regions can not only obtain lower electricity prices compared with the eastern region, but also obtain more policy and related resources support. Second, it has become a trend for state-owned capital to enter the domestic carbon fiber industry. Both sides complement each other in terms of advantages. However, it should be noted that "if state-owned and private-owned capital cannot complement each other, they will also face new tests."

"We should maintain the current hard won good production and operation environment." Duan Xiaoping said.

The most outstanding bright spot of domestic carbon fiber market this year is the double increase of production and sales and the shortage of supply.

Duan Xiaoping stressed: "this year, in the context of the epidemic, China's carbon fiber industry has delivered an excellent report card, which has played an important role in social and economic recovery, which is the greatest contribution to the fight against the epidemic."

Zhang Dingjin, an expert of China composite materials group, also pointed out: "this year, compared with the general decline in business performance of international well-known carbon fiber enterprises, the performance of China's leading carbon fiber enterprises is going against the trend and still maintaining a rapid growth momentum."

According to the performance report of Toray in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020 (April to June), during the period, its sales revenue was 45.4 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%; among them, the sales revenue of aerospace industry was 17.4 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 40%; its profit was 1.7 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 73%.

In the first three quarters of this year, the sales revenue of Herschel composite materials was 1.207 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 32.6%; among them, the revenue of aerospace industry was $657 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.9%; the revenue of aerospace industry was $329 million, basically the same as that of the same period of last year; the income of industrial field was 182 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%.

In the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of Guangwei composite materials Co., Ltd., a listed carbon fiber enterprise, increased by 22.49% year-on-year to reach 1.603 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company increased by 18.06% to 524 million yuan.

Among the reasons for the shortage of domestic carbon fiber, the rapid growth of wind power market demand is crucial. "The wind power market demand is too fierce, everyone is in the crowd excited to seek development." Song dewu, chairman of Jilin Chemical Fiber Group Co., Ltd.

The reporter learned that the carbon fiber sales of Jilin chemical fiber group increased significantly this year, among which the sales of large tow carbon fiber used in wind power market increased most significantly; 89 Chengdu is Jiangsu Aosheng composite material technology Co., Ltd., which supplies wind power market. The carbon fiber maintenance consumption this year is expected to exceed 10000 tons, and last year's consumption is more than 7000 tons.

Qian Jing also said that in Hengshen's total carbon fiber sales, wind power market sales ranked second, with sales volume of about 400 tons in 2019.

In fact, domestic carbon fiber this year this "supply exceeds demand" situation, has shown in 2019. According to Duan Xiaoping, in 2019, China's large tow carbon fiber is in a state of "short supply". The consumption of carbon fiber in the wind power field in China's market reached 13800 tons, a significant increase of 97% compared with that in 2018.

In addition, according to the goals of the Beijing Declaration on wind energy, it is estimated that China's wind power will reach at least 800 million kilowatts by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12%.

In this regard, Mou Shuxiang, senior engineer of Sinoma wind power blade Co., Ltd., said that with the rapid development of wind power industry, wind turbines are becoming larger and larger, the blade length is also getting longer, and the industry competition is becoming more and more intense. Continuously reducing the electricity cost has become the common goal of the whole wind power upstream and downstream enterprises. Carbon fiber composite has the advantages of high stiffness, high strength and low density, so it is an ideal material to meet the requirements of "light weight and high strength" for large blades.

"In the future, the wind power market needs to further increase the batch and stable supply of domestic low-cost carbon fiber, and the wind turbine blade and carbon fiber industry also need collaborative innovation to boost the quality and efficiency of carbon fiber wind turbine blades through intelligent manufacturing." Mou Shuxiang said.

However, Duan Xiaoping also reminded Enterprises: "the sustainable development of domestic carbon fiber, we should constantly explore new application markets, to avoid excessive dependence on the wind power market."

What is more noteworthy is that the demand from the civil aviation market also "unexpectedly" accelerated this year.

This year, with the intensification of trade friction between China and the United States, carbon fiber related equipment that China needs to import is blocked. China's civil aviation related enterprises need some equipment that can not be imported, so they began to look for foreign cooperative enterprises in China, and Hengshen was selected.

It is understood that China's enterprises currently have only a few automatic tape laying machines and automatic silk laying machines, while Hengshen Co., Ltd. has advanced automatic tape laying and automatic silk laying equipment at the same time. With the continuous growth of the demand for automatic manufacturing of advanced aviation parts, China's demand for automatic placement equipment is also gradually increasing. However, the automatic placement equipment, which was basically dependent on imports, met with "international blockade" this year. In this context, COMAC began to investigate domestic carbon fiber and composite enterprises, looking for cooperative enterprises, evaluating and constructing outsourcing supply system.

