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Behind The Birth Of The Fourth Photovoltaic Company With A-Share Market Value Of 100 Billion: How About The Bubble?

2021/1/15 11:58:00 94

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On January 14, Zhonghuan shares (002129. SZ) failed to continue the strength of the previous trading day, and its share price was adjusted. By the end of the day, the company closed at 30.15 yuan / share, down 6.77%, with a total market value of 91.4 billion yuan. On the same day, Longji shares (601012. SH) and Tongwei shares (600438. SH) were also recalled. The stock prices of the two leading PV stocks continued to fall in recent two trading days.

As the fourth photovoltaic company with A-share market value of 100 billion yuan, Zhonghuan shares have been in the forefront of the A-share PV sector since this year, and its market value reached 101.4 billion yuan on January 13. But now, the secondary market for photovoltaic as the representative of the new energy companies share price bubble debate four. Under the multi space confrontation, some leading photovoltaic companies are facing valuation adjustment pressure.

"In the past year, the stock price of photovoltaic leading companies has increased greatly, and it is foreseeable that the stock price of photovoltaic leading companies will be back in the short term." An analyst of the new energy industry told the 21st century economic report that the photovoltaic concept will be "out of the spotlight" in the A-share market in 2020, and the share price of some leading stocks has doubled, but the rapid rise in share price is "overdraft" the company's valuation.

It is worth noting that, behind the sharp rise in the share prices of leading photovoltaic enterprises, institutions have become the main driving force. Wind statistics show that, taking the shareholding situation up to the end of the third quarter of 2020 as an example, Longji shares, Tongwei shares, Zhonghuan shares, etc. all show the characteristics of institutional group holding.

Recently, there have been four debates on the stock price bubble of new energy companies represented by photovoltaic in the secondary market. IC photo

Leading enterprises

Recently, the polarization of A-share market makes many investors smell the "crisis". "Most of the individual stocks did not rise, but the market index soared, obviously unreasonable." Some investors told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the value of many leading stock markets has repeatedly reached new highs and institutions have made a lot of money, but most retail investors have been complaining.

As the most concerned concept plate of A-share in 2020, photovoltaic plate can be described as a unique branch. According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, the stock prices of 20 A-share photovoltaic companies increased by more than 100% in the whole year last year. Among them, sunshine power (300274. SZ), Jinlang Technology (300763. SZ) and Maiwei shares (300751. SZ) ranked the top three, with 589.16%, 515.83% and 380.58% respectively. In addition, the hot leading stocks Longji shares and Jingao Technology (002459. SZ) increased by more than 200%, while Tongwei shares and Zhonghuan shares also increased by more than 100%.

However, the recent stock price trend of PV leading stocks callback seems to have issued an early warning, and the valuation pressure caused by the rapid rise of stock price gradually appears. On January 14, Longji's shares fell more than 6%, and the share price fell below 100 yuan at one time, which also made the latest market value of this photovoltaic enterprise with the highest market value in the world significantly reduced.

Longji shares is a "institutional group stock" to the letter. According to data provided by wind, as of the end of the third quarter of last year, a total of 814 institutions (or institutional products, the same below) held 1.124 billion tradable shares of Longji, accounting for 29.83% of the company's outstanding shares. It is worth noting that all of Longji's shares are currently in circulation, and more than 70% of them are freely tradable shares. This means that 40% of the freely tradable shares are in the hands of institutions.

However, in the second quarter of last year, the number of Longji shares held by the institutions was even greater, accounting for 36.34% of the tradable shares, and nearly half of the freely tradable shares were held by the institutions. Under the fanatical effect of institutional ownership, Longji shares achieved the largest single quarter increase since 2016 in the third quarter, reaching 84.16%. And when the stock price continuously set new highs, it also created a "wealth Carnival". In the case of the decline in the shareholding ratio in the third quarter, the market value of shares held by the institutions as at the end of the third quarter was 84.287 billion yuan, an increase of 28.527 billion yuan compared with the end of the second quarter.

Tongwei, another photovoltaic company with a market value of 100 billion yuan, has a more obvious feature of organization grouping. By the end of the third quarter of 2020, the proportion of Tongwei shares in circulation held by 309 institutions was 67.56%, and the stock market value was 76.997 billion yuan. At the end of the second quarter, the proportion of Tongwei shares held by institutions was as high as 73.69%. And with the stock price rising sharply in the third quarter, the market value of institutional shares has also increased in the reduction. As of the end of the third quarter, the value of institutional stock market holdings increased by 22.081 billion yuan compared with the second quarter.

