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Hard Technology'S "High Light" Quarterly Report: Panel Profit Growth Is The Highest, Semiconductor Ushers In Demand Cycle

2021/5/7 11:35:00 0

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In the first quarter of 2021, the technology industry will usher in a time of high performance.

Wind data shows that in the A-share market, electronic components and equipment, semiconductors, communication equipment and other hard technology fields have achieved overall growth. Among them, the total revenue of 94 semiconductor core enterprises in the first quarter of this year was 121.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.618 billion yuan, up 99.18% year on year. The total revenue of 285 enterprises related to electronic components and equipment in the first quarter was 612.88 billion yuan, an increase of 40.69% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.385 billion yuan, up 161.66% year on year.

Since last year, the ever-changing epidemic situation and the reshaping of the global science and technology industry chain have highlighted the importance of scientific and technological innovation. With the demand growth after the relief of the epidemic situation, the prosperity of the science and technology industry in the first quarter of this year is still continuing.

At the same time, the state has intensively introduced new policies on scientific and technological innovation to support the development of core technologies“ It is proposed in the 14th five year plan to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters and promote the innovation and development of integrated circuits and other industries; Prior to that, the official website of the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on supporting the development of integrated circuit industry and software industry on import tax policy; On May 4, in order to vigorously promote the development of 5g applications, the Ministry of industry and information technology drafted and compiled the "5g application" action plan (2021-2023), with the goal that by 2023, the penetration rate of 5g individual users will exceed 40%, and the number of users will exceed 560 million. With the policy support, the science and technology industry will open up a new situation.

The shortage of upstream chips is affecting the growth of panel market. Visual China

Price rise continues, "orders have been scheduled to October"

According to the estimation of Everbright Securities on key companies, the revenue of 365 companies in the electronic industry in 2021q1 (A-share) was 834.464 billion yuan, an increase of 41.9% year-on-year; The net profit of the whole industry was 47.596 billion yuan, up 176.9% year on year. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of the eight industries including semiconductor, consumer electronics, display devices, components, PCB, security, led, and automotive electronics were all significantly increased.

On the one hand, the growth rate is affected by the low base in the same period last year. With the alleviation of the epidemic situation in 2021, the market will gradually recover and the demand will increase; On the other hand, due to the shortage of upstream components, the supply still exceeds demand in the first quarter, and the price rise is still continuing.

This is also reflected in all aspects of the industrial chain. A foreign trade employee of mechanical and electrical equipment told the 21st century economic report that the performance in the first quarter of this year has improved significantly, and the orders have been arranged to October this year, showing the situation of short supply. At the same time, due to the price rise of raw materials by 30% - 40%, the company's equipment has also increased by about 10%.

Specifically speaking, the top ten sub industries in terms of net profit growth in this quarter were: display panel (+ 16181.6%), pcb-pcb equipment (+ 475.5%), semiconductor equipment (+ 429.5%), consumer electronics battery (+ 323.4%), consumer electronics acoustics (+ 242.5%), semiconductor MEMS (+ 206.2%), consumer electronics RF (+ 203.0%) Semiconductor sealed test (+ 173.5%), display device display module (+ 172.7%), PCB copper clad laminate (+ 148.4%). The top 10 companies with net profit are BOE a, industrial Fulian, TCL technology, Hikvision, Lixun precision, Lansi technology, rainbow Co., Ltd., Weill Co., Ltd., gol Co., Ltd., and voice holding.

Four of the top ten net profit companies are directly related to the panel industry. From the perspective of leading companies, the data are very bright. In the first quarter, BOE's net profit to the parent company was 5.182 billion yuan, an increase of 814.46% over the same period of last year; TCL technology's net profit to its parent company in the first quarter was 2.4 billion yuan, up 489% year on year. According to the group intelligence consulting data, BOE delivered about 13 million tablets in the first quarter, up 48.2% year-on-year, and the market share reached 33%; TCL China Star shipped about 2.35 million pieces, more than doubled year-on-year, with a market share of 6%.

However, it is worth noting that the shortage of upstream chips is affecting the growth of the panel market. Li Yayu, research director of group intelligence consulting PC business unit, told the 21st century economic report that the global market demand for display panel was still strong in the first quarter, but limited by the tight supply of DDIC, the increase of more than 40 million pieces in a single quarter failed to continue after the epidemic, which led to the rapid rise of panel prices and further amplified the market risk in the second half of the epidemic.

She also said that in the second quarter, display panel manufacturers will still be affected by the shortage of IC, but with the increase of IC suppliers, expansion of production and the adjustment of supply among applications, the supply is expected to ease slightly. In the second quarter, the shipment of display panel only recovered slightly on a month on month basis, and will decline for the first time in five quarters. According to sigmaitell, the number of display panels shipped in the second quarter was about 41 million, up 4.6% month on month and down 3.4% year-on-year.

