Sales Skills: Auto Production And Sales Will Decline By 2% In 2020, And New Energy Vehicles Will Soar

According to the prediction of CAAC, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 1.8 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40%.

On January 13, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") released sales data for 2020, which showed that China's automobile production and sales completed 25.225 million and 25.311 million respectively, down 2% and 1.9% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1999.4 million and 2017.8 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% and 6.0%.

Despite the negative growth of China's automobile market for the third consecutive year, under the severe impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the decline in production and sales in 2020 was significantly narrowed than that in 2019. The China Automobile Association said that "the market recovery greatly exceeded expectations".

From the perspective of market segmentation, thanks to the national efforts to promote the development of new infrastructure, the commercial vehicle market will take the lead in accelerating in 2020, and the annual sales volume will show a substantial growth. The passenger car market will continue to grow from May 2020. Since July, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles have continued to show a significant growth year-on-year, with the annual sales exceeding 1.3 million for the first time. After ending the downturn of the first eight months, automobile exports began to recover in September, and the export volume in November and December set a new record for two consecutive months.

Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, believes that from the perspective of the development trend of the automobile industry, with the steady recovery of the national economy, the recovery of consumer demand will be accelerated, and the overall potential of China's automobile market is still huge. Therefore, it is estimated that 2020 will be the bottom year of China's automobile market, and the year-on-year growth rate will be 4.4 million %。

2020: luxury car blowout and independent breakthrough

On the whole, in 2020, China's automobile market fell to the bottom affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, then rebounded from the second quarter, and recovered steadily in the third and fourth quarters, and the annual sales decline gradually narrowed.

"In 2020, one of the biggest hot spots in the passenger car market is the rapid growth of luxury brand passenger cars, while the overall performance of low-end vehicles is relatively low. One of the main reasons is that it has been driven by consumption upgrading in recent years. " Chen Shihua said.

Specifically, the decline of automobile consumption is mainly in the market below the third and fourth tier cities and the new car market below 100000 yuan. The high-end car market keeps growing, while the performance of SUV market is obviously better than that of cars, showing obvious consumption upgrading characteristics.

Although China's passenger car market fell by 6% in 2020, the luxury car market has maintained a substantial growth of more than 24% since April. There are obvious characteristics of consumption upgrading in the market.

According to the data released by previous manufacturers, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi, the three first-line luxury brands, will reach a record high since entering the Chinese market in 2020. Among them, BMW group sold 777400 new cars in China (including BMW and mini), with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; Mercedes Benz sold 774400 vehicles in China, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%; the total sales volume of Audi brand in China's automobile market was 726300, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%.

In addition, in 2020, the recovery of SUV market is better than that of sedan, and the annual production and sales scale of SUV exceeds that of sedan for the first time. In 2020, the sales volume of SUVs will reach 9.461 million, a slight increase of 0.7% compared with that in 2019, while the sales of sedans will be 9.275 million, down 9.9%.

On January 13, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China ride Association, told the 21st century economic reporter that this was due to the upgrading of consumption. At the same time, the number of SUV joint venture products increased and the layout was gradually in place.

FAW Volkswagen's cumulative sales volume was 2.611 million, up 1.5% year-on-year. FAW-VW is the only enterprise in China with a sales volume of more than 2 million vehicles, winning the sales champion. This is closely related to the launch of a number of SUVs by its Volkswagen brand and Jetta brand. However, with the accelerated layout of joint venture brands, Chinese brands can no longer rely on SUVs as easily as they did five or six years ago.

In 2020, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars will reach 7.749 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and the market share is only 38.4%. The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has been declining for three consecutive years and is at a low point. The decline rate of independent brand passenger cars is higher than the overall level of the car market, and the living space is further limited.

It is worth noting that the market share of independent brands has rebounded since October. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, believes that the impact of the epidemic on low-income people is even greater. With the release of China's brand market, the market share of independent brands has obviously recovered.

Of course, with the competition in SUV market becoming more and more fierce, it is difficult for independent brands to support sustainable development of products only relying on low prices for sales. Moreover, under the background of gradually liberalizing the share ratio of joint ventures, independent brands also need to further narrow the gap with joint venture brands and launch positive competition with them.

