Home >

Analysis And Forecast Of China'S Import And Export Situation In 2021

2021/1/11 11:04:00 0

ChinaImport And ExportSituation AnalysisForecastEconomic Operation

This paper will be published in the first issue of Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2021

Wei Yunjie 1,2 Zhang zhu1,2 sun Yuying 1,2 Baiyun 2,3 Wang Shouyang 1,2,3*

Prediction research center, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Institute of mathematics and Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

School of economics and management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Under the benchmark scenario of global epidemic control, slow recovery of world economy and stable growth of China's economy, it is estimated that China's total import and export in 2021 will be about 4.9 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of about 5.7%; among them, the total export is about 2.7 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%; the total import volume is about 2.2 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; and the trade surplus is about 5.5% 76.6 billion US dollars. Under the optimistic scenario, China's export and import growth in 2021 will increase by 3.0 and 3.3 percentage points compared with the benchmark scenario; under the pessimistic scenario, China's export and import growth in 2021 will decrease by 2.9 and 3.2 percentage points respectively compared with the benchmark scenario.

In 2020, thanks to the effective prevention and control measures against the new pneumonia epidemic, China's foreign trade will be suppressed first and then increased, and the year-on-year growth rate will increase quarter by quarter. The export volume from January to November will achieve a positive growth of 2.5%. In 2021, China's import and export growth is still facing great uncertainty.

On the one hand, the application of vaccines will contribute to the global economic recovery, the index of new export orders is expected to be improved, and the signing of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) will accelerate the integration of trade between China and its neighboring countries; on the other hand, the wave of developed countries' trade protection and the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemic situation may have a negative impact on China's trade growth.

1. Analysis and forecast of China's import and export situation in 2021

Import and export forecast results

As China's import and export are affected by the development of epidemic situation at home and abroad, global economic situation and domestic economic growth trend, this report discusses China's import and export forecast in 2021 in three scenarios.

1. Under the benchmark scenario, China's total import and export volume in 2021 will increase compared with that in 2020

The scenario assumes that China's GDP growth rate will be around 8.5% in 2021, the world economy will recover slowly, Sino US economic and trade frictions will maintain the status quo, and the epidemic situation in developed countries will be effectively controlled by the end of the first quarter of 2022. Under this scenario, China's total import and export volume is expected to be about 4.90 trillion US dollars in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of about 5.65%. Among them, the total export volume was about 2.74 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of about 6.22%; the total import volume was about 2.16 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 4.94%; and the trade surplus was about 576.6 billion US dollars.

2. Under the optimistic scenario, China's export growth rate will be 9.17% in 2021, and the import growth rate will reach 8.21%

The scenario assumes that China's GDP growth rate will not be less than 10% in 2021, the world economic recovery is relatively strong, the Sino US economic and trade friction will be eased, and the epidemic situation in developed countries will be effectively controlled by the end of the second quarter of 2021. Under this scenario, China's total import and export volume is expected to be about 5.05 trillion US dollars in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 8.74%. Among them, the total export was about US $2.82 trillion and the total import was about US $2.23 trillion. The growth rate of total export and total import increased by 2.95% and 3.27% respectively compared with the baseline scenario; the trade surplus was about 585.3 billion US dollars.

3. Under the pessimistic scenario, the growth rate of China's export and import in 2021 will be about 3.34% and 1.72% respectively

The scenario assumes that China's GDP growth rate will be around 7% in 2021, the world economic growth rate will continue to decline, Sino US economic and trade friction will intensify, China's epidemic situation will be repeated, and overseas epidemic situation will maintain the status quo. Under this scenario, China's total import and export volume is expected to be about 4.76 trillion US dollars in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.62%. Among them, the total export was about US $2.67 trillion and the total import was about US $2.10 trillion. The growth rate of total export and total import decreased by 2.88% and 3.22% respectively compared with the baseline scenario; the trade surplus was about 568.8 billion US dollars.

Analysis on the main influencing factors of China's foreign trade in 2021

1. In the second half of 2020, China's new export order index continues to rise; looking forward to the global economic recovery in 2021, China's exports may continue to grow

According to the world economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2020, it is estimated that the world economic growth rate will be about 5.2% in 2021, among which, the growth rate of developed economies is about 3.9%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is 6.0%. The latest economic data show that the pace of economic recovery of many economies is faster than expected after they have walked out of the "great blockade".

In November 2020, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI), Japan's manufacturing PMI and the euro zone's manufacturing PMI were 57.5, 49.0 and 53.8, respectively, all maintaining a growth trend. Although the epidemic situation continued to recur, the global demand continued to recover in a clear direction. At the same time, China's PMI new export order index has continued to rise since May 2020, reaching 51.5 in November 2020, which also indicates that China's exports may continue to grow.