This summer, China began to carry out automatic tape laying equipment identification, special process evaluation and outsourcing supplier qualification certification for Hengshen Co., Ltd. "Our supply, first of all, must meet the commercial aircraft supply specifications of COMAC," Qian explained In October, Hengshen completed all certification work and officially became the product supplier of COMAC.

"In the second half of this year, our whole company is going all out to do this job well." Qian Jing said.

In fact, there is no chance of "falling from the sky", which is always reserved for the prepared enterprises. The reason why it was selected by COMAC this year is that Hengshen Co., Ltd. insists on and takes the work ahead.

Qian Jing introduced that around 2015, the company spent nearly 100 million yuan to import an automatic silk laying machine and an automatic tape laying machine. After buying the machine back, the company has carried out a lot of technological exploration. "Investment needs to go ahead, and the accumulation of technology and technology also needs a long process. Automatic tape laying machine is suitable for products with small curvature, such as fuselage panel, vertical tail, etc. automatic tape laying machine can realize complex parts with large curvature

"At that time, the company realized that with the shortage of labor and high labor costs, automatic tape laying machine and silk laying machine would become an option in the future. Moreover, the automatic tape laying and wire laying by manipulator can greatly improve the paving efficiency. But this kind of automation technology is closely related to the development of China's aviation industry. To be practical, the utilization rate of automation equipment has not been high since it was bought back. But now, the opportunity comes. " Qian Jing added, "from next year, as we start to undertake the outsourcing work package of COMAC, the utilization rate of our automatic tape laying machine will be improved. In addition, Hengshen will undertake the research and development of a large structural component of the domestic wide body aircraft in the near future, and will use its own automatic wire laying machine and carbon fiber composite materials. "

Qian Jing further introduced that the medium modulus carbon fiber hf40 (T800 grade) developed and produced by the company was used. At present, the company has hf40 wet spinning and dry jet wet spinning production technology, including 6K and 12K products. It has carried out multi batch performance verification, with small dispersion of performance data and stable product quality. In addition, hf40 is matched with high temperature and high toughness epoxy resin, bismaleimide resin and modified polyimide resin developed by the company to develop a variety of prepreg products used in aviation field. Among them, the high temperature and high toughness epoxy resin (eh918) matched with hf40 (T800 grade) carbon fiber prepreg system eh918 / hf40 is mainly used in civil large aircraft structural components, the prepreg can meet the automatic tape laying and wire laying process. In addition, the company has also carried out the trial production of typical structural components such as cr929 rear fuselage pressure frame and cap type stiffened panel, and the composite properties and processability of the prepreg meet the relevant requirements. At present, hf40 (T800 grade) carbon fiber has supplied about 300 tons for related projects and application markets.

In fact, the aviation market has always been the key application market of the products of internationally renowned carbon fiber enterprises, especially the civil aviation market, which has attracted much attention. This time, the passive blockade faced by China's enterprises has objectively accelerated the pace of domestic carbon fiber and its composite enterprises integrating into China's civil aviation market.

"The company's T700 Carbon fiber production capacity is currently 1500 tons / year, and the total annual production capacity of T800 products is 1800 tons. In the company's current annual sales of carbon fiber, 45% is supplied to the aviation field. Other application markets include wind power, energy, shipbuilding, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, building reinforcement, etc. In the next few years, the contribution of the aviation market to the company's carbon fiber and composite revenue "plate" is expected to further expand. " Qian Jing said.

In addition, during the meeting, the carbon fiber branch of China chemical fiber industry association was changed, and Qian Jing was elected the new rotating president. As a post-80s generation, Qian Jing has become the youngest rotating president of the branch since its establishment. Hengshen has also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with vision Energy Co., Ltd., and the two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in the development of low-cost carbon fiber bundles for wind turbine blades and carbon fiber pultrusion panels.

"Our carbon fiber industry has officially entered the post-80s era, which also reflects the new characteristics of the industry development - ability, courage and vitality." Song dewu, the third rotating president of the branch, said with a smile.

Both aviation and wind power belong to the application market of carbon fiber. Compared with the problem of "how to mass produce" in the early stage of industrialization, the breakthrough development of domestic carbon fiber needs to solve the problem of "use out", that is, "demand traction".

