What Is The Impact On Cotton Prices When The US Side Banned The Import Of Xinjiang Cotton On The Ground Of "Forced Labor"?

The U.S. government has been hyping Xinjiang related issues for a long time. In September this year, it was reported that the United States planned to issue the "Xinjiang cotton ban". Now it has used the excuse of "forced labor" to increase the pressure on Xinjiang cotton industry.

On December 3, foreign ministry spokesman Hua Chunying presided over a regular press conference. A reporter asked questions about the United States' ban on the import of Xinjiang cotton and cotton products on the ground of "forced labor".

Hua Chunying said that the Chinese side has already made a solemn stand on relevant issues. In terms of the so-called "coercion" of Chinese enterprises, the purpose is to suppress the development of some Chinese enterprises. The US practices violate the international trade rules and market economy principles, destroy the global industrial chain and supply chain, and damage the interests of enterprises and consumers in various countries, including the United States.

On December 2, local time, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that it had issued a "ban" on the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, which accounts for one-third of China's cotton production, from importing cotton and cotton fabrics from this enterprise. According to Reuters analysis, the move is one of the measures taken by the trump administration to strengthen its strong stance on China in the last few weeks of his term of office, making it more difficult for President-elect Biden to ease Sino US relations.

It is understood that the cotton output of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps accounts for one third of China's total cotton output, and it has been deeply integrated into the supply chain of China and even the world. Some textile industry experts said that it is almost impossible to import textiles from China without the participation of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps.

How does the ban affect the cotton market?

Xiong Tao, an analyst with BOC International Futures, told the futures daily that there had been news before the US New Territories cotton ban because the US presidential election had been shelved. At present, the impact on cotton price is not as big as before. However, in the medium and long term, this will accelerate the transfer of the textile industry to Southeast Asia, and China will increase the procurement of foreign cotton.

"In the future, China is more likely to reduce the import of American cotton and carry out reverse processing. American cotton is under great pressure at present, and there will be a premium for cotton and cotton yarn outside the United States. This year, the purchase and processing of Xinjiang cotton is coming to an end, and the purchase cost of seed cotton in early stage is high. After the outbreak, domestic and international consumption recovered rapidly, and the country started cotton rotation in Xinjiang, which had a certain support for cotton prices. Specific operation, cotton prices relative to most commodities, the rise is not high, the valuation is not high, the probability of a large dip is not big. " Xiong Tao added.

Wu Xinyang, a futures analyst with China Securities construction investment, also believed that the news had attracted market attention in the middle of September. At that time, the sanctions triggered a decline in the cotton market. Then came the news that the sanctions were shelved, and cotton prices rebounded. According to the feedback from the middle and lower reaches of cotton spinning industry, the market is worried about this problem again. In addition, the performance price ratio of imported yarn has been improved, and the demand for imported yarn has been expanded recently, which has occupied the market of cotton products in Xinjiang to a certain extent. In terms of policy, the state also intends to protect Xinjiang cotton through the policy of collection and storage. If the sanctions are implemented or the scope of sanctions is expanded, the strength of collection and storage is expected to be improved. However, due to the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the mechanism of collecting and storing cotton has started fusing measures, and there has been no progress in the collection and storage activities since December 1.

Some market participants who did not want to be named said that the situation of restricting the use of Xinjiang cotton in imported textiles in the United States has lasted for a period of time, which has had a great impact on the market. It is reported that some large multinational enterprises have already asked not to use Xinjiang cotton in order to avoid the uncertainty in the later stage. This is bound to have a negative impact on Xinjiang cotton consumption, and this impact will not be eliminated in the short term. It is suggested that enterprises should prepare for the situation as soon as possible.

Looking forward to the future, Wu Xinyang said that at present, cotton polarization swing in the majority. New cotton cost support, the space below is limited. In addition, if the underlying price of futures has not yet been released, the pressure on the futures may not be released. In addition, the current cotton textile prices fall, reduce profits, the downstream temporary acceptance of high cotton prices is limited. In the long run, the gradual improvement of the macro side has laid the foundation for the order recovery in the later stage, and it is suggested to buy on bargain.

"Xinjiang cotton's rush purchase of seed cotton is particularly obvious this year, resulting in high seed cotton prices. At present, the domestic textile enterprises can not hold a high price as scheduled. At present, the downstream consumption turns light, the pressure of new cotton sheath protection increases, and the short-term market has greater pressure. However, we are not pessimistic about the long-term trend of cotton prices. We suggest that processing enterprises should take advantage of the trend to hedge, and textile enterprises can increase the purchase volume at a low level. " Said the market person.