2. The progress of overseas epidemic prevention and control has increased the uncertainty of China's export

In autumn and winter, the activity of the virus increased with the climate adjustment, temperature and air pressure changes. In addition, the virus mutation significantly increased the risk of epidemic infection, which increased the uncertainty of China's export growth.

1. The aggravation of epidemic situation directly impacts external demand. The second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has led to a tense situation of medical resources in some European countries and the United States. The isolation policy adopted by the government has impacted the European and American economies from the demand side and increased the risk of recession, affecting China's external demand. However, to a certain extent, it has promoted the slowdown of the export of epidemic prevention materials in China, and may even rebound slightly.

2. The time point of epidemic control is uncertain. At present, many countries have made important progress in the research of new coronal pneumonia vaccine, but the time for overseas vaccine production and overseas epidemic situation to be basically controlled is uncertain. Once the overseas epidemic situation is under control, foreign demand will gradually stabilize, and the growth rate of China's export may decline due to the high base number, but it will still remain at a high level. In addition, overseas countries may enter the replenishment stage, which is expected to become the next growth point to support China's exports.

2. Review and analysis of China's import and export situation from January to November 2020

From January to November in 2020, China's total import and export volume is 4173.41 billion US dollars, up 0.6% year on year. Among them, the total export volume was 2316.65 billion US dollars, up 2.5% year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019; the total import volume was 1856.75 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, 2.7 percentage points smaller than the same period in 2019; the trade surplus was 459.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 86.17 billion US dollars compared with the same period in 2019 (Figure 1).

Figure 1 import and export situation from January 2018 to November 2020 (US dollar pricing)

From January to November 2020, the total import and export volume of China will be 29044.1 billion yuan, up 1.8% year on year. Among them, the total export was RMB 16129.1 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year, 0.9% lower than that in the same period of 2019; the total import was 12915.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, an increase of 0.8% compared with the same period in 2019; the trade surplus was 3214.1 billion yuan, increased by 634.6 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2019.

1. In the first three quarters of 2020, China's exports will be suppressed first and then increased, and the year-on-year growth rate will increase quarter by quarter.

At the beginning of the year, China's total export volume dropped sharply due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Since March 2020, China's epidemic situation has been effectively controlled. A large number of foreign trade enterprises have resumed work and production, and the backlog of export orders has been released. In March 2020, the year-on-year decline in China's total exports narrowed to - 6.6%.

With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control in China, and the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemic situation, after the suspension of overseas production, the demand was passively transferred and concentrated to China, and the export of epidemic prevention materials increased significantly. In April 2020, China's total exports increased by 3.4% year-on-year and 8.1% month on month. Since the second half of 2020, with the first wave of overseas epidemic under control and entering the normalization stage, overseas demand has gradually rebounded, and industrial production has been restarted accordingly. In the third quarter, China's total export increased by 8.8% year-on-year.

2. The over expected export growth is related to China's export substitution to other countries

From April to November 2020, China's total export volume will be 1838.74 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The increase of China's export share to the United States and the European Union is mainly export substitution to Japan and South Korea; the increase of export share to ASEAN is mainly the export substitution to Japan; the substitution effect of exports to Vietnam, South Korea and other Asian emerging economies is not obvious, which is more related to local economic development and industrial chain transfer and restructuring.

In terms of commodities, China's mechanical and electrical products, furniture, miscellaneous products, base metals and their products have strong comparative advantages in international trade, and are expected to maintain export substitution after the epidemic; while plastic and rubber products, chemicals, optical and medical instruments, transportation equipment and other products may be temporary export substitutes. For example, China's auto parts exports have a temporary substitution effect due to the impact of production obstacles in the automobile industry during the epidemic period in Japan and the European Union.

3. Affected by the adjustment of China's industrial structure and the return of manufacturing industry in developed countries, the proportion of processing trade import and export in China's foreign trade has decreased year by year, while the proportion of general trade import and export has continued to increase

From January to November 2020, China's general trade imports and exports totaled 2496.82 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the export volume of general trade was US $1371.31 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year; the import volume of general trade was $1125.51 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Over the same period, China's total import and export of processing trade was US $991.07 billion, down 5.7% year-on-year.

Among them, the export value of processing trade was 629.15 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%; the import volume of processing trade was 361.92 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%.