In the process of "using out", carbon fiber needs to be combined with the matrix material to give full play to its excellent performance. At present, carbon fiber reinforced resin matrix composites (CFRP) are widely used in the market. It is widely used in aerospace, especially in the field of aircraft manufacturing. It is also an important material for the production of weapons and equipment. The "low cost" manufacturing technology of composite materials is one of the core problems in the field of international composite technology.

"The cost composition of composite materials generally includes the cost of carbon fiber, the cost of resin matrix, and the cost of the preparation process of composite materials, including mold efficiency, molding energy consumption and fiber preform, etc.," Xu Lianghua said

According to tan Kunlun, general manager of Changzhou Hongfa Zongheng New Material Technology Co., Ltd., the low-cost manufacturing technologies of composite materials include low-cost material technology, low-cost design technology and low-cost manufacturing technology, involving a variety of composite molding technologies, such as fiber, weaving, winding, molding, pultrusion, RTM, etc.

The price of domestic carbon fiber is no longer expensive, but the price of domestic carbon fiber is no longer expensive. Of course, if domestic carbon fiber is still expensive in relevant downstream application fields, it can be said that carbon fiber is not needed in these fields. "

So, how to further realize low cost of domestic carbon fiber composites? It can be realized from two aspects: mechanism and synergy.

From the cost of carbon fiber materials, large tow technology is recognized as one of the low-cost manufacturing technologies of carbon fiber in the international market. For example, the T300 grade 3K small tow carbon fiber with tensile strength of 3530mpa and tensile modulus of 230MPa developed and produced by Toray of Japan currently costs about 380 yuan per kilogram. The tensile strength of e150mpa-2400 MPa per carbon grade is about 120-2400 MPa.

Besides materials, the low-cost technologies of composites include 2D / 3D low-cost weaving technology, prepreg low-cost technology, composite low-cost molding technology and automation equipment technology. For example, the route of low-cost prepreg technology includes three aspects: one is the low-cost and high-efficiency large tow carbon fiber development technology; the second is unidirectional and multi axial heavy prepreg; the third is the development of resin system with optimized curing characteristics and flow characteristics, including low-temperature curing system and meeting the process requirements of non autoclave (OOA) (low porosity after curing under vacuum condition) ）。

"No matter what materials are made, we need to apply traction and control the cost of the industrial chain. Enterprises should strive to reduce the manufacturing cost of composite materials from the aspects of fiber, intermediate materials (fabric / prepreg), rapid prototyping technology, automatic processing and mass production equipment, etc Kunlun said.

In terms of coordination mechanism, Xu Lianghua suggested: "the industrial chain should set up a collaborative mechanism to solve several problems, and comprehensively solve the problems of performance, high price and use value. The next step, our carbon fiber production enterprises to help composite enterprises reduce costs. From the actual situation, it is very difficult for carbon fiber enterprises to reduce the cost per kilogram of products by 10 yuan, but it is very easy for composite enterprises to reduce the cost by 10 yuan. "

In addition, the design ability and performance of the composite are also the key points. Xu Lianghua pointed out that most of the domestic application industries lack the design ability of carbon fiber composite materials, and the problem of "poor use" is prominent, which has become a kind of "hard to talk about". At the same time, the problem of unbalanced properties of composite materials needs to be solved.

The properties of carbon fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites include tensile properties, impact / CAI and compression properties. Compared with high-performance aluminum alloy materials, the tensile modulus and compression modulus of carbon fiber composites are still very high. "Our country has not paid enough attention to the tensile and compressive properties of carbon fiber composites." Xu Lianghua said.

"Next, for the application needs of wind power, automobile, rail transit, aerospace and other different application fields, enterprises should strive to find a balance between performance and price." Many people in the industry have said so.

"Ultra high strength and low cost are the two development trends of international carbon fiber in the future." Zhu Meifang said.

"In five years' time, China's carbon fiber output is expected to reach 50000 tons, but the premise is to grasp the two key points of high quality and low cost. The high quality of carbon fiber means that it can meet the application requirements of composite materials; low cost means that carbon fiber and its composites should be able to achieve low cost. " Xu Lianghua said.

In terms of new processes and technologies, Zhu Meifang introduced that the new technology of carbon fiber development in the future is the new precursor process without pre oxidation; the development trend of carbon fiber composites includes dry fiber, three-dimensional weaving, rapid curing prepreg automatic lamination technology, and rapid preparation of carbon fiber parts by stamping or injection molding.

