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Good Rain Knows The Season: Who Can Wake Up The Sluggish "Apple Industry Chain"?

2021/3/12 12:24:00 0

Good Rain Knows SeasonAppleIndustry Chain

After the release of the iPhone in October last year, Apple's industrial chain seems to have entered a period of lack of catalyst.

Even if the fourth quarter of 2020 quarterly report released by Apple recently showed that it broke the $100 billion mark for the first time, Apple's sales in Greater China increased by 57%; the performance express released by several A-share industry chain companies also showed that the profits increased greatly last year.

However, it failed to boost the plate trend.

According to the tracking data of the 21st Century Institute of capital, as early as the middle of January this year, the wind Apple index began to fall, from nearly 12000 points to the lowest 10113 points. Recently, the apple index hovered at 10400 points. The leading companies such as Lixun precision, gol shares and other stocks with a large increase in the early stage also showed a significant correction.

Behind the sluggish stock price is the frequent occurrence of negative Apple industrial chain.

This round of negative public opinion is led by ofight. First, it was knocked out of the supply chain list last year, and then confirmed that it would sell the related business of camera supply to apple to Wentai technology, which may gradually marginalize the status of Apple's industrial chain.

Subsequently, golfer changed its CFO, causing market concerns about its financial data and pointing to its 10 billion inventory problem

Coincidentally, according to Indian media reports, apple is preparing to transfer 10% of its iPhone 12 production from China to India.

The rumors of supply chain transfer risk, huge inventory crisis, and the elimination of well-known target in the industrial chain have added some uncertain factors to the future trend and performance growth of the A-share Apple industrial chain.

The good news is that Apple's spring conference will be held on March 23, according to the latest market news.

According to current information, Apple will update the iPad pro, air pods and Apple TV product lines in March, and bring the long rumored air tags anti loss accessories.

From the past experience, with the upcoming release of Apple's new products, the industrial chain is expected to maintain a high landscape, and relevant listed companies will be boosted.

In the current market, with bad news intertwined, is the performance of Apple industrial chain short-term fluctuation or fundamental turn?

There is a typical scissors gap between performance and stock price

As of March 10, according to wind data, 31 of the 41 A-share Apple industrial chain companies announced their performance express last year.

Among them, the net profit of 21 companies increased, nearly 70% of which were predicted to be increased by more than 10 enterprises.

For example, gol shares is expected to achieve a net profit of about 275.316.57 million yuan-288.122 million yuan in 2021, with an increase of 115.00% - 125.00%; Changying precision will achieve a net profit of about 530 million yuan-650 million yuan, with an increase of 532.28% - 675.44%; the net profit of lens technology will be about 4888.207 million yuan - 5061.0224 million yuan, with an increase of 98% - 105%.

Changying precision said that the product structure adjustment has achieved results, and the wearable products, tablet products, and pen phones have increased greatly, which has a positive impact on the benefits. Combined with the semi annual report of last year, the sharp increase in net profit of Changying precision is closely related to the surge in demand for wearable devices.

Lens technology, Apple's core supplier of glass cover, has steadily increased its supply share in Apple's supply chain. In August last year, the company acquired 100% shares of Kesheng Taizhou and kelitazhou held by Kecheng technology for 9.9 billion yuan, thus cutting into the production business of iPhone metal case. It pointed out in the annual report forecast that the company timely and reliably guaranteed a large number of downstream customers' delivery demand, and expanded the company's market share in the global high-end segment product field.

From the above reasons, the performance growth of these industry chain companies is closely related to the growth of Apple orders.

However, it should be noted that, despite the big increase, the shares of Apple's leading companies have not performed well.

Since January 15, a total of 13 companies have declined by more than 20%, among which lance technology, golfer shares, Changying precision, lichen precision and ofight have dropped by more than 25%. Although there are reasons for the earlier rise and the correction, there may be other factors hidden behind it.

"Flameout" of leading companies

The 21st Century Institute of capital studies shows that the experience of each is not the same.

Take ofiguang, for example, the news that it was removed from the fruit chain has been circulating since last year. For example, in September last year, some media reports said that Apple had removed the list of its supply chain, and said that most of its touch orders had been owned by lens technology. But lance technology and ofight both denied the news. By January 2021, the news of the sale of the South China factory (Guangzhou) by ofI light has spread widely. It is reported that the target belongs to the CCM business unit of ofI optical, which is an integral part of Apple's supply chain.

After that, the company confirmed that it plans to sell four subsidiaries. In the end, Wentai technology, a leading mobile ODM company, said it would acquire the business related to camera supply to apple from ofI light.

