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Partial Stock Fund Issue Blowout, Boom Fund Climax Repeatedly

2021/1/20 12:11:00 0

200 Billion! Partial Stock Fund Issue BlowoutBoom Fund Climax Repeatedly

In 2021, the A-share market is out of a wave of bull market. At this time, the new fund issue is hot, and it is sold out in one day, with proportional placement and 10 billion solar base appearing again.

For a long time, there is always a "magic curse" of the fund in the A-share market. As long as there are funds with sales of more than 10 billion yuan in a single day in the bull market, the bull market of A-share will reach the top, while the explosive fund often fails to achieve good results.

At this time, will the "Curse" of the fund reappear?

Frequent fund explosion

As of January 19, about 30 partial equity funds have been established, with a total scale of over 200 billion yuan.

Since this year, 29 new funds have been sold out.

According to incomplete statistics by reporters, 22 new funds have been issued since the beginning of 2021, with a scale of more than 10 billion.

Among them, the competitive advantage subscription scale of e fund managed by Feng Bo was as high as 239.858 billion yuan on January 18, creating a new single fund subscription scale in the history of public funds, far exceeding its 15 billion yuan raising limit, and the final placement ratio was as low as 6.2537%.

At the beginning of 2021, there are a lot of top ten billion fund. According to the 21st century economic report, according to the fund-raising target and confirmed proportion of wind data, in addition to the competitive advantage of e-fonda, there are more than 20 billion yuan of funds attracted by e-fund: South alpha A (71 billion yuan), Penghua Huizhi optimization a (67.1 billion yuan), Fuguo value creation a (32.5 billion yuan), Huaxia Xinxing growth a (31.2 billion yuan), Guangfa balanced optimization a (298.42 billion yuan) In addition, Xingquan Hexing was closed for two years (27.3 billion yuan), Qianhai open source high-quality enterprise held a (26.7 billion yuan) for 6 months, and Jingshun great wall core Zhaojing (absorbed 24.1 billion yuan).

According to the statistics on January 17 by Xun Yugen of Haitong Securities, more than 200 billion partial equity funds have been issued since the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the potential scale of funds entering the market in the future is 1.8 trillion, of which 600 billion have been established and 1.2 trillion are to be established.

"Driven by high returns and restlessness in spring, investors' enthusiasm for subscription is still hot, and there are few high-quality objects that can be invested at present. The products issued by excellent fund managers are chased by investors, and eventually there is a situation of over allotment, which is likely to continue." Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, said.

The magic spell of hot money fund turns a corner

So, at present, the sales of hot money funds have reached the highest point in history. Will the magic spell of blockbuster funds reappear?

When we look at it again, how are the top money funds in history now? In fact, there are many lessons to be learned.

"Historically, most of the top-notch funds ranked in the bottom half." A fund manager told reporters.

In 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index rose as high as 96.66%; in October of that year, the market index once rose above 6000 points. The core growth of China Post was established on August 17, 2007, with a issuance scale of 14.957 billion yuan, but the stock market fell sharply in 2008. The fund has been established for 13.5 years, with a total return of only 2.54%.

On June 12, 2015, the Shanghai stock index once stood at 5178 points. In the bull market, e fund new normal fund was established on April 30, raising 14.7 billion yuan. The total return has been - 22% in the past six years, and has not yet turned a loss.

The industry believes that the magic spell of fund explosion exists, especially when the fund is issued intensively, it often corresponds to the stage high point of the market.

Zhang Ting said: on the one hand, the match between the size of fund managers and investment methods is good, but with the substantial increase of scale, the matching between investment methods and scale will deviate, and the excess return will show a downward trend; on the other hand, many high-yield funds tend to have concentrated style and position industry, and their income elasticity and explosiveness are also obvious Stronger, and in the market in a relatively high position, whether to find a more cost-effective target. In addition, another important reason is whether the market will experience a correction after a sharp rise.

However, today's "hot money fund curse" seems to have a turning point.

For example, on February 18, 2020, Chen Guangming's Ruiyuan balanced value fund had a full day subscription amount of 120 billion yuan, setting a record for domestic public funds. Wind data shows that the return since its establishment is 72%, and the average return of partial stock hybrid fund is 48%, which is far higher than the average return.

Zhang Ting analyzed: "the performance of the historical blockbuster funds is good or bad, in the final analysis, it depends on the investment ability of fund managers. Last year the establishment of the fund, due to the market point is relatively low, income has shown a good rise

"There used to be a mantra that once sold 10 billion funds in a single day in the bull market, which basically meant that the market was going to peak. Until the second half of 2019, this mantra had been effective, but in fact, with the non speculation of housing and the breaking of rigid cashing net value of financial products in the past two years, the charm was broken, and the whole asset allocation was more favorable to equity funds." One fund manager said.

How to grasp the risk

"The biggest risk of explosive fund is that the return is lower than expected." One fund manager said.

"According to our statistics, nearly 90% of the equity funds established before 5178 A-share on June 12, 2015 have exceeded 5178. Therefore, even if you buy a fund at a high valuation in history and hold it for a long time, the probability rate can still get positive returns. So I think it is better to buy funds than to buy stocks at a high point. " Said the fund manager.

"But now the bigger risk is that you expect too high, because the average return rate of stock funds in 2019 is 45%, and in 2020 it is more than 50%. Then this year, we are all holding such a money making expectation, so I think the return of short-term blockbuster funds will be lower than expected." Said the fund manager.

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, also said that the performance of institutional investors represented by the fund has attracted the attention of a large number of investors. Last year, the average return of the fund reached 30% - 40%, but this relatively high return is difficult to sustain, and the past performance can not be used to predict the future performance.

At present, in the overvalued market, how to control the risk of explosive fund has become the focus of attention.

Feng Bo, the proposed fund manager who created the competitive advantage of e fund, a new fund with a new subscription scale in the history of public funds, said that for the establishment of the fund's positions, one was to control the pace of building positions. At the initial stage, he took absolute return and control withdrawal as the main objectives, hoping to give investors a relatively stable position building period. Second, focus on the investment opportunities of Hong Kong stocks with high cost performance, and the companies with reasonable valuation and competitive advantages in a shares.

"In 2021, the market volatility is relatively large and the valuation level is relatively high, which will test the ability of fund managers to conduct in-depth research and seize opportunities. The stronger the ability, the better the net value performance of funds. We believe that the market will provide more investment opportunities in the process of valuation fluctuation. " Feng Bo said.

In fact, industry insiders believe that the issuance of a large number of new funds will bring a steady stream of incremental capital and value investment philosophy to the A-share market. The proportion of institutional investors in A-share market will be higher and higher. Value investment will become the most mainstream investment concept, and the market of a stock market will be further promoted.

Zhang Ting suggests that investors should try to choose products managed by fund managers with good long-term performance sustainability, fund managers should have the ability to carry incremental funds, and try not to increase positions substantially when the market is extremely hot.

 

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