What will be the demand drivers from the end application market? In this regard, Zhang Dingjin pointed out that it would be mainly reflected in four aspects, combining with the relevant report issued by Japan carbon fiber Association and Japan Toray "ap-g2022 medium-term management plan".

First, in the field of wind power, the construction of large tow carbon fiber production equipment will be accelerated. In order to improve the efficiency of power generation, the length of wind blade will be increased. In order to improve the modulus and reduce the weight of wind blade, carbon fiber material will be used to replace it. China is the largest wind power market in the world. At present, China's carbon fiber enterprises are taking the wind power market as an important goal to accelerate capacity expansion.

Second, hydrogen energy bottle, with the development of new technology and large-scale as the goal, to meet the demand. It is estimated that after 2021, fuel cell vehicles will start mass production, and the demand for carbon fiber in hydrogen cylinder field will further increase; it is estimated that the production capacity of fuel cell vehicles will exceed 50000 in 2022.

Third, fuel cells, which can be used in automobiles, will be widely used in business vehicles, forklift trucks, aerospace, and other fields.

Fourth, the research and development of materials for civil aviation aircraft, especially for the next generation of "Dreamliner", will bring great opportunities for carbon fiber and composites. The trend of carbon dioxide emission reduction and matrix lightweight will increase the demand for carbon fiber composites. In the next 20 years, the demand of carbon fiber for aircraft is expected to double, especially for single channel aircraft.

"When Dreamliner is realized, it will bring great industrial opportunities to carbon fiber." "It is estimated that the demand of global carbon fiber market will increase to 216500 tons by 2025," Zhang said

Undoubtedly, how to grasp these new processes, new technologies and new major needs will become an important topic in front of China's leading carbon fiber enterprises.

It is also worth noting that one side is the development of new application fields, and the other is the recycling of existing products. How to realize the "industrialization of recycling" is also a subject that China's carbon fiber industry must face in the next practice of sustainable development.

Yang Bin, chief engineer of Nantong Fuyuan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. and associate professor of Chemical Engineering College of Shanghai Jiaotong University, pointed out that while the application of carbon fiber composites is expanding rapidly, it is also facing the problems of insoluble, non melting and processing. The scrap rate in the manufacturing process is high (about 30% - 50%), and the traditional direct landfill method causes serious waste and other "pain points". From carbon fiber to prepreg fabric, to composite parts and final products, waste will be generated in all aspects of the industrial chain. In 2019, the amount of domestic carbon fiber scrap is about 8300 tons.

"Nantong Fuyuan completed the production line construction in 2019, and built a production line with an annual processing capacity of 1500 tons." Yang Bin also introduced that the company has realized industrial recovery of carbon fiber by adopting (anaerobic) pyrolysis technology, which can process carbon fiber composites from various fields, such as aerospace, sports and leisure, automobile, wind power, pressure vessel, electrical and electronic scraps and newspaper waste. Moreover, recycled carbon fiber can be reused in the fields of aviation interior decoration, automobile parts, electronic appliances and mechanical equipment.

"Carbon fiber and its composites are high-value products. Recycling is a tribute to every carbon fiber person." Yang Bin sighed.

If we look at the industry as a whole, what ideas should China's carbon fiber industry grasp during the "14th five year plan" period? It is pointed out that we should pay more attention to the independent development of the raw material system of Hehe fiber, especially to the independent development of the raw material system of Hehe fiber, especially to the independent development of the raw material system of Hehe fiber, especially the independent development of the raw material system of hehe To shorten the gap with carbon fiber leading countries; fourth, to rational investment, steady development, to avoid low-level, homogeneous competition, enterprises should deeply plough into their respective market segments, form benign interaction and competition, avoid the second round of overheated production capacity; fifth, gradually improve the recycling rate, improve the recycling level, protect the environment, and practice social responsibility.

"Carbon fiber industry is different from the conventional fiber industry. It has a certain threshold for entry. At the same time, there is a lot of stickiness in customers. Therefore, the industry may have a competitive situation of" the strong will always be strong. ". For new market entrants and capital outside the industry, we should recognize this characteristic of carbon fiber industry. In recent years, a number of carbon fiber enterprises in those years have been closed and stopped. In the first round of market shuffling, many people often see the shadow of the winners, while the losers are easy to be forgotten. However, we should not forget how the first round of investment is coming down Duan Xiaoping stressed.