Housing Boom In School Districts Of First Tier Cities: The Mystery Of Second Hand Housing Inventory

On January 17, Wang Xiaokai sent a popular wechat article about the soaring housing prices in Shanghai school district to his classmates. He said in doubt, is Shanghai's second-hand housing going to skyrocket?

Wang Xiaokai lives in a community in Pudong. The counterpart public primary school is Zhuyuan primary school, which is a typical school district house. According to its disclosure, the recent housing transactions in the community are significantly more than in the past, with prices up 10% a week. Wang Xiaokai lives in a total of 12 units. Since 2017, four units have been sold, all of which are families with children in kindergarten.

As a matter of fact, since the implementation of the new policy in 2020, the changes in Shanghai school district housing are very obvious. School district housing from the number of transactions and prices, are showing a rapid rise in the state.

The school district housing in the first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has driven up the volume and price of second-hand housing, which is the main manifestation of this round of housing price rise. In 2021, the second-hand housing prices in first tier cities will rise in an all-round way. According to the Statistics Bureau, in December 2020, the second-hand housing prices in the first tier cities have increased significantly. However, Shenzhen has not risen the fastest in the past month, and Shanghai and Guangzhou have caught up.

Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the demand for school district housing in the first tier cities increased significantly, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing. The most obvious performance was found in Qiaowei school district at the end of this round. A large number of people studying abroad returned, increasing the market demand.

Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the demand for school district housing in first tier cities is obvious. IC photo

New policy: housing prices rise in school districts

The 21st century economic report reporter visited Shanghai's intermediary stores and found that the number of transaction units in school district has increased significantly recently, and the price jump of owners is serious. If a community enters the stage of no housing supply, as long as one house comes out, the case that the owner jumps the price by 2 million yuan a night has also appeared.

According to the intermediary, after the introduction of the new policy of private lottery in 2020, the pattern of junior high school and Primary School of public private school will change greatly (high school has not been impacted too much for the time being). Shanghai is a typical primary school junior high school stage of private strong public weak city, in this round of policy reform, the pattern of junior high school and primary school, has undergone earth shaking changes.

Shanghai School District Housing premium is not strong, attention is not high. "However, after the private lottery, this pattern may change significantly. The advantage of" stability "of public primary schools and junior high schools will appear, attracting more parents to buy school district houses corresponding to public schools." An intermediary said to the buyer who came to consult.

Oriental Manhattan, a famous school district housing district in Xuhui District, has always had at least 40 housing units on sale, and now only 12 are available. In August 2020, a set of 194 square meters of housing in the community was sold with a total price of 18.8 million yuan. At the beginning of this month, the same type of house with parking spaces sold for a total of 27 million yuan; another 407 square meter flat on the top floor, with a total price of 50 million yuan, was also quickly sold in two weeks.

According to incomplete statistics, the most expensive housing in Shanghai school district has exceeded 200000 yuan / m2. In other first tier cities, school district housing is no exception. Beijing's most expensive school district housing is about 250000 yuan / square meter, while Shenzhen school district housing is currently up to 320000 yuan / square meter. He Qianru, director of Meilian property National Research Center, said that the high price of school district housing is not directly related to the allocation of educational resources.

Is the market unsustainable?

A second-hand housing is a linkage market. Zhongyuan Real Estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei analysis that this wave of market continued to the Spring Festival after the small Yangchun. In 2020, the sales area of commercial housing is 1760.86 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%; the sales volume of commercial housing is 17361.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7%.

In 2020, China's real estate history can still be broken under the epidemic situation. Zhang Dawei pointed out that the main reasons are as follows:

1、 The overall loose credit policy, residents' medium and long-term credit of 5.95 trillion, broke the historical record, and the overall credit policy was relatively loose; second, although the regulatory policy was tightened in the second half of the year, the loose policy was the mainstream, the talent policy was blowout, and some cities appeared obvious innovation, stimulating market demand. During the year, more than 100 cities lowered the settlement standards, which increased the demand for house purchase; 3. After the epidemic, the demand for house purchase increased, especially the sharp decrease of overseas investment and the return of funds, and the residents' demand for improvement also increased significantly; 4. The national regional differentiation, especially the eastern part of the country became the leader, and the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta witnessed a general rise in house prices. However, the central and western regions are slightly stable, and some regions even continue to adjust. In addition, the growth rate of real estate investment in China increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the funds put in place by real estate enterprises increased by 8.1% and the national loans increased by 19.63 trillion yuan. Zhang Dawei believes that the national real estate investment has begun to recover in an all-round way.

But another senior in the industry does not think this round of market is sustainable. He pointed out that there is a high probability of second-hand housing price jump in Shanghai recently. On the one hand, the price of first-hand housing has risen significantly, on the other hand, it is caused by school district housing. Generally speaking, the driving force of this round of housing price rise is the superposition of multiple factors: (1) the promotion of capital liquidity; (2) the release of the replacement demand of house buyers in the last round of market (2016-2017); and (3) the demand for school district housing: after releasing the second child, Shanghai has a wave of small birth peak of registered population during 2016-2017.

The collective Carnival of intermediary and capital?

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that the intermediary personnel released the information of insufficient inventory in their speeches to customers. There is a saying on the market that "the existing stock of second-hand houses in Shanghai is 42000 units. According to the current rate of 27000 units per month (up to 29000 units in December 2020), there will be no second-hand houses to sell in Shanghai after two months". In this regard, Lu Wenxi, an analyst in the Central Plains real estate market, believes that Shanghai's new listing volume is about 10000 sets per week, about 40000 sets a month. According to the average monthly turnover of 30000 sets, there are still 10000 units not traded in a month.

According to its disclosure, at present, the Shanghai Housing Authority has not conducted statistics on the inventory of second-hand houses. In other words, there is no inventory data of second-hand houses, only institutions have counted the listing data every week.

Lu Wenxi also pointed out that the school district housing is actually a small part of the school district housing. The school district counterpart school defined by the school district housing is a public first echelon, which is estimated to account for about 3% of the overall market and is not the main force. According to Xu Dong, founder of Xindong real estate, school district houses account for about 30% of the second-hand houses sold recently in the company's stores, and this proportion is almost the same in the whole Shanghai market.

Xu Dong told the 21st century economic report that the recent rise in housing prices in Shanghai school districts can be seen that in March 2016, Shanghai implemented a five-year purchase policy for non Shanghai residents. In the last two years, a large number of people have successively met the five-year social security age limit. The number of house purchase qualifications released by these groups is a large number. However, when the lottery probability of first-hand houses is too low, they are more inclined to buy school district houses; the epidemic situation has led many students who originally planned to study abroad to find jobs in China, preferring Shanghai as their first choice. Therefore, students demand for house purchase.

Xu Dong believes that the flow of funds into the Shanghai property market is also very obvious, demolition and reconstruction, monetary compensation, releasing a large number of house purchase funds; Shanghai liberalizes the talent policy: 985 college graduates directly settle down, the settlement policy is relaxed, releasing 20000 house purchase indicators; investors purchase more houses through the company, generally speaking, if you open a company in Shanghai, you can buy a house with an investment of 30 million; in 2020, you can buy a house In addition, the rise of bulk commodities (steel and cement), consumer goods, means of living, labor costs and land prices all contributed to the rise of Shanghai's house prices.

Lu Wenxi believes that this is the performance of structural imbalance in the market, not a big wave of real estate market. This time, school district housing and new housing rose more, but the "old broken small" increase in the suburbs did not beat the market.

(Wang Xiaokai is a pseudonym)