In the first quarter of 2021, the revenue of the whole industry was 181.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.5%; The net profit of the whole industry was 6.4 billion yuan, up 114.3% year on year. After excluding the influential ones (Unicom and ZTE), the revenue of the whole industry was 72.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29%; The net profit of the whole industry was 2.54 billion yuan, up 210.6% year on year. This is mainly because the important links of the communication industry chain are concentrated in Wuhan, and 2020q1 is greatly affected by the epidemic situation, and the base number is low.

If we take 2019q1 as the base, the whole industry's revenue will increase by 9.8%, and the net profit will increase by 2.4%; If the impact of ZTE's investment income is excluded, the growth rate of net profit is negative; After excluding the influential ones (Unicom and ZTE), the growth rate of industry income was 4.3%, and the growth rate of net profit was - 31.9%. The industrial chain has shown signs of profit decline. On the one hand, operators' 5g large-scale centralized purchase has not been started in 2021; on the other hand, the low growth rate of capital expenditure of the three operators in 2021 also affects the industry prosperity level.

Capacity shortage, wafer plant is busy expanding production

As a national heavyweight, the semiconductor industry has received unprecedented attention. Although there is still a gap between the domestic semiconductor industry and the international large factories, there are market opportunities under the background of global industrial chain reconstruction and changing trade environment. According to the latest data of the semiconductor industry association (SIA), the global sales of semiconductor products reached 123.1 billion US dollars in the first quarter of this year, up 17.8% year-on-year and 3.6% month on month. Under the spread of global core shortage, domestic wafer factories and equipment factories ushered in a surge in production, and the performance of many semiconductor enterprises soared in the first quarter.

The overall revenue of key semiconductor companies in 2021q1 was 90.199 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.9%; The overall net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.723 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 113.8%. In the subdivision of the industrial chain, the data of equipment is the most eye-catching, with the highest growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company, reaching 429.5%, and the income increased by 45.0% year on year. In addition, the revenue in the design field increased by 46.4% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 113.2%; The sealing and testing revenue increased by 33.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 173.5%.

In the view of Cinda electronic competition team, the most direct beneficiaries are the wafer plants and IDM under the situation of shortage and price rise. "With high demand, the orders of the wafer factories are not in danger. At the same time, more performance flexibility can be obtained through price increase and high capacity utilization. IDM can rely on its own capacity advantages to ensure the supply of downstream customers, so as to seize the market. In addition, compared with digital and analog IC, power semiconductor is more standard and more replaceable. If overseas manufacturers are out of stock, they can quickly form domestic substitutes. " Fang Jing said.

For example, power IDM manufacturer Shilan micro achieved a net profit of 174 million yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 7726.86%; The micro net profit of China Resources was 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 251.8%. Both SMIC and Huahong semiconductor are expanding their production capacity. SMIC is expected to spend 28.09 billion yuan on capital expenditure in 2021. The latest investment project is to expand the 12 inch wafer plant in Shenzhen, with an investment of 2.35 billion US dollars, focusing on the production of 28nm and above process chips. It is expected to produce 40000 pieces of 12 inch wafers a month and start production in 2022.

Semiconductor equipment meets growth

Meanwhile, the expansion of wafer foundry also led to the growth of semiconductor equipment performance, and the performance of international leading ASML rose sharply in the first quarter. In China, the first quarter net profit of the company was 138 million yuan, up 425.4% year on year; The net profit of North Huachuang in the first quarter was 73 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175.3%; The net profit of precision measurement electronics was 65 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 934.5%; The net profit of ASM Pacific in Hong Kong stock market was 522 million yuan, up 2110.2% year on year.

Semi, an industry association, recently released a report saying that global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment soared by 19% from $59.8 billion in 2019 to $71.2 billion in 2020, a record high.

In addition, Xinda electronics also pointed out that the production capacity shortage in the packaging and testing industry is extremely serious. According to the research on the industry chain, the current price increase of mainstream packaging and testing manufacturers is about 20%, and the price rise cycle superimposes high capacity utilization rate, which can significantly promote the company's performance. For example, Tongfu micro electric recently released the first quarter report, and it is estimated that the net profit of Q1 will be 140 million to 160 million yuan in 2021, which will turn the deficit sharply year on year. In the first quarter, the company achieved a net profit of 386 million yuan, up 188.68% year on year.

In the absence of core environment, small design companies are more difficult to survive, and leading enterprises can often grasp more upstream resources. But even the leading enterprises, there is also a decline in performance. Among the key domestic semiconductor design enterprises, Weill's first quarter net profit was 1.041 billion yuan, up 133.8% year on year; The micro net profit of Zhuosheng was 492 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.3%; The net profit of Zhaoyi innovation was 301 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.4%. However, the net profit of LanChi Technology Co., Ltd. decreased by 49%, the net profit of srip by 27.7% and huiding technology by 23.5%, which are closely related to the company's technology, product structure and strategy.

At present, the semiconductor boom is still continuing, and the structural shortage will continue. Cinda electronics believes that the semiconductor market will usher in a 5-10-year demand cycle in the face of a new round of demand explosion such as 5g, aiot and automotive electronics.

 

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