A-Share New Year'S Opening "Core Assets" Plummeting Vortex A Premonitory Risk Logic Dispute

During the Spring Festival, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose sharply, and the 7-day reverse repurchase of the central bank significantly contracted, which only triggered the market after the holiday. The deeper reason is that "under the condition of tight liquidity margin, continuous overvalued value is unsustainable".

The new year's opening of A-share market is not quite the same. The Mao index fell 0.53% after a 2.90% fall on February 18, while the photovoltaic and new energy leaders such as Longji shares and Ningde times fell 4.33% and 2.39% respectively.

On the contrary, the small and medium-sized enterprises are booming. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive days. The actual net purchase of funds from the North was nearly 10 billion yuan. The chemical industry rose sharply again. The trading limits of 20 shares such as Zhongtai chemical and Xinghua shares were up and down, nonferrous metals remained strong, and the trading limits of nine stocks such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd. and Tianshan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd

Behind this, there is a trend of risk logic transformation.

Take the 21st century economic reporter's continuous tracking of a company as an example, the company's rate will probably be st, but it has also soared in recent two days. The company has cut back since the second half of 2020.

Where does the wind come from and where it blows?

The beginning of Spring Festival in dispute

"It's time for the small and medium-sized plate to turn around."

An institutional researcher lamented on the social platform.

In the two trading days after the year of the ox, the A-share market has "dived" and small and medium-sized stocks have "rebounded", and the market's call for "style change" has become increasingly fierce.

As a result, it seems that the researchers who have suffered a lot of white eyes should be elated.

On February 19, the A-share index recovered slightly after the early session. By the end of the day, the Shanghai index and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.57% and 0.35% respectively, while the growth enterprise market index narrowed down, closing down 1.04% from a sharp drop of nearly 4% in the morning.

This divergence is not limited to the A-share market.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, the core targets of institutional group stocks in the Hong Kong stock market also showed obvious signs of diving. For example, meituan-w fell by more than 1.03% on February 19 after falling by more than 5% on February 18, and the Hang Seng technology index also fell by 3.23% and 0.29% respectively on February 18 and February 19.

"No matter whether the adjustment of Baotuan shares is diving or not, the price performance ratio of continuing to buy is seriously insufficient." Orient Securities believes that.

In fact, this view is also the consensus of some institutional investors at present: "the group capital has been loosened", "the valuation of group stocks is too high" and "it is certain that the valuation will not be carried out in 2021, but will be converted to EPS pricing".

As a result, the trend of the two trading days after the year of the ox did not exceed many people's expectations.

On February 18, the first trading day of the year of the ox, the Shanghai stock index rose by more than 2% in the morning, quickly broke through 3700 points, and then fell back again. The closing index rose slightly by 0.55%. At the same time, the Shenzhen composite index changed from red to green, falling more than 1.22%; the gem index fell the most, with the index falling more than 2.74%. Among them, Guizhou Maotai as the representative of the fund heavy positions become the main force of the diving.

On the second day, although the three major stock indexes rebounded in the afternoon and the A-share market had a significant profit-making effect, their main drivers had little relationship with the leading stocks which had an astonishing rise in the early years, mainly from the small and medium-sized stocks ignored by the market.

During this period, the fundamentals of core assets have not changed.

Taking the liquor sector as an example, during January, the leading liquor makers successively issued performance forecasts. In 2020, Guizhou Maotai produced 50000 tons of Maotai Liquor Based liquor and 25000 tons of series liquor based liquor. It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 97.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 45.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 10%.

Wuliangye is expected to have a revenue of about 57.2 billion yuan in 2020, with a net profit of about 19.9 billion yuan, an average increase of 14% over the same period of last year; Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to increase its revenue by 1.911 billion yuan to 2.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.08% to 18.6%; and its net profit is expected to increase by 866 million yuan to 1.156 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.56% to 55.47%. The overall net profit growth of Luzhou Laojiao in 2020 will also exceed 20%.