In fact, the 21st century economic report reporter statistics found that there are many "institutional group stocks" in the A-share photovoltaic plate. In addition to Longji shares and Tongwei shares, the institutional shareholding ratio of Zhengtai Electric (601877. SH), foster (603806. SH), easyst (300376. SZ) and other photovoltaic stocks accounted for more than 60% of the circulating shares. Among them, at the end of the third quarter of 2020, the market value of Chint electric appliances and foster was 42.706 billion yuan and 36.429 billion yuan respectively, with heavy positions.

It is worth mentioning that sunshine power, which ranked in the market value of 100 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, is a laggard among the institutional group stocks. Compared with Longji shares and Tongwei shares, although the cumulative stock price increase of sunshine power in the first three quarters of last year was not small, the real outbreak time point occurred in the fourth quarter. Wind data shows that as of the end of the third quarter of last year, institutions held 27.04% of the shares in circulation of sunshine power, with the stock market value of only 8.059 billion yuan.

However, in the fourth quarter, the proportion of institutional shareholding increased significantly, which can be reflected in the changes in the shareholding of Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect. As of January 13, this year, in the shareholding structure of sunshine power, the proportion of shares held by Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock connect systems in free circulation was 9.43%, a new high in nearly a year.

Controversy over the "bubble" of PV leading stock price

Recently, an internal channel communication of 10 billion private equity of ningquan assets triggered the "bubble" debate between long and short sides on new energy stocks including photovoltaic.

"We don't think it's a good time to invest in stocks of photovoltaic, lithium, electric vehicles." Ningquan assets said that the agency has gradually withdrawn from the new energy related stocks, "because the current cost performance ratio has been very unfriendly to investors."

"Maybe some strong and lucky leading enterprises can resolve the valuation through time and become the real king in the end, but most of the new energy stocks that have been hyped may only be able to digest the valuation by the sharp decline of their stock prices in the future." Ningquan assets that.

But then, Chen Yu, a representative of the bulls and general manager of old private equity Shennong investment, issued a "counterattack": "photovoltaic, new energy and smart cars are all new directions for industry breakthrough. Don't give it to them, to whom? Don't let them have bubbles. Who can have bubbles? " It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the leading companies in the fields of intelligent electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, new energy photovoltaic, biological medicine, semiconductor and military industry.

However, the fact is that as the leading PV stocks continue to rise in 2020, the institutions as a whole are reducing their positions. According to the data provided by wind, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, the institutional shareholding proportion of leading photovoltaic companies such as Longji, Tongwei, Chint, foster, Zhonghuan and sunshine power has been declining.

"At present, the overall valuation of leading companies is at a relatively high level. In this round of structural bull market, the companies selected by the market are indeed companies with excellent governance, and the fundamentals are very stable." Star fund manager Xie Zhiyu recently said in the live broadcast that if the current valuation is on the high side, the next evolution route may take time to digest the valuation.

However, some institutional sources told the 21st century economic reporter that the institutions will still select leading stocks in the future market, "even if the short-term part of the stock due to valuation correction, but will still buy later."

Wind photovoltaic index (884045. WI) shows that as of January 14, the overall P / E ratio of the index was 51.1 times, far higher than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen index. Among them, there are 16 photovoltaic companies with a P / E ratio of more than 70 times, and the latest P / E ratios of CNC (603185. SH), sunshine power supply and central shares have all exceeded 80 times.

"High stock prices ultimately need to be supported by performance." The above-mentioned new energy industry analysts told the 21st century economic report that the capital market's expectations for the leading photovoltaic companies will be reflected in the stock prices. However, if the expectations are too high, the bubbles will appear and the gap will also be fed back to the stock prices.

Taking CNC as an example, as the black horse company in the photovoltaic industry in 2020, CNC has won tens of billions of orders in the past year, becoming one of the first-line silicon chip suppliers in the domestic photovoltaic industry. In November 2020, Trina Solar and Dongfang Risheng signed a five-year long single crystal silicon wafer supply agreement with Shanghai CNC, with a total contract amount of more than 21.6 billion yuan.

Huge orders ignited the stock price of CNC. In the fourth quarter of last year, the company's stock price rose by 90.97%, and recently reached a record high. But after the stock price rose too fast, the price earnings ratio of CNC has soared to 92.8 times. On January 14, the company's share price fell to a limit.

 

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