AB Side Of Bank Listing: Under The Pressure Of Blood Tonifying, IPO Of Small And Medium-Sized Banks Presses The "Acceleration Key", Who Can Be Proud Of The Market Value Under The Over 70% Of "Net Breaking" Rate?

Small and medium-sized banks have become the main force of A-share listed banks.

On September 9, A-share listing of Lanzhou bank was approved by the issuance and Examination Committee of China Securities Regulatory Commission. Bank of Lanzhou is known as the bank with the longest queue time. In June 2016, the first application of Lanzhou bank was accepted. It took more than five years from acceptance to meeting. If you include the whole process after the IPO plan was announced, Lanzhou bank has been pounding A-share listing for more than ten years.

The listing of the banks with the longest queue is finally released, which may convey a positive signal of A-share listing of small and medium-sized banks.

According to the progress of listed banks in the past, if it goes well, Lanzhou bank may become the fifth listed bank this year. The four banks listed this year are Bank of Chongqing (601963. SH), Qilu Bank (601665. SH), Ruifeng Bank (601528. SH) and Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank (601825. SH).

Judging from the progress of 2021, this year is at least a "small bumper year" for the listing of banks.

At the end of 2019, postal savings bank (601658. SH) successfully listed in A-share market, completing the closing work of six major banks in A-share listing. In that year, 8 banks were listed in A-share market, the number was the same as that in 2016, and only one bank was listed in 2020.

"In recent years, both the state level and the regulatory authorities have been encouraging small and medium-sized banks to supplement capital through multiple channels, so as to increase support for the real economy. To supplement capital through listing can, on the one hand, improve the information disclosure and corporate governance of small and medium-sized banks, and on the other hand, establish a long-term mechanism for capital supplement. After listing, they can issue preferred shares and be convertible Debt and rights issues, "one banking analyst told 21st century economics reporter.

According to the statistics on the website of China Securities Regulatory Commission, in addition to Lanzhou bank, there are 12 small and medium-sized banks in the listing queue, of which 8 are in the state of "pre disclosure update"; Four are urban commercial banks and eight are agricultural commercial banks. At the same time, according to incomplete statistics, there are at least 30 banks planning to go public.

For these small and medium-sized banks, listing means the coexistence of joy and pressure, and the a side of listing means obtaining valuable core tier one capital replenishment tools, which is expected to relieve the pressure of "invigorating blood"; On the other hand, due to the continuous downturn of the banking sector, more than 70% of the bank shares are still in the state of breaking the net. It is very difficult for small and medium-sized banks, especially those lack of operating characteristics, to avoid the embarrassment of "breaking the net soon after listing".

Small and medium-sized banks quietly press the "acceleration key"

In 2020, only one A-share bank has been listed successfully, with the number reaching a new low for many years.

At that time, the 21st century economic reporter learned that this was related to the strengthening of the audit of listed banks by the regulatory authorities. As early as 2019, the regulatory authorities carried out on-site verification of some banks, focusing on asset quality and administrative penalties.

"In 2020, the epidemic situation will have a greater impact on the quality of banking assets, especially some small and medium-sized banks. If we do not strengthen the audit, they will be listed with diseases. After listing, the problems will be exposed, which will have a greater negative impact on the market," a person familiar with the situation once said.

However, in 2021, the situation has changed significantly. In the eyes of the banking industry, small and medium-sized banks are facing the pressure of capital supplement and the plight of insufficient capital supplement tools behind the "acceleration key" of small and medium-sized banks.

Some people in the banking industry told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the capital replenishment of small and medium-sized banks has been facing a greater challenge, which has been more severe since the outbreak of new coronapneumonia. On the other hand, some small and medium-sized banks need to supplement capital to develop business to better support the development of the real economy.

Regulatory authorities have long noticed the "capital thirst" of small and medium-sized banks. Commercial banks have more and more space to choose "blood toning" tools including perpetual bonds, secondary capital bonds and fixed increase. However, as one of the best capital supplement channels, banks still attach great importance to A-share IPO. For these small and medium-sized banks which are relatively difficult to supplement capital, successful listing can solve the problem of capital replenishment to a great extent, and at the same time, it has a great effect on corporate governance and brand promotion of small and medium-sized banks.

However, although this year's Bank meeting arrangement is obviously plump than last year, the issue of asset quality is still the top priority of the IEC's attention.

The reporter of 21st century economic report combed the four listed banks this year and found that in the audit process of the national development and Audit Commission, the questions raised by the regulatory authorities will all involve the aspect of asset quality. For example, during the meeting of Chongqing bank, the IEC asked four questions, two of which were related to asset quality, including whether the asset quality classification was accurate, whether the impairment provision was reasonable, and whether the risk management system was sound.

In the transition period of the new asset management regulations and the pressure drop period of shadow banking business, the financing business is also the focus of attention. Three banks were asked relevant questions. For example, Qilu bank's non breakeven financial products held 680 million yuan of default bonds, and there were 9 non-standard investments with redemption risk in the interbank investment. The regulatory authorities did not separate the key risk items and disclosed the reasons and rationality of the basis for withdrawing impairment separately, and whether there was a plan for self purchase statement in accordance with the new requirements of asset management.

At the same time, the regulatory authorities will also put forward the "personalized" problem of related banks. Taking the Bank of Lanzhou, which recently attended the meeting, as an example, the regulatory authorities require that, in combination with the relevant situations of Yunxiang pawn and Weiyuan Minmetals, it is reasonable for the two enterprises mentioned above to receive loans from Lanzhou bank to Jianxin group and its affiliated companies at the original price of 1.078.8 billion yuan after the debt crisis of Jianxin group; Whether there are potential interest arrangements with the above two companies, whether the loan risk is really transferred, whether there is regulation of non-performing loans, etc.

There are more rural banks under Shanghai Agricultural commercial bank, a total of 35. The regulatory authorities require to explain the specific measures and effectiveness to deal with the risks of rural banks, the standards, methods and implementation of provision for loan impairment of rural banks, and whether the transfer out and write off of non-performing loans conform to relevant regulations.

Dozens of listed reserve forces

Up to now, 41 banks have successfully listed in A-share market, but compared with the total number of banks, it is less than 1%.

In recent years, regulatory authorities have been vigorously supporting small and medium-sized banks to supplement capital. At a recent meeting of the financial commission of the State Council Concerning the issue of small and medium-sized banks, it was pointed out that various effective ways should be taken to increase the capital replenishment of small and medium-sized banks, so as to enhance their ability to resist risks and provide credit.

According to the statistics on the website of China Securities Regulatory Commission, besides Lanzhou bank, there are 12 small and medium-sized banks in the listing queue, of which 8 are in the state of "pre disclosure update"; Four are urban commercial banks and eight are agricultural commercial banks.

Judging from the time when the 12 banks first disclosed their prospectuses, Jiangsu Dafeng rural commercial bank was the earliest in November 2017; Xiamen agricultural commercial bank followed closely in December 2017. From the time of the latest update of the prospectus, Bank of Guangzhou recently, in January 2021; Xiamen agricultural commercial bank was first established in May 2018.

The reporter of 21st century economic report noticed that in addition to the above-mentioned 12 banks in line, there are actually more banks planning to go public. According to the websites of securities regulatory bureaus, at least 16 banks are in the process of listing guidance. For example, Bank of Hebei started counseling as early as 2011 and is still in the process of guidance.

The 16 banks are Beijing Agricultural commercial bank, Bank of Tianjin, Bank of Hebei, Heze rural commercial bank, Wuhu Yangtze agricultural commercial bank, Huishang bank, Hangzhou United Agricultural commercial bank, Wenzhou bank, Jiangnan agricultural commercial bank, Rugao agricultural commercial bank, Hankou bank, Hubei bank, Luoyang bank, Urumqi bank, Huihe bank and Gansu bank, including Hankou bank, Huihe bank and Gansu bank The listing plan of Hubei bank has been approved by CBRC.

