Carbon Emission Quota Marketization: Cement Industry Is Expected To Give Priority To National Carbon Trading

At present, the cement clinker price has gradually recovered to the level before the Spring Festival.

According to the research report data of Huaxi Securities, the current clinker is pushed up again, and the cement under carbon neutral is expected to increase the valuation. The price of clinker along the Yangtze River Delta was increased three times on February 19, February 24 and March 11, with the range of 20-30 yuan / ton per round, and the shipping price was increased to 400-410 yuan / ton. This means that the cement price and profit are expected to rise once the weather clears up in the later period and the cement delivery rapidly recovers (about 50% - 60% at present).

Since 2013, carbon emission trading pilot projects have been launched in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen. The cumulative quota trading volume is 406 million tons, the transaction volume is 9.28 billion yuan, and the average carbon equivalent price is 23 yuan / ton.

"The most important thing is that the carbon emission of cement ranks at the top of several industries, accounting for about 13%. In the process of cement manufacturing, limestone is required to be burned. A lot of carbon dioxide emissions will be generated in this process. In addition, coal combustion will lead to large overall emission. In addition, the cement industry is relatively mature in several pilot areas at present, and the carbon trading situation is relatively good. " On March 16, Zheng Jianhui, chief researcher of China cement network and China Cement Research Institute, explained in an interview with the reporter of 21st century economic report.

According to the data previously disclosed by fan Yongbin, Deputy Secretary General of China Cement Association, at present, China's clinker carbon emission coefficient (based on the output of cement clinker) is about 0.86. After conversion, the carbon emission per ton of cement in China is about 597 kg. It is predicted that the annual carbon emission of the industry will be 1.376 billion tons, accounting for about 13.5% of the total carbon emission in China. Based on this, the cement industry as a high energy consumption industry, energy conservation and emission reduction of the industry is of great significance for China's overall realization of the "carbon neutral" vision.

From free to paid?

According to the previous pilot, the principle of free quota distribution is mainly adopted. Referring to the implementation plan of carbon emission quota allocation in 2020 in Guangdong Province, the proportion of free quota for cement enterprises is 97%. For the emission control enterprises that allocate quotas according to the baseline method and historical intensity reduction method, the production capacity is 1.3 times of the statistical capacity of the association, and the production days are calculated as 300 days.

However, some people in the industry pointed out that with the implementation of the "carbon emission trading management measures (for Trial Implementation)", the carbon emission quota will gradually transition from free distribution to paid distribution, and can be traded through open bidding, agreement and other means.

According to the measures for the management of carbon emissions trading, the Ministry of ecological environment, in accordance with the relevant national regulations, organized the establishment of national carbon emission registration and trading institutions, and organized the construction of national carbon emission registration system and national carbon emission trading system. The national carbon emission trading agency is responsible for organizing and carrying out centralized and unified carbon emission trading. The allocation of carbon emission quota is mainly free of charge, which can be introduced timely according to the relevant national requirements.

"In fact, it was paid before, but because the allocation was made according to the actual production capacity or output of the enterprise, the quota of each province is relatively sufficient, so the enterprises are basically not in short supply. In the future, with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, especially the cement industry in the "14th five year plan" has a higher rate than many other industries. If we want to achieve the carbon peak, it will also lead to increased costs. " Zheng Jianhui analyzed to the 21st century economic reporter that the reduction of quotas by the state is mainly the pressure of production for enterprises. "In the past, the reduction of clinker output was achieved through the policies of temporary shutdown and staggered peak production. But carbon trading is a market-oriented policy, not an administrative policy. For enterprises, if technological transformation leads to less carbon emissions, the excess quota allocated by the state can be used for trading. And some enterprises have to buy in the market if their own carbon quota is not enough. "

According to relevant data, the total quota of Guangdong Province in 2020 is 465 million tons. Based on the highest 5% paid quota of electric power enterprises, the largest carbon trading market is 23 million tons. According to the equivalent of 23 yuan / ton, the market space is 529 million yuan (mainly power enterprises), which has little impact on cement enterprises.

Taking Tabai group, a listed company, as an example, the company does not recognize assets, government subsidies and accounting for the free carbon emission quota granted by the provincial development and Reform Commission in the accounting statements. The carbon emission quota obtained with compensation is classified according to the purpose of holding. For the purpose of self use, the company shall be accounted as intangible assets; for the purpose of sale, the company shall be accounted as inventory. The carbon emission quota obtained with compensation shall be measured according to the initial cost of acquisition, and the subsequent measurement shall be conducted according to the applicable criteria for holding purpose. Among them, the carbon emission right purchased in 2019 is about 4 million yuan (compared with the net profit of 1.723 billion yuan), mainly for the self-use of grinding station and the company has a Jinta line which has been built for a long time and has a high energy consumption, but on the whole, it has little impact on the overall cost of cement enterprises.

Rising costs

With the approaching of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the cost burden of small and medium-sized enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards will increase sharply.

In Zheng Jianhui's view, after the implementation of the new deal, the carbon emissions of cement enterprises may be further reduced, thus further increasing the production costs of enterprises. "For example, according to the amount of electricity you supply or the actual output, you can allocate carbon emissions. After the reduction of quotas, many enterprises in the whole industry may be out of use. If the quotas are not enough but still need to continue production, the purchase of quotas will lead to an increase in production costs. On the other hand, to reduce carbon, enterprises must invest a lot of technological transformation, such as carbon capture technology, development of new products, purchase of new equipment, fuel replacement, etc., which will increase the cost of enterprises

Considering that China will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060, the technical innovation of cement industry in the future is also on the way. According to the current treatment technology, in order to achieve complete carbon neutralization, the overall production cost will increase by several hundred yuan / ton, of course, this is the goal to be achieved in 40 years, but the overall direction remains unchanged. Through environmental protection means, the industry gap will be widened, and the backward technology enterprises will be gradually eliminated from the market, which is conducive to the industry market to continue to concentrate on the leader.

As for how to deal with the current cement enterprises, Zheng Jianhui said: "at present, it is more difficult that there is no mature technology coming out. Although there are some small-scale attempts in the industry, there is no common technology that can be promoted. Of course, there is still a long way to go before 2060, and there will certainly be new technologies in the future to promote the goal of carbon neutrality. "

Zhou CE, an analyst of Caixin securities, gave a possible technical path: "cement enterprises can upgrade their production line technology by relying on the second generation cement technical standards, and reduce production energy consumption by using advanced rotary kiln, calciner, roller mill system, etc. according to the guidelines of the second generation of new dry process cement technology and equipment research and development standard, the new clinker cement can reduce the carbon dioxide emission by 2 More than 5 percent. "

According to the notice of six new pattern work plans such as "promoting cement technology innovation with the goal of" second generation technology "issued by China Cement Association, by 2025, the production line of cement industry will be comprehensively upgraded and transformed, and backward production capacity will be eliminated. Under the policy promotion, the cement industry technical transformation demand will release.