Under the general trend of consumption upgrading, in 2020, independent brands have significantly accelerated the upward attack of brands. Among them, many brands have also made certain breakthroughs. For example, the sales volume of Hongqi brand doubled and exceeded 200000 for the first time. The annual sales volume of high-end brands of Geely Automobile reached 175000, an increase of 37%.

"In the future, the trend of brand upgrading in the passenger car market will not change, and the medium and high-end varieties will definitely become the dominant market demand in the future." Chen Shihua said.

Magic year of new energy vehicles

In 2019, affected by the decline of subsidies, China's new energy vehicles will have a negative growth for the first time in a decade. In the first half of 2020, subsidies continued to decline, adding to the impact of the epidemic, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline, falling to the bottom.

However, since July, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to warm up, driving the annual production and sales to achieve positive growth year-on-year. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and 10.9%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric passenger cars exceeded 1 million for the first time.

It is worth noting that in 2020, China's private consumption market of new energy vehicles will grow significantly, and the market is experiencing a transition from policy driven to market driven, showing high-quality development.

In 2020, the pattern of new energy vehicles in China will also change. With the rapid rise of emerging forces represented by Tesla, Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile and ideal automobile, SAIC GM Wuling has become popular with its Hongguang Mini EV as its main low-end market, while traditional automobile enterprises such as BAIC new energy and Geely perform poorly.

According to the data from the China Travel Association, Tesla Model 3 has become the best-selling new energy vehicle in China in 2020 with the sales of 137500 vehicles. Hongguang Mini EV, which was launched in the second half of the year, has won the single month champion for several consecutive months, ranking second in the annual sales volume with 112800 vehicles.

The high-end new energy vehicle market with intelligence as its selling point and the low-end market with cost performance as its selling point will become two important forces supporting China's new energy vehicles in 2020.

However, BAIC new energy, which has been the champion in China's pure electric vehicle market for seven consecutive years, has encountered unprecedented difficulties in 2020. According to the production and sales announcement released by BAIC bluevale (600733. SZ), BAIC new energy will sell 25900 vehicles in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 82.79%.

With the vigorous promotion of "new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035)" and the promotion of "double points" policy, new energy vehicles are expected to usher in sustained and rapid growth in the future.

According to the prediction of CAAC, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 1.8 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40%.

The auto market is expected to grow by 4% in 2021

After three consecutive years of decline, China's auto market is expected to return to the growth track in 2021.

CAAC predicts that the total sales volume of China's automobiles will be 26.3 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, 21.7 million passenger cars increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and 4.6 million commercial vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%.

The reason for this judgment, Xu Haidong explained, is mainly because the macroeconomic will continue to recover steadily, local governments will continue to stimulate, and enterprises will continue to maintain sales promotion.

However, as the international situation is still full of variables, it should be noted that the shortage of chip supply in the near future will also have a certain impact on global automobile production, and then affect the stability of China's automobile industry.

Previously, VW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Bosch, mainland China and other international well-known auto companies and parts enterprises have said that the shortage of chips has affected automobile production.

In December 2020, 21st century economic reporter learned from different sources such as automobile enterprises, parts enterprises and automobile industry personages that due to the shortage of core parts such as electronic components including automobile chips, some factories and individual models of FAW Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen adjusted their production plans, reduced production shifts or suspended production in a short period of time.

This kind of impact has appeared in some automobile enterprises. According to the data, in December 2020, the sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen was 157500, but the output was only 125800.

In December 2020, Bosch and people from the mainland said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that although they are actively looking for solutions and semiconductor chip manufacturers have begun to expand production capacity, the shortage of chip supply is expected to take at least half a year to improve.

"The chip shortage started in late December, which has a great impact on the production of the first quarter of 2021 and is likely to have an impact on the second quarter. However, as far as the whole year is concerned, the impact of chip shortage will not be too large, and it is difficult to make quantitative estimation at present. " Chen Shihua told reporters of the 21st century economic report.