However, some banks, such as Guangfa bank, Guangzhou agricultural commercial bank, Tianjin Binhai agricultural commercial bank, Shengjing bank, Harbin Bank, Weihai bank and Jinzhou bank, have suspended (or terminated) their A-share listing plans.

In addition, more banks have disclosed their listing plans on their official websites, such as Jingu rural commercial bank, Hengfeng bank, Fudan bank, Chang'an bank, Ganzhou bank, Guilin bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Agricultural commercial bank, Quanzhou bank, Jinan agricultural commercial bank, laishang bank, Guiyang agricultural commercial bank, Pingdingshan bank, Zhejiang Chouzhou bank, Qinghai bank, Jilin bank, leshang bank, etc Lin Shang bank, etc.

How's the share price?

Dozens of banks have joined the reserve force for listing, but how to avoid the embarrassment of "breaking the net" share price after listing may be the problem that these banks should consider in advance.

Over the years, it has become normal for A-share listed banks to "break the net" in a large area.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, as of the closing of September 13, only 9 of the 41 listed banks had not broken the net value. Among them, China Merchants Bank (600036. SH) was the only bank stock with a P / b higher than 2. Bank of Ningbo (002142. Sz) had a P / b close to 2, and the other 7 banks were between 1-1.4; Among them, 6 were below 0.5, including Minsheng Bank (600016. SH), Huaxia Bank (600015. SH), Bank of Communications (601328. SH), Bank of Beijing (601169. SH), Chongqing Agricultural Commercial Bank (601077. SH) and China CITIC Bank (601998. SH).

Among the six banks with a price to book ratio of less than 0.5, Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank was also a new stock, which was listed at the end of October 2019. It broke out on the first day of listing and rose only 20.9% at the end of the listing. The stock price dropped on the second day and broke on the third day. Then, the stock price kept falling, with the lowest price of 3.74 yuan / share and the closing price of 4.03 yuan / share on September 13, with a price to book ratio of 0.47.

However, among the four newly listed banks this year, only Shanghai Agricultural commercial bank and Bank of Chongqing are in a "net breaking" state, and their performance can be described as "average". As of September 13, the price to book ratio of Qilu bank and Ruifeng bank were 1.08 and 1.34 respectively, and the latter ranked third among 41 listed banks.

Among them, Shanghai Agricultural commercial bank was listed on August 19, which was similar to that of Chongqing Agricultural commercial bank. On the first day, it only rose by 20.22%. The next day it was listed, the stock price was broken on the third day, and the lowest stock price fell to 7.65 yuan / share. On September 13, the closing price was 7.96 yuan / share, and the price to book ratio was 0.84; Bank of Chongqing was listed and traded on February 5, but it didn't break until May 10. The lowest price was 8.80 yuan / share and the price to book ratio was 0.80 yuan.

"The banking industry is highly related to the real economy. Last year, under the influence of the epidemic, the market became pessimistic about the economic prospects, and the bank share prices also went down. This year, the economic growth rate has recovered under the background of low base, but it has not fully recovered to the level before the epidemic. In addition, the repeated epidemic situation in some regions has kept the bank share price suppressed. As for individual stocks, the main battle is with banks The retail business of China Merchants Bank and Ningbo bank is relatively optimistic about the market, "said the banking analyst to the 21st century economic report.

As the first listed agricultural commercial bank in Zhejiang Province, why can Ruifeng bank rank the third among 41 listed banks? Zhongtai Securities believes that Ruifeng bank is the leading retail bank in the local market, with high asset yield and good asset quality. According to the financial report, as of the end of June, personal loans accounted for 59.22%, personal deposits accounted for 64.46%, and the non-performing rate was 1.29%.

By comparison, by the end of June, the proportion of personal loans and personal deposits of China Merchants Bank and Ningbo bank were 53.22% and 35.86% respectively; 38.85%、21.52%。