Behind The Intensive Financing Of Real Estate Enterprises In The Beginning Of The Year: The Peak Of Debt Repayment Will Reach 1.2 Trillion, And The Debt Will Mature Within One Year

At the beginning of 2021, real estate enterprises are intensively financing in the bond market. Since January, more than 30 enterprises have disclosed their plans to issue bonds, and the total scale of issuing bonds at home and abroad has reached 100 billion.

Although this round of bond issuance has the inertia of "rushing" at the beginning of the year, two important backgrounds can not be ignored.

In 2020, the "three red lines" policy for real estate financing management and the centralized management system for real estate loans in the banking industry have been issued successively, which will limit the debt scale of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. At the same time, 2021 will be the largest due debt of real estate enterprises.

According to a report recently released by the shell Research Institute, the debt due in 2021 (excluding the ultra short-term bonds to be issued in 2021) is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a historic breakthrough of the trillion mark.

"Three red lines" superimposed debt repayment pressure will make real estate enterprises usher in the most tense period of cash flow. Affected by this, the operation strategies of real estate enterprises such as land acquisition and investment will be adjusted, and the growth rate of scale will inevitably slow down. In the longer term, the development thinking of the industry is gradually changing.

Shell Research Institute recently released a report that the maturity debt scale of real estate enterprises in 2021 is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. IC photo

Tight cash flow will be normal

High quota, low interest rate and dollar debt are the main features of this round of real estate financing. In terms of cost, the final coupon rate of the 2.5 billion yuan 5-year corporate bonds issued by green city group was only 3.92%; the inquiry range of coupon rate of 1 billion five-year corporate bonds to be issued by Yuexiu financial holdings was as low as 3.3% - 4.3%.

The interest rate of US dollar bonds issued in the same period is also slightly lower than that of last year. For example, the $1.2 billion bill to be issued by country garden has a maximum interest rate of only 3.3%.

From the point of view of the purpose of issuing bonds, in addition to replenishing funds, it is also an important consideration to borrow new bonds to repay the old ones. Some enterprises have replaced the old debts with higher interest rates into the relatively cheap and longer-term new bonds.

Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, told the 21st century economic report that although the beginning of the year was the traditional peak period for real estate enterprises' financing, the intention of enterprises to seize the policy window period was also very obvious. Since last year, the Prudential Management System of real estate finance has been tested, which makes enterprises realize that the mode of large-scale debt development is difficult to work. In particular, the "three red lines" policy will directly limit the debt scale of enterprises.

However, before the "three red lines" policy is fully implemented, enterprises can still manage their debts flexibly. The emergence of this round of bond issuance is due to the "breakthrough" factor in the window period.

In fact, delaying the debt repayment cycle through debt replacement also helps to alleviate the short-term debt repayment pressure. According to the report released by Shell Research Institute, since 2018, the debt repayment scale of real estate enterprises has increased rapidly year by year. In 2021, the maturity debt scale of real estate enterprises is expected to reach 1244.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a historic breakthrough of trillion yuan.

The arrival of the peak period of debt repayment is caused by the rhythm of issuing bonds in the past. Shell Research Institute pointed out that in the past five years, the issuance cycle of real estate enterprise bond financing concentrated in 3-5 years. It is expected that in the next 3-5 years, real estate enterprises can achieve a substantial reduction in speed. during_this_period_ , _the_cash_flow_of_enterprises_will_remain_tense_ ._

In order to maintain sufficient capital supply, the annual financing amount set by real estate enterprises is usually higher than the maturity debt scale. However, according to the statistics of the above-mentioned institutions, the gap between the two has gradually narrowed since 2018. This also means that if you can't get funds from sales, the cash flow of real estate companies will gradually become tense.

Fan Jianping, chief economic analyst of the state information center, also said at the recent "12th Real Estate China Forum", among the "three red lines", the most influential one on real estate enterprises is "cash short debt ratio can not be less than 1 times", which will help real estate enterprises to maintain sufficient cash flow.

Equity financing ratio or increase

Since the tightening of real estate financial management last year, the self-help action of real estate enterprises has been launched, which is specifically manifested in focusing on sales, controlling costs and expanding financing.

A person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing told the 21st century economic report that the company started debt replacement in the second half of last year, replacing some short-term debt with growth debt, thus reducing the scale and proportion of short-term debt. This year, this work is still a focus of the company.

At the same time, the company also put forward a series of more detailed requirements in internal control, such as reducing the proportion of "three fees", reducing the budget, improving the sales collection rate, etc.

Even so, it can't guarantee the safety of enterprise's capital. In an internal self-test in December, the company still hit a "red line.". And according to the deduction, if the market turns cold in the future and needs to supplement cash flow through promotion, the company's high-quality projects seem to be insufficient, and the enterprise will face the risk of profit decline.

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that in the short term, speeding up the promotion, actively promoting sales and paying close attention to the collection are still the top priorities of the real estate enterprises' work. But in the long run, the ability of real estate enterprises to pay back is closely related to their investment ability, operation ability and product strength. Therefore, the future is still the competition of enterprise internal force.

Financing capacity is equally important, but most respondents believe that although debt replacement is in full swing, once the current "window period" is lost, there seems to be little room for enterprises to maneuver.

58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute believes that in the future, the requirements for reducing debt and reducing leverage of real estate enterprises will become more clear, and the implementation will be further strengthened. Especially for the top ranked high debt real estate enterprises, it will become the key control object.

The agency said that in financing, as the scale of domestic and foreign debts of real estate enterprises is difficult to increase significantly, in order to ensure that enterprises develop according to the original rhythm, real estate enterprises will seek more equity financing to ensure the development and construction of projects and land acquisition. Therefore, the proportion of equity financing will be significantly increased in the future.

In addition, the M & a market is likely to gradually warm up. In order to reduce debt and guarantee cash, the future target of M & A will also increase.

However, Fan Jianping also pointed out that under the background of macro-economy and overall monetary policy, the purpose of prudent management of real estate finance is to stabilize the market rather than suppress it. From the "three red lines" and the specific requirements of the centralized management system of real estate loans in the banking industry, the control of the total amount of real estate financing in the future is "not tense", and the monetary policy is very flexible. While solving the problem of real estate speculation through a long-term mechanism, we will continue to support the release of just needed demand.

he_said_that_the_new_supply_trend_of_monetary_policy_in_line_with_high_-_quality_development_will_gradually_take_shape_in_2021_ ._ The real estate industry should gradually get used to the strategic direction of the development of the whole period of the "fourteenth five year plan".