Or the fundamentals

For A-share investors, the most significant wind vane is undoubtedly liquor plate.

On February 18, the liquor index fell 3.03%, on February 19, the liquor index fell 0.52% at the beginning of the trading, and then went down all the way down to nearly 4%. However, the liquor index rose rapidly in the end, and finally rose 0.71%.

Many institutions put forward more data to prove that "fundamentals can support the logic of overestimation".

According to the grassroots survey data of liquor in Spring Festival released by Guoxin Securities, the overall supply and sales of liquor in Spring Festival are booming, and the supply of high-end liquor Maotai still falls short of demand. The shipment volume of Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao is slightly higher than expected. The overall performance of secondary high-end liquor is stable and the differentiation is increased. Fen Liquor and Maotai flavor liquor are sold well in Spring Festival.

During the Spring Festival, liquor production and sales are booming.

According to the feedback from the research channels of securities companies, the dynamic sales of high-end liquor in the Spring Festival slightly exceeded the expectation. The sales volume of Maotai liquor increased by double-digit before the Spring Festival. However, the market was out of stock after the 20th of the twelfth lunar month. The wholesale price of bulk bottles remained stable at around 2400 yuan, and the wholesale price was above 3200 yuan, showing a strong demand attribute.

Wuliangye, on the other hand, plans to release 8000 tons before the Spring Festival, most of which will be delivered to February to March. During the Spring Festival, the year-on-year growth rate of Wuliangye is about 15%. Some regions benefit from the contribution of supermarkets and group buying, and the year-on-year growth of shipment has reached more than 30%.

This contrast extends to the whole group.

Leading enterprises that were highly sought after earlier in the market, such as Mindray medical, Ningde times, BYD, Midea Group, Hikvision, etc., also fell sharply after the festival.

In the view of many market participants, the high valuation of group stocks and the tightening of liquidity margin are the main reasons for triggering the "loosening" of group stocks.

"After the festival, group funds have been loosened, leading to the adjustment of Baima shares against the trend, and part of the funds flowed into the blue chips in the middle plate. After the festival, the capital was slightly tightened, and the market volatility increased significantly. " Zhang Yukun, the fund manager of the Oriental fund, pointed out to reporters of the 21st century economic report.

On January 18, the central bank launched a 200 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. The bid winning interest rates were 2.95% and 2.20% respectively. On the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, the central bank withdrew more than 260 billion yuan. In the eyes of some investors, the move is a signal that the central bank is mildly tightening monetary policy.

According to Yang Xia, director of investment and investment of Xuanyuan, the sharp rise in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds during the Spring Festival and the obvious contraction of the 7-day reverse repurchase of the central bank are only the fuse triggering the post holiday market. The deeper reason is that "under the condition of tight liquidity margin, continuous overvaluation is unsustainable".

"We observed the spread of the 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States, and found that there was a positive correlation between the spread and the valuation of stocks held by foreign investors in the long run. In January, we noticed that the spread of 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States has gradually narrowed, but the valuations of these stocks are still rising. Therefore, we concluded at that time that the trend of continuous rise in group stocks will not last long." Yang Xia said.

Yang Xia further added: "during the Spring Festival, the fundamentals have not changed much, but the stock price has obviously reversed. For example, the dynamic sales of liquor in the first quarter, the data is very good, and there is no problem with the EPS of these subject matters. The main problem is that the valuation is high, and there are problems in the matching degree of performance and valuation, and the price performance ratio."

Pro cyclical, is it feasible?

A good news is that the current A-share earning effect is still obvious, northbound funds are still pouring in.

According to wind data, on February 18 and 19 alone, the net purchases of Beishang capital reached 5.073 billion yuan and 9.563 billion yuan respectively.

However, the investment direction of the market has changed significantly. On the other side of the loose core assets, the small and medium-sized stocks of A-share market ushered in the "spring".

