Silicon Price Rises 10% To 250000 Yuan / T In A Week
This week, the price rise of domestic polysilicon material is no longer "depressed".
On September 29, the price released by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) showed that the domestic single crystal compound feeding price range this week was 227000-250000 yuan / ton, with an average transaction price of 238400 yuan / ton, with a week on week increase of 10.94%; The price range of single crystal densification material is 225000-248000 yuan / ton, the average transaction price is 235800 yuan / ton, and the weekly increase is 10.96%.
In fact, on the eve of the announcement of the price by the silicon industry branch, the latest round of silicon material quotation was reported in the industry as high as 260000 yuan / ton, causing an uproar. Although the highest transaction price announced by the silicon industry branch is not 260000 yuan / ton, the transaction price of 250000 yuan / ton has already reached a new high in recent years.
According to the historical data of 21st century economic report, the price of 260000 yuan / T was last quoted by domestic mainstream polysilicon manufacturers 10 years ago. The news of the sharp rise in the price of silicon materials will undoubtedly bring greater impact on the downstream batteries and components, and some enterprises even call out "cost protection war".
The recent fluctuation of photovoltaic industry is obvious. IC photo
Power rationing factors stimulate growth
Previously, the outside world had expected silicon prices in the short term will maintain "box shock.". But obviously, this week's price indicates that at least the upper limit of this "box" has been raised.
This week, since August this year, the domestic silicon material price has achieved eight consecutive rises. Previously, silicon prices due to upstream and downstream game and other factors only maintained a slight upward trend, but this week, the situation was broken.
With this week's domestic single crystal compound feeding and densification material's weekly increase breaking through 10%, the silicon material price returns to ten years ago.
According to wind data, in early October 2011, the average ex factory price including tax of domestic mainstream polysilicon manufacturers was 260000 yuan / ton. In the next month, it dropped to 200000 yuan / ton. The historical data shows that 2010 and 2011 were two years of rapid decline in domestic polysilicon prices. On the one hand, with the progress of production technology and the decrease of cost, the price of domestic polysilicon has the basis of price reduction; However, on the other hand, the European debt crisis in 2011 triggered a decline in international photovoltaic market demand, while the domestic polysilicon production capacity was released rapidly, resulting in excess.
However, in the past ten years, the overall production cost of China's photovoltaic industry chain has decreased significantly. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and vice president of the China Development Research Foundation, recently said, "the cost of photovoltaic power generation has been reduced by 80% - 90% in the past decade, and now the cost is lower than that of traditional coal-fired power generation."
In this context, if the price of silicon material jumps back to 2011, it will undoubtedly be a "retrogression".
It is undeniable that the sharp rise in silicon prices this week "broke into" the power restriction factor. "This round of price increases are concentrated on the raw material side, mainly due to the lack of supply caused by the" dual control of energy consumption ". LV Jinbiao, deputy director of the special committee of the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told 21st century economic reporter that the recent reduction of industrial silicon production in Yunnan has caused the price of silicon powder to rise from 15000 yuan / ton to 60000 yuan / ton, greatly reducing the profit space of polysilicon; At the same time, polysilicon enterprises in some regions suffered from production restriction, and the output was lower than expected.
"Originally, in the fourth quarter, domestic polysilicon production could be increased to more than 43000 tons, meeting the demand for materials for rush loading," said LV Jinbiao.
According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, as of this week, 12 domestic polysilicon enterprises are in production, and two of them are still in the process of maintenance, and it is planned to resume normal operation before the middle of October. In September, the domestic output of polysilicon was 42800 tons, which was basically the same as that in August.
But the production figures were lower than expected. The silicon industry branch had predicted that "the domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach a record high in September, ranging from 43000 tons to 44000 tons, the import volume is expected to maintain at about 10000 tons, and the total supply of silicon materials is between 53000 tons and 54000 tons, which can meet the demand of 18gw silicon wafers in the downstream."
From the present point of view, as the raw material of polysilicon, industrial silicon will remain in short supply. It is reported that at present, most silicon materials enterprises have not fully implemented the amount of silicon powder in October, while some industrial silicon enterprises are reluctant to sell due to the soaring price, which aggravates the current situation of silicon powder supply shortage.
The fourth quarter of industrial chain is not peaceful
Before this round of silicon material price jump, silicon wafer price has entered the rising channel. On September 14 and 18, Longji and Zhonghuan raised the price of silicon wafers successively, and the price of silicon wafers reached a high level.
In fact, when silicon wafer enterprises continue to face the rising production costs caused by the price of silicon materials this year, the power limitation factor has also begun to penetrate in the near future. According to the survey of the industry organization business agency, "the power restriction factor has a significant impact on the production of silicon wafers, especially the production capacity of long crystals and chips is greater than that of the downstream battery production, so the supply of silicon wafers is more tense, and the price rises in tandem."
And in the auxiliary material link, some materials also ushered in the price rise tide. According to the data of PV InfoLink, the average transaction price of 3.2mