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The "Price Signal" Behind The Regulation Of The Property Market: The Rise Of Second-Hand House Price In 70 Cities Is Narrowed, And The First-Hand House Price Is Inverted

2021/6/18 12:36:00 0

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In recent months, the continuous regulation and control of the real estate market is finally reflected in the change of price signal.

On June 17, the National Bureau of statistics released the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in May. Similar to the past few months, the price trend of new and second-hand housing continues to diverge. Among them, the price of new houses continued to rise, and the price of new houses in first tier cities increased by 0.7% month on month, and continued to lead the rise. 2、 New house prices in third tier cities rose by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

However, the price of second-hand houses with wind vane significance has narrowed. In May, the prices of second-hand houses in the first, second and third tier cities rose by 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2% month on month, respectively, down 0.2%, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points compared with April.

This deviation is related to the price limit policy in the field of new housing for a long time. However, it is not difficult to see from the price changes of second-hand housing that the trend of the real estate market is tending to be stable under the continuous regulatory policies.

In the interpretation, Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, used the term "rising to stabilize" to describe the change of house prices in May. Private institutions believe that in the next few months, the steady trend of second-hand housing prices is expected to continue, and cities with too fast rising new house prices may continue to issue regulatory policies.

Reappearance of "ten thousand people's lottery" in new houses in many places

Since the fourth quarter of last year, house prices in first tier cities have led the rise in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and this situation continues to this day. By may, the price of new houses in first tier cities had risen by 0.7%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in April. In contrast, house prices in the second and third tier cities were flat.

In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen's new housing prices have increased. Guangzhou ranks second in 70 large and medium-sized cities with a 1.5% increase, becoming the main driver of housing prices in first tier cities.

Chongqing was the city with the biggest increase in new house prices last month, reaching 1.9%, which was also the leading city for two consecutive months. Analysts believe that Chongqing's housing price base is not high, coupled with more recent stimulus factors, leading to a significant rise in housing prices.

Among them, the high premium in land transaction is one of the main stimulating factors.

Chongqing started the first round of centralized land supply this year on April 28. As most of the plots did not set a ceiling price, the premium rate of the first plot launched on that day reached 54.4%. Since then, the premium rate of the four cases has exceeded 40%. The premium rate of a commercial and residential plot in Xiyong group of Shapingba District is as high as 129.98%.

Finally, among the 21 cities that have completed the first round of centralized land supply, Chongqing takes the lead with a premium rate of 38.82%. This also forms certain stimulation to Chongqing's house price.

In fact, in the process of rising prices of new houses in some cities, the stimulating effect of land price can not be ignored. The first round of centralized land supply in hot cities is mostly in April and may, and its impact is also reflected in the past two months. Although most cities have set a ceiling price, the floor prices of some high-quality plots are still not low“ In Xiamen, after the completion of the first round of centralized land supply, there will soon be a project to raise prices. " A real estate enterprise in East China told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

In contrast, it is a common phenomenon that the rise of second-hand house prices has narrowed. Even in Chongqing, where new house prices have soared, the rise in second-hand housing prices has fallen to 1.0% from 1.3% in April.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the price limit policy has led to the inverted primary and secondary housing prices, which has prompted more demand to choose the new housing market, further aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand, and causing the price rise of new houses to be significantly better than that of second-hand houses. Recently, Xi'an and other places appear new housing project "lottery", which is one of the embodiment.

For the second-hand housing prices fall, Xu Xiaole called "high callback.". In the past few months, the rise of second-hand housing prices has been rising due to the favorable expectations brought by the booming market. In May, under the pressure of price, the heat finally dropped.

To some extent, this is also the result of policy adjustments, he said. For example, after adjusting the guiding price of second-hand housing, Shenzhen's property market fell into a downturn. Shenzhen's second-hand house price also dropped by 0.1% in May, becoming the only first tier city to decline.

Under the continuous regulation and control policy, the trend of the real estate market is tending to be stable. Photo by Zheng dikun

Second hand house to see the decline in the heat

Since this year, real estate transactions continue to be hot. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first five months of this year, the national commercial housing sales area was 663.83 million square meters, an average increase of 9.3% over the same period of last two years; The sales volume of commercial housing exceeded 7 trillion yuan, with an average increase of 16.7% in two years.

Among them, the sales area and sales volume have set a new record in the same period of history. Zhongyuan Real Estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei believes that the traditional property market "small Yangchun" is still continuing.

Affected by this, real estate development investment, completion, real estate enterprises in place funds and other indicators have good performance. The above-mentioned real estate enterprise personage said that if the centralized land supply policy did not require a large amount of funds, the cash flow level of many real estate enterprises would be better than last year.

In the hot "small spring" of the property market, it is very difficult to maintain the "rising and stabilizing" of the housing price level. Most respondents pointed out that behind this is the result of frequent introduction of property market regulation policies.

Statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate show that in the first five months of this year, the frequency of regulatory policies issued by regulatory departments at all levels reached 234 times, showing a "blowout". Most of them are "patching up", and the contents are mainly about interviews with the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, rectification of intermediary agencies, supervision of business loans, and adjustment of land supply policies.

The impact of these policies on market expectations can not be ignored, and concentrated on the change of second-hand housing prices.

The supply of second-hand housing is an independent and decentralized owner, so the supply and pricing are more flexible and the response is more timely. Therefore, compared with the new house, the second-hand house price is considered to be more able to reflect the real changes in the market, and the second-hand house price is often regarded as the wind vane of the market.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, prices of second-hand houses in 17 cities fell in May, the highest number since the beginning of this year. Besides Shenzhen, it is mainly the second and third tier cities in the central and western regions. And the price rise of many hot spots in the first and second tier cities is also narrowing.

According to the statistics of several large brokerage agencies, since May, the popularity of second-hand housing in hot cities has declined, and the price quoted by owners is obviously loose. Compared with the previous period, the premium space of second-hand housing is also increasing.

Xu Xiaole pointed out that under the continuous influence of the regulatory policies, the owners of second-hand houses are expected to have a steady decline as a whole, and the second-hand house prices are expected to stabilize in the later stage.

Zhang Dawei, on the other hand, believes that since the new house reflects the market price under the price limit, on the whole, the price of the new house still has the driving force to rise, but under the control of the policy, it will not rise sharply. On the contrary, some cities where the prices of new houses have risen too fast may soon be hit by policies.

 

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