The status of the apple industry chain is in danger, which is a disaster for the company which has grown up relying on the fruit chain halo.

Different from o'feiguang, the crisis of gol shares, ostensibly caused by the resignation of the chief financial officer, is actually the external concern about its 10 billion inventory.

According to the data, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, the stock of goer shares will reach 12.2 billion yuan.

According to the survey summary circulated in the market before, a part of TWS capacity is idle, especially for ordinary products, and the capacity utilization rate is about 80%. This is the problem of the whole industry, not the problem of the ups and downs between goer and its competitors and the order being robbed. "

Some idle capacity in TWS seems to be an industry problem. In the third quarter of 2020, the inventory of another leading leader, Lucent precision, also had 16.99 billion yuan.

The market generally believes that TWS earphone market is still in the process of rapid growth, but due to the continuous improvement of the base, the decline of growth rate is a normal phenomenon. The air pods 3 is delayed for about one quarter, which has a certain impact on the growth rate in the first half of the year, but the absolute volume is still increasing.

There is also a negative news is the long-standing rumors of apple "cutting the list.".

The conference call previously held by lens technology denied this, and said that the fluctuation in the first and second half of the industrial chain was relatively large, but now it has leveled off, and the chances of short positions may be around the first quarter, so there will be some rumors at this time point, hoping to get lower chips, but it will not affect the long-term trend of the industry.

The above negative events have affected the overall trend of Apple industrial chain.

First of all, we can see from the removal of ofight that Apple allows suppliers to check and balance each other, and transfer the premium ability of technology advantaged parties to prevent the risk of over concentration of supply chain.

In fact, judging from the changes of suppliers in Taiwan and Mainland China in recent years, although Chinese manufacturers have gradually entered Apple's supply chain in recent years, it is difficult to catch up with Taiwan manufacturers in terms of the number of supply chains or the importance of supply components. If mainland companies want to occupy a stable position in the fruit chain, they still need continuous technological breakthroughs.

Secondly, affected by the rumor that the growth of air Pods' shipment volume is slowing down, aiot T innovative categories such as AR / VR have not yet been shipped in large scale, and the market has a heavy wait-and-see mood.

The main reason is that the smartphone market has entered the "empty window period" at the end of the year. Although the annual report performance has increased greatly, it is basically within the market expectation and lacks of significant catalyst.

Can new product launch ignite emotions?

According to Jon Prosser, Apple will hold a new product launch on March 23.

This statement has not been "officially certified", but it is in line with the overall market expectations.

According to the current information, Apple will update the product lines of iPad pro, air pods and Apple TV, and bring the long rumored air tags anti loss accessories.

But it is understood that there is no new iPhone this time.

For many users, they are still more concerned about the appearance and hardware configuration parameters of the iPhone 13 series of new iPhone to be launched by apple this year, but generally speaking, the new iPhone will not be officially launched until September.

So, is there anything to look forward to in this new product?

The arrival of the air pods 3 is almost certain. After all, the air pods 2 is a product of two years ago.

According to the domestic media, I love audio network has released a set of appearance drawings of Apple's new air pods earphones. Apple's air pods 3 will adopt a design similar to the air pods pro. The length of the earphone handle is slightly longer than that of the air pods pro, which supports pressure sensitive touch control.

Compared with the previous two generations, the airpods3 has been changed to in ear design, so that even if it does not support active noise reduction, it can effectively isolate external noise through silicone earplugs and improve the user's experience.

It's almost unwritten practice to update the iPad product line every March.

According to the reports from various media this year, it is basically certain that the new ipad Mini and new iPad Pro will become the main characters of this conference.

According to the disclosure, the new ipad Mini will adopt a full screen design with four equal width. The design language of the whole device is consistent with that of the iPad pro and iPad air 4, and the border becomes more straight. The top of the ipad Mini adopts the design of two in one touch ID fingerprint power button, which greatly increases the proportion of front screen. The new iPad Pro will be equipped with apple a14x processor, built-in Qualcomm snapdragon x55 baseband, and support dual-mode 5g network.

Apple will launch a large number of new products with mini LED screens in 2021, including the new iPad pro, according to a report by guomingji, an analyst at Tianfeng international.

Compared with the traditional LCD screen, the mini LED screen has more intensive backlight, which can provide darker black, higher brightness, richer colors and greater contrast, which makes it look better.

In other words, the first thing to watch is the arrival of the air pods 3, because Apple's air pods series has swept the global market since its first generation.

