Guangzhou Held A "Second-Hand House Reference Price" Big Move, Many Second-Hand Housing To Bubble

      After Shenzhen, Dongguan, Chengdu and other cities, Guangzhou has finally introduced a second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism. On the evening of August 31, 2021, Guangzhou Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on establishing a mechanism for issuing reference prices of second-hand housing transactions (hereinafter referred to as the notice).

      According to the notice, for the hot areas with active transactions, the Guangzhou Housing Policy Research Center, based on the transaction price of second-hand housing online in the past year, takes into account the evaluation price and the transaction price of the surrounding first-hand real estate to form a reference price for second-hand housing transactions; The real estate intermediary and network information release platform shall not publish the second-hand houses with unreasonably high prices, and take the reference price as the basis for business development.

Since Shenzhen launched the second-hand housing reference price mechanism in February this year, many cities across the country have adopted this mechanism to control the scope of second-hand housing. These cities in the role of a second-hand linkage control, once a short-term increase in the second-hand housing transactions gradually return to rational, bubble trend is also gradually ended.

Regulation "expected"

Guangzhou issued the second-hand housing reference price release mechanism is expected regulation.

In April 2021, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, interviewed the government leaders of five cities, including Guangzhou, and asked them to fully understand the importance of the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, firmly grasp the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and do not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, and earnestly shoulder the main responsibility of the city, so as to ensure the realization of stable land price, stable house price, stable housing price, and high-quality housing price Keep the expected target steady.

After being interviewed, Guangzhou has been upgrading and patching the real estate regulation.

From the data point of view, it is necessary for Guangzhou to bring the second-hand housing into the control range. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first seven months of this year, among the four first tier cities, Guangzhou had the highest year-on-year increase in both new and second-hand housing, with new housing reaching 10.9% and second-hand housing 12.2%. According to the monitoring data of Guangzhou Zhongyuan research and development department, in the first half of 2021, 75212 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Guangzhou, an increase of 57.2% compared with the same period, and the turnover volume was the highest in recent four years.

Xiao Wenxiao, chief regional analyst of Kerry Guangfo, told the 21st century economic report, "judging from the house price index of 70 cities released by the Bureau of statistics, the year-on-year increase of new and second-hand houses in Guangzhou is higher, which is also an important reason why Guangzhou has frequently tightened regulation and control since this year, It is not surprising that the management of price expectation in the second-hand housing market has been put on the agenda. "

At the same time of the notice, Guangzhou Housing Research Center immediately released the reference price list of second-hand housing transactions in the first batch of hot areas.

Comparing the official reference price and the latest transaction price of 96 residential districts involved in the 21st century economic report, the reference price of most residential areas is far lower than the transaction price. The most obvious is that the reference price of most residential areas in Tianhe CBD Zhujiang New Town is less than 100000 / m2, while the actual transaction price and listing price are at least 140000 / m2.

For example, at present, the average reference price of chain stores is 175000 yuan / square meter, while the official reference price is only 93000 yuan / square meter.

Huang Tao, general manager of Guangzhou Zhongyuan project, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter, "the first batch only lists 96 residential communities, and there will be a second batch and a third batch of residential areas under price control in the future. As the first batch is a hot trading area, which plays a warning role, there will be a large price difference between the reference price and the transaction price. It is expected that such a large price difference will not occur in the second batch and the third batch. "

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, said that the significance of the second-hand housing guidance price lies in "guiding the listing price of owners and intermediaries, cutting off the listing price, promoting the buyer's market expectation, and driving the cycle of transaction price rising; In the case of market failure, the government can provide the market with reasonable price signal instead of unreasonable and irrational price signal; Control the price of second-hand house, guide the price of new house, and provide reasonable expectation for the price limit of new house; We should promote the second-hand housing market to deleverage with reference price, and reduce the pulling effect of funds on housing prices

On the future development of Guangzhou's second-hand property market, Xiao Wenxiao said, "in recent months, Guangzhou's second-hand housing market has cooled down, and the turnover has been reduced from more than 10000 units to more than 8000 units. The issuance of this notice is bound to accelerate the adjustment, and it is expected that the turnover will shrink significantly in the short term." Huang Tao pointed out that in the short term, the volume of second-hand housing will drop sharply, which will inevitably lead to the change of transaction price. However, it is expected that the transaction price will drop significantly after three months.

