Economic Cycle Adjustment Of Textile Industry

Three major economic cycles since the 21st century

Since the beginning of this century, with the change of industrial development foundation and external situation, the economic growth rate of China's textile industry has experienced many changes. To sum up, up to now, there are mainly three stages with clear characteristics of the development cycle.

The first stage: the gold development cycle since the new century before the outbreak of the international financial crisis from 2002 to 2008

At this stage, the world economy has survived the impact of the U.S. Internet bubble and the Asian financial crisis, and entered a period of peak development since the new century. The average annual growth rate of GDP is close to 5%, which is the fastest economic growth stage in this century. In 2001, China's successful accession to the World Trade Organization has provided an important opportunity for domestic industries to share the dividend of the rapid growth of the world economy. China's domestic demand market has also realized a leap in growth relying on the development of the national economy. China's market economy system is becoming more and more perfect, and the investment access in the industrial field is constantly relaxed, which plays an important role in promoting industrial technology progress and scale development.

With China's accession to the WTO and the cancellation of global textile and garment quotas, the export competitiveness of China's textile industry has been released. The broad international market has provided a strong driving force for the development of the industrial chain. Since the mid and late 1990s, the accumulated chemical fiber major technological breakthroughs and cotton textile production capacity have been brought into full play. During this period, the main economic indicators of China's textile industry have achieved double-digit growth, and some indicators have achieved a significant leap in the order of magnitude. The output of chemical fiber increased from less than 7 million tons at the beginning of this century to 10 million tons, reaching 24.15 million tons in 2008; the total export volume of textiles and clothing increased from more than 50 billion dollars to 189.6 billion dollars; the main business income of Enterprises above designated size increased from 100 billion yuan to trillion yuan, reaching 34000 billion yuan in 2008. From 2002 to 2008, China's total fiber processing and textile and clothing exports increased by 12.9% and 19.6% respectively, the main business income and total profit of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 21.7% and 28.9% respectively, and the annual growth rate of fixed assets investment reached 30.6%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the national quota has always maintained a double-digit growth, and has shown a trend of increasing Continue to accelerate the trend.

The second stage: from 2009 to 2011, the adjustment and revitalization cycle after the impact of the financial crisis

The international financial crisis that broke out in the third quarter of 2008 has a great impact on the world economy. China's textile industry has also experienced export contraction, economic downturn and employment reduction. In order to cope with the impact of the international financial crisis, the state quickly introduced ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote steady and rapid economic growth, and issued ten industrial adjustment and revitalization plans, among which the textile industry was listed.

Under the support of policy guidance and good industrial foundation, the textile industry economy quickly reached the bottom and rebounded. In 2009, the main business income of Enterprises above the designated size recovered to double-digit growth. In 2010 and 2011, the main business income, total profit, total export and investment completion achieved 20% or more year-on-year growth. During this period, under the guidance and support of national policies, the textile industry made new breakthroughs in key technical fields such as fiber materials, domestic equipment, clean dyeing and finishing, and the progress of undertaking industrial transfer in central and western regions was significantly accelerated. From 2009 to 2011, the average annual growth rate of new fixed assets investment in central and western regions was as high as 37.3%, which played a positive role in driving the growth of industry investment. Domestic demand for textiles and clothing is active, and the retail growth rate exceeds that of export. Since then, this development trend has been maintained, and domestic sales have become the absolute driving force for the development of textile industry.

The third stage: from 2012 to 2018, the deep adjustment and transformation cycle under the new normal economy

The emergence of this development cycle, on the one hand, is based on the larger scale of China's industry, on the other hand, it is based on the complex changes in the external environment. In 2012, China's total fiber processing volume has exceeded 45 million tons, reaching 50 million tons in 2014, accounting for more than 50% of the world, occupying a core position in the manufacturing supply side of the international textile supply chain. In the case of significant expansion of industrial scale, it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down. At the same time, major changes have taken place in the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad. Internationally, the world economy has been limited by the follow-up effects of the international financial crisis for a long time, with slow and tortuous recovery and uncertain and unstable factors emerging. In China, China's labor force inflection point appeared in 2012, and the constraints of natural resources and ecological environment become more prominent along with economic development. In 2011, GDP completely ended the era of double-digit growth. In 2015, it began to enter a growth period of less than 8%. The national economic development entered a new normal of slowing down, structural optimization and innovation driven development. China's comprehensive deepening reform was officially launched in 2013, and the reform of "deregulation, management and service" of government departments has been further promoted, and the domestic market economic system and business environment have been continuously improved, creating a good environment for industrial development.

At this stage, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the quota ended in 2014, with a 12-year double-digit growth trend, and the growth rate continued to decline, indicating that after the national income reached a high level, China's domestic consumption entered the stage of slowing down growth and upgrading demand. However, the rise of Internet sales channels has maintained a double-digit growth before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and its proportion in domestic consumption has been increasing. Affected by the international economic situation and the adjustment of the international industrial structure, the total export volume of the textile industry reached a peak value of 307 billion US dollars in 2014, and then decreased year by year, and maintained at the level of about 280 billion US dollars for many consecutive years, officially entered the "flat top period", and the structural focus of export products began to shift from clothing to upstream fabrics and fibers. The economic index growth of textile industry also shows the characteristics of ladder type slowdown, the characteristics of deep adjustment of industrial structure is significant, and the survival of the fittest is intensified. Since 2014, the growth rate of major industries in the central and western regions has slowed down, such as the growth rate of total investment in the central and western regions has slowed down year by year, and the growth rate of major industries such as the scale of investment in the central and western regions has slowed down year by year, and the growth rate of major industries such as the scale of investment in the central and western regions has slowed down year by year. In this aspect, the textile industry has a strong competitiveness in the overall development of green economy.

Research and judgment on high quality development cycle of the 14th five year plan

Whether the economic development of textile industry after 2019 is regarded as a new development cycle remains to be further observed and studied. However, from the current analysis, the period from 2019 to the "14th five year plan" period can be judged as a new high-quality development cycle of the textile industry.

In 2019, the total economic volume of China's textile industry has shown a state of "nearly zero growth". In that year, the total business income of Enterprises above Designated Size, the total export volume of textiles and clothing, and the completion of fixed assets investment all slightly decreased year on year, but the operation quality indicators such as asset turnover rate and finished product turnover rate remained stable. At the same time, industry development highlights continue to emerge, innovative achievements in the field of science and technology continue to emerge, large-scale refining and chemical integration projects of backbone chemical fiber enterprises have been put into full operation, international well-known fiber and fabric technology enterprises have been successfully acquired by China's textile enterprises, more than 40 Chinese fashion brands have entered the official agenda of the four international fashion week in autumn and winter 2019, and two new private chemical fiber enterprises have been listed in the world's top 500, The new stage characteristics of textile industry to accelerate the development of high quality appear.

According to the normal economic situation, the textile industry in 2020 should have shown the similar development characteristics as that in 2019, that is, the total volume does not increase significantly, and the development focus is more on the improvement of development quality and competitiveness. However, the outbreak of Xinguan broke the expected economic law, the textile industry production, domestic sales, efficiency and other indicators all showed an abnormal decline, while the total export volume was driven by anti epidemic materials such as masks to achieve more than expected growth.

Looking back on the changing course of textile industry's business cycle since this century, we can sum up several main influencing factors, including macro-economic situation, domestic policy system, resource factor environment, industrial base change, and so on. Based on this, we can briefly study and judge the economic cycle of textile industry in the period of "the 14th five year plan". (for detailed situation analysis, please refer to "textile industry under the changing situation in the past century" of this research series.)

During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the most complex and unstable influencing factor is the international macro situation. The international economic and political pattern is facing reconstruction. The economic globalization is facing the counter current. The profound impact of the new epidemic situation will make the world economy in a tortuous recovery cycle for a period of time. Although 5g mobile communication, artificial intelligence and other new technologies have strong innovation vitality, the sharp decline in the efficiency of international cooperation makes it difficult for these epoch-making scientific and technological innovations to bring the world economy back to its original level The prosperity of the early 20th century. On the whole, the slow growth of total demand and the increasing obstacles of China's industrial participation in international competition and cooperation will become an inevitable trend. In this context, the survival and development of China's textile industry is bound to be based on better competitive strength fully integrated into the domestic big cycle, and based on the "double cycle" new pattern, establish a more efficient and independent and controllable resource allocation system, so as to occupy a more favorable position for long-term development in the international industrial chain and supply chain. A series of changes in the situation mean that the output and supply structure of the textile industry will continue to be profoundly adjusted, and the main body of enterprises will also face higher development requirements. Some enterprises and production capacity that can not adapt to the requirements of the new situation and occupy a reasonable division of labor in the new pattern will gradually withdraw, and those enterprises that have survived the baptism of the market will inevitably stride to the high-end of the textile supply chain Yue style step.

It can be seen from the above analysis that during the "14th five year plan" period, China's textile industry should continue the high-quality development cycle that has appeared in 2019, and the growth rate of economic aggregate will no longer be an important reference index for judging the industry development cycle. The ability of textile industry to grasp the opportunities of modern scientific and technological innovation, to innovate the industrial development path in an all-round way, to meet the domestic demand market with effective supply under the conditions of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and greatly improving cultural confidence, and to independently establish and effectively control an efficient, green and international supply chain system and industrial layout system will be the evaluation of the development of the textile industry during the "14th five year plan" period The new logo of exhibition cycle will also be the new direction of textile industry.

Step by step, progressive, new day, persevere, line steady Zhiyuan!