However, there are many competitors in the TWS market at present. If it is not particularly cost-effective, the air pods 3 is likely to lose its dominant position. Therefore, whether the air pods 3 can become a blockbuster or not depends on whether the air pods 3 price is user-friendly.

Another concern is the pick-up in the mini led supply chain brought about by the new iPad pro.

However, according to Taiwan supply chain news, affected by the epidemic, the new iPad Pro related parts are in short supply.

Among them, the most important Mini LED screen has a yield problem due to the production process related to the display module materials, and the display panel shipment may be reduced by 50% in the fourth quarter, leaving only 300000-400000 pieces. The new iPad Pro is likely to fall short of demand.

Risk warning: Apple's expected capacity transfer

There have been frequent reports that Apple plans to transfer 7% - 10% of its capacity from mainland China to India, and that Hon Hai's plant in Tamil Nadu will be responsible for the production of the iPhone 12, as part of Apple's move from mainland China to India.

China is one of the world's largest smartphone markets, contributing a lot of revenue to apple every year. In fact, apple not only depends on the Chinese market, but also relies on made in China. Apple CEO cook has repeatedly said that apple can not do without China's supply chain.

But in recent years, the news that Apple will transfer its production line from China to Vietnam, India and other places is frequent. By 2020, Apple's production line in India will have made the Apple iPhone 11.

Why should Apple shift its capacity from China?

From an objective perspective, on the one hand, China's labor costs are rising rapidly, while India still has a large number of cheap labor. Compared with China, apple can obviously obtain higher profits by transferring its production line to India. On the other hand, the Indian market is an emerging market with great potential, but the price of Apple's iPhone is relatively high, which makes most Indian people unable to bear it. To change that, Apple moved its production line to India to avoid India's 20% import tariff on smartphones, thereby reducing the local price of iPhones.

In addition to these market factors, from the perspective of supply chain diversification, Apple may also want to get rid of its dependence on China's manufacturing industry and reduce the impact of the international situation on production.

This also means that if the industrial chain transfer is finally implemented, the transferred capacity mainly involves the production of Apple mobile phones, and the most direct impact will be the domestic supply chain target of iPhone products.

According to the 21st Century Capital Research Institute, the domestic suppliers involved in the four models of iPhone 12 series (iphone12 / 12max, 12pro / 12pro max) are: LANs technology, BYD electronics, Pengding holding, Dongshan precision, Lingyi intelligent manufacturing, industrial Fulian and Ruisheng technology.

It should be noted that the transfer of domestic apple production capacity to India will take time, and the transfer of production capacity will not affect the orders of domestic equipment enterprises for the time being. But the future is still a problem.

Looking for opportunity logic

First, there are potential opportunities for spring product launches.

If the price of air pods 3 is user-friendly and drives sales, relevant industry chain targets will benefit.

Dismantle the air pods industrial chain, including NAND Flash supplier has Zhaoyi innovation, FPC supplier has Pengding holding company, sensor supplier has golfer and Gongda electroacoustic, speaker supplier has golfer stock, battery supplier has xinwanda, antenna, VCSEL, IC parts supplier has Lingyi Zhizao and yingyida, OEM / EMS OEM is Lixun precision, charging control and circuit protection involve weil.

Apple's first mini LED backlight product, 12.9-inch iPad pro, is expected to appear in this spring. The next 14 inch and 16 inch MacBook Pro with mini LED backlight architecture is expected to appear in the second half of the year. The supply chain is expected to start at the end of the second quarter. We should pay attention to the heat recovery of the mini led supply chain driven by it.

According to the 21st Century Capital Research Institute, the related suppliers of Min I led include: Sanan optoelectronics, Guoxing optoelectronics, Riad, Zhouming technology, TCL technology, Boea, etc.

At the same time, the iPhone 12 is still expected to revive the iPhone boom as the 5g wave of phone changes continues.

According to CSCI, the share of iPhones will further increase in 2021, with annual shipments expected to reach 220-230 million, up about 15% year-on-year. Due to the low base in the first half of 2020, Apple will still usher in a better growth trend in the next quarter.

In the long run, epidemic situation and geopolitical conflict are the two major variables at present, and control the strategy of apple supply chain.

In recent years, the news of apple industry chain moving to India, Vietnam and other places is frequent. During the outbreak, Apple's production around the world was severely affected. Apple not only delayed the release of the iPhone 12 by one month, but also was forced to launch it in two batches. Under the catalysis of the epidemic situation, Apple seems to be more determined to avoid risks.

 

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