Chemical industry, nonferrous metals, breeding and other cyclical plate ushered in a big explosion, including chemical plate Zhongtai chemical, Xinghua shares, Xinxiang Chemical fiber and other nearly 20 shares trading limit. Nonferrous Metals in tin industry shares, Tianshan aluminum, Ningbo Fubang and other 9 shares trading. The concept of pork is particularly eye-catching. The trading limits of Zhengbang technology, tianbang shares, Tang Renshen, Tiankang biology, new hope and aonong biology are all on the rise.

"The post holiday market cycle plate led gains, in line with previous expectations. On the one hand, the Spring Festival holiday commodity prices have gone up; on the other hand, the peak season of demand for returning to work after the festival is coming, and the fundamentals of the cycle plate have strong support. " Zhang Yukun said.

In Zhang Yukun's view, the current Baotuan shares do have a high valuation phenomenon, and a certain range of adjustment is reasonable. There is a similar situation in the Hong Kong stock market, and the trend is close.

Yang Xia also pointed out: "it remains to be seen whether the style of (investment) must be switched. However, in the long run, it will never be small without brains. Its starting point is still the marginal expansion of EPS, that is, the industries with obvious improvement in profitability under the condition of matching profits and valuations are the key allocation directions of this year's institutions, such as nonferrous metals and chemical products, and Companies damaged by the epidemic situation will also have an obvious recovery process after the epidemic situation is under control. "

It is worth mentioning that the rising trend of Pro cyclical plates such as chemical industry and nonferrous metals has shown signs since the beginning of 2021. Since 2021, Shenwan chemical industry index has increased by 18.73%, and non-ferrous metal index has increased by 19.94%. Among them, Zhongtai Chemical Co., Ltd., the leader, increased by 83.09% in 30 trading days of the year.

The 21st century economic report reporter consulted the research data of the organization and found that since 2021, China Thailand chemical has obtained 10 times of research, and the total number of research in this year is second only to BYD and Han's laser.

According to the public information, Sinochem has three business sectors: chlor alkali chemical industry, textile industry and supply chain trade. Its main business is the production and sales of chlor alkali chemical products such as PVC resin, ion-exchange membrane caustic soda, viscose fiber and viscose yarn, etc., and has a complete coal thermoelectric chlor alkali chemical industry -Viscose fiber viscose yarn upstream and downstream integration of circular economy industry chain.

Earlier, Zhongtai chemical predicted that the net profit of parent company in 2020 would be 100-150 million yuan, corresponding to 546-596 million yuan in 2020q4, turning losses into profits significantly year-on-year and month on month.

Huaxi Securities pointed out that at present, the inventory of PVC, caustic soda, viscose staple fiber and other major products (Zhongtai chemical) is at a historical low level, and the future price is expected to continue to rise and maintain at a high level, which is conducive to the company's strong profitability.

The soaring share price of Sinochem is only one part of the change of investment style in the current market.

"In fact, from the perspective of long-term investment, perhaps we can dilute the market style, or consider the current allocation based on fundamentals and valuation." Chunshi capital business partner and head of securities investment department Yang Ruyi pointed out.

In his opinion, under the background of global economic recovery, the opportunities of procyclical plate are highlighted, and the improvement of economic structure is more certain and sustainable than the overall improvement, and the resonance of overseas supply and demand may be conducive to the performance of non-ferrous machinery and chemical industry and other sectors.

Some institutional sources disclosed the trend of position adjustment, "although we are optimistic about new energy and photovoltaic in the long run, in the short term, their valuation needs to be digested for a period of time. After adjustment, we will allocate them back at a certain time point in the middle of the year when the valuation is reasonable."

The reporter of 21st century economic report also learned from several public and private fund managers that at present, some newly added funds will no longer continue to build positions on "high-rise stocks", but choose to invest in small and medium-sized stocks in the direction of matching valuation with performance and more cost-effective.