Remarkable achievements in the past

Before Guangzhou established the second-hand housing reference price release mechanism, ten cities across the country have also introduced this mechanism to regulate the second-hand housing. Although at the beginning of its launch, the market has different opinions on its effect, but from the market feedback, the power of this policy can not be underestimated.

The reason why it can work is that this mechanism is not only for reference, but also for intermediaries, banks and other related institutions. The reference price of second-hand housing transaction is one of the bases for them to carry out business. For example, intermediary institutions list second-hand houses according to the reference price, and those higher than the reference price need to withdraw the license plate; Banks also need to take the reference price as the loan evaluation price.

Take Shenzhen, where this mechanism was first introduced, as an example, its current transaction of second-hand housing has fallen into the freezing point. In February this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued a document to establish a mechanism for publishing the transaction reference price of second-hand housing, and released the transaction reference price of second-hand housing in 3595 residential districts in Shenzhen.

According to the statistics of leyoujia Research Center, in July 2021, there were 3313 sets of second-hand housing (including self-service) in Shenzhen. Among them, 2557 second-hand houses were transferred, down 1% month on month and 81% year-on-year. Data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan research center also showed that in the first half of 2021, 28442 second-hand residential units were sold in Shenzhen, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%.

An intermediary in Longgang District of Shenzhen told the 21st century economic report that "the turnover of second-hand houses in Shenzhen fell below 2000 units in August, and the transaction cycle of second-hand houses became longer. In some areas, the owner's price has been lowered, and most of the customers are rushing to pick up the leakage. According to the current market, the buyer has the absolute upper hand. In the future, the second-hand housing market will return to rationality. The horizontal trading period is expected to be as long as two years. The trading volume will not rise too much in the short term, and both the volume and price will fall. "

Shanghai began to implement the second-hand housing price verification policy in July this year, and those that failed to pass the price verification will not be released, and the "three price is low" policy was issued in August.

Kerui data shows that after Shanghai released the second-hand housing price verification policy, the volume began to fall. In July 2021, the transaction area of second-hand housing in Shanghai was 1.967 million square meters, down 17.68% year-on-year and 13.7% month on month. According to the 21st century economic report, since the end of July 2021, many intermediary stores in Shanghai have sold only one or two sets, or even zero.

Xiao Wenxiao analyzed that "due to the great difference between the reference price and the market price, the game between buyers and sellers around the price will eventually evolve into a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, which will greatly dampen the trading volume. Due to the buyer's regulation and control, after a period of horizontal trading, some owners of urgent sales may reduce their price expectations. Therefore, the release of reference price is indeed effective for the change of market expectation. The key point is whether the relevant parties such as intermediaries and banks will strictly implement the management according to the reference price. "

In the case of Guangzhou, banking institutions have responded quickly to this policy. According to Nanfang + news, Guangzhou Branch of Minsheng Bank said that the appraisal of the value of second-hand housing mortgage collateral in Guangzhou has been carried out in accordance with the principle of "the lower of the evaluation price and the online transaction price", which is the first commercial bank's housing loan evaluation rules after the introduction of Guangzhou's second-hand housing reference price.

Li Yujia also believes that "the reference price of second-hand housing is not the requirement of short-term regulation, but the necessity of long-term mechanism construction. In April this year, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development (MOHURD) interviewed Guangzhou and clearly mentioned that the second-hand housing transaction management should be strengthened. From the regulation and control of Shenzhen, Shanghai, Chengdu and Xi'an, it can be found that the guiding price mechanism of second-hand housing occurred after the investigation and supervision of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development. Regulatory system and reference price are important long-term mechanism and infrastructure of second-hand housing supervision. "