Year End Strategies Of Head Securities Companies: Three Main Lines Of Ante Cyclical, Optional Consumption And New Energy

Looking back on the coming 2020, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the A-share market has experienced several shocks. However, under the continuous structural opportunities, the overall market performance is still commendable.

At present, the prologue of 2021 is about to start slowly, and the post epidemic era has come. In the eyes of market participants, the resonance recovery of the global economy will be the main line of certainty in 2021. For ordinary investors, how to grasp this main line, the analysis of the head brokers' strategy at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is undoubtedly very referential.

Dismantling 2021 A-share market

"Under the expectation of China's economic development, a shares are still in the medium-term upward channel at present," Qin Peijing, chief strategic analyst of CITIC Securities, is optimistic about the market trend next year. He points out that the domestic economy has recovered rapidly from the impact of the epidemic, and the fundamentals of A-shares are clearly improved. It is expected that the growth rate of CSI 800 profit in 2021 will rise to 14.7% from - 2.8% in 2020. Among them, the growth rate of financial and non-financial sectors is expected to be 8% and 24.9%, respectively, and the latter will reach the highest level in recent years.

Specifically speaking, Qin Peijing disassembled 2021 A-share into three stages, namely, the rotation slow rise period, the quiet period, and the resonance upward period: from the cross-year to the middle of the second quarter of next year, the market will be in the rotation slow rise period. During this period, domestic fundamentals were clearly restored, overseas fundamentals were expected to be strengthened with vaccination, macro monetary environment was loose, policy event density was high, and market action was strong; the overall market in the second quarter to the third quarter of next year was in a calm period. During this period, the fundamental expectations have been revised sufficiently, the normalization of domestic and foreign monetary policies has become the focus of attention, the reform of the whole market registration system has been implemented, and the market is relatively calm; the market will enter a resonance upward period in the fourth quarter of next year. During this period, the developed economies basically walked out of the haze of the epidemic, the growth of domestic fundamentals slowed down, the domestic and international dual cycle was fully repaired, and the global equity market was positively resonant.

Similar to CITIC Securities, Xu Biao, chief strategic analyst of Tianfeng securities, also divides the market into three stages. He summed up the next year's corporate profits in two sentences: one is "high in the first quarter and low in the latter". It is likely that the first quarter will be a good start, but it is likely to start to decline in the second quarter; the other is a "V-shaped situation", after the adjustment in the second and third quarters, there may be a rising profit at the end of the year.

On the whole, the head securities companies show a high degree of consistency in plate layout strategy in 2021, focusing on three main lines: Pro cyclical, alternative consumption and new energy. -Gan Jun system

Xun Yugen, chief strategic analyst of Haitong Securities, will set 2021 as "a bull market bubble driven by profits and sentiment". He pointed out that under the background of the current economic transformation, China's long-term equity investment and financing era has gradually started, and equity investment has three major characteristics: track oriented, leading oriented and institutional. There is no contradiction between the long-term equity era and the bull bear cycle. In 2021, the market is expected to enter a profitable and sentiment driven bull market bubble period. With the recovery of macro economy to normal level, macro policy will be gradually adjusted. Overall, macro liquidity will not be as loose as this year, but micro liquidity will still be abundant.

"It is estimated that in 2021, the accumulated net profit of all a shares owned by the parent company will grow by 15% year-on-year, and the market sentiment will further move up from the current 60 degrees. Next year, the stock market will be an exciting year for" stocks ". Xun Yugen said.

However, there are also many securities companies on the next year's A-share market performance relatively calm. Zhang Xia, chief strategic analyst of China Merchants Securities, said that in 2021, China's credit cycle will enter a downward cycle, and interest rates will rise to a high level, forming a tight financial environment; the economy, inflation and corporate profits will accelerate to an inflection point in the second quarter; science and technology will continue the upstream cycle; after the stock market enters the policy dividend period, the marginal relationship between supply and demand in the stock market will deteriorate. To sum up, a shares will deduce the process from fundamental driving to turning point. The overall situation of A-share is high before and low after, and the expected return rate will be significantly lower than that in 2020.

Zhang Yulong, chief analyst of securities strategy of China Securities construction investment, also held a similar view, pointing out that the liquidity margin tightening brought by the normalization of monetary policy after the economic recovery will dominate the market. In addition, credit risk exposure, RMB appreciation and other factors will have an impact on the economy and the market. The driving force of the market upward mainly comes from the economic recovery. The market trend in the whole year is characterized by twists and turns. "The yield level of next year may not be as high as that of the past two years.".

In addition to the debate on the trend of A-share in 2021, many securities companies have also given a clear index point forecast this year.

Guotai Junan is expected to "maintain the pattern of 3100-3500 points in the first half of the year, and the situation will be broken in the second half of the year.". Huaxi Securities believes that the Shanghai composite index is expected to be in the 3200-3800 point range. It is estimated that the main fluctuation range of Shanghai Composite Index in 2021 is about 3200-4000 points. Northeast Securities is expected to "enter the early stage of the second bull market in 2021, and then look at 1000 points after 3800 points". YueKai securities is the most optimistic on the point level, believing that the highest expected point of Shanghai stock index in 2021 is about 4300 points.

The three major sectors have been unanimously sought after

After the pulse of the general trend, the industry configuration of subdivision is also important.

On the whole, the head securities companies show a high degree of consistency in plate layout strategy in 2021, focusing on three main lines: Pro cyclical, alternative consumption and new energy.

Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist of CICC, said that the current recovery and deepening of transactions may still dominate. Based on industry analysts' judgment on fundamentals, valuation and positions, the paper suggests three main lines of the industry in the next three to six months: one is the industries with low valuation in consumption and the prosperity may be further improved, including household appliances, automobiles, light industry and home furnishings; the second is part Advanced manufacturing industries with improved prosperity include new energy, new energy automobile industry chain, and some scientific and technological hardware; third, some cyclical sectors with low valuation and expected to be improved, including some capital goods, chemical industry, leading securities companies, insurance, and some raw materials.

Chen Xianshun, chief strategic analyst of Guotai Junan post-90s generation, called them "three golden flowers", that is, from the cycle of real estate infrastructure construction to the cycle of global raw materials, from the necessary choice to the optional, and new energy technology.

Qin Peijing said that in terms of Pro cyclical plate, it continued to recommend basic metals, energy metals and basic chemical industry. In terms of optional consumption, home appliances, cars, liquor, home furnishings and hotels are recommended. At the same time, he also put forward two rotation sidelines at the end of the year: first, the relatively stagnant varieties with good prosperity, including electronics, auto parts and light industry in the export industry chain, as well as blue chips of high-quality real estate; second, rapid rotation opportunities of pharmaceutical, new energy and food and beverage sectors.

Xun Yugen further analyzed that this round of bull market is the transformation and upgrading of cattle, science and technology and consumption is the medium-term main line. In the bull market, attention should also be paid to the rotation of other industries in the process of the main line rise. For example, the plate represented by big finance with low growth, low allocation and undervalued value may be chased by funds in the fourth quarter.

Looking forward to 2021, Xun Yugen thinks that the first echelon of plate configuration is science and technology, and the industry chain of new energy vehicles, computer, media and other industries have a large space for development. Followed by securities companies, the bull market turnover and the gold reform will improve the profitability of securities companies. The second echelon is domestic demand. Under the background of "double cycle", mass consumption is expected to rise, and mass consumption and service consumption are expected to rise.