From January to November in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the growth rate of China's processing trade import and export was 6.5%, - 9.1% and - 5.7% respectively. Over the same period, China's general trade import and export growth rates were 15.7%, 1.0% and 1.8% respectively, which were significantly higher than that of processing trade. From January to November 2020, China's import and export of processing trade accounted for 23.8% of foreign trade, while that of general trade increased to 59.8% (Figure 2).

Figure 2 import and export of China's mode of trade from 2010 to 2020

4. The cumulative export of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products has achieved positive growth, and the textile export has increased significantly

From January to November 2020, China's exports of clothing and textiles were US $123.57 billion and US $141.65 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of - 10.2% and 29.6%, respectively; the export volumes of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products were US $1374.84 billion and US $694.22 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.1% and 4.7%.

5. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, and the trade between China and ASEAN has entered a new stage

From January to November 2020, China's top four trading partners are ASEAN, the European Union, the United States and Japan. Since the "upgraded version" of China ASEAN free trade agreement was fully implemented in early 2019, trade between China and ASEAN countries has increased steadily. By the beginning of 2020, ASEAN has surpassed the EU and become China's largest trading partner.

From January to November 2020, the total import and export volume between China and ASEAN will reach US $609.58 billion, accounting for 14.6% of China's total import and export. Among them, exports to ASEAN amounted to 340.62 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.7% of China's exports; imports from ASEAN amounted to 268.96 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.5% of China's imports; China's trade surplus was 71.66 billion US dollars, accounting for 15.6% of China's total surplus. On a monthly basis, the year-on-year growth has increased steadily, indicating that China's trade with ASEAN is growing very solidly.

The signing of RCEP on November 15, 2020 marks a new stage of trade between China and Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, especially ASEAN. After the implementation of RCEP, the total number of zero tariff products in regional trade will reach 90%, and a large number of trade facilitation measures will be launched, which will objectively promote the further growth of trade between China and ASEAN, which will be one of the main driving forces of China's trade growth in 2021. It is worth noting that Sino US economic and trade frictions and the outward transfer of low-end labor-intensive industries are also the driving forces for the rapid growth of trade between China and ASEAN.

3. Policy suggestions

1. Strictly control risks, strengthen the monitoring, early warning and analysis of trade and investment policies of major economic countries and regions and emerging market countries, and accelerate the pace of opening up to the outside world

Analyze the possible impact of relevant policies, and actively take countermeasures to promote the steady development of China's trade. We will continue to improve export credit insurance and other supporting policies, and expand the coverage of export credit insurance. Under the general principle of strictly controlling major risks, we should further accelerate the pace of opening up, promote economic and technological cooperation with other countries and regions, actively promote the "belt and road" construction, and promote enterprises with conditions to further integrate into the global supply chain by means of alliance, merger and reorganization.

2. Seize the golden window period when China's vaccine "leads" and China takes the lead in comprehensively controlling the epidemic situation, continuously promote practical cooperation with international trade partners, and create an external trade environment conducive to China

The recurrence of overseas epidemic situation has increased the uncertainty of China's export to a certain extent. Therefore, we should continue to optimize the trade structure, fully dispatch the production enthusiasm of epidemic related industries such as medical devices and vaccines, improve export control policies, and reasonably increase the export of related industries according to the national policies.

3. Actively expand in-depth cooperative relations with more trade partners to jointly cope with challenges and major risks from the United States

We should fully realize the inevitability, long-term nature and complexity of Sino US economic and trade frictions, make long-term response plans, and reduce the possible serious impact of economic and trade frictions on China's economy. We should pay close attention to the economic development of ASEAN and actively explore the local demand and market of ASEAN. We will actively promote the early entry into force and implementation of the RCEP agreement and reduce the barriers to free trade in the region.

  • Related reading

Attention: Ten Major CSR Events (International) Released In 2020

Industry dialysis
|
2021/1/4 10:34:00
0

Expected Uncertainty: Inventory Or Impact On Next Year'S Textile And Clothing Market

Industry dialysis
|
2020/12/31 16:23:00
0

Explore The Pioneer Model Of Product Innovation! "2020 Ten Categories Of Textile Innovative Products" Commendation Activity Held In Taiyuan, Shanxi Province

Industry dialysis
|
2020/12/28 20:47:00
18

Hot Spot: The Opening Ceremony Of The International Symposium On Chinese Costume Culture 2020

Industry dialysis
|
2020/12/23 13:35:00
2

Analysis On The Current Situation And Development Prospect Of China'S Fast Fashion Industry In 2020

Industry dialysis
|
2020/12/22 13:19:00
23
Read the next article

2021年中国进出口形势分析与预测

本文即将刊载于《中国科学院院刊》2021年第1期   魏云捷1,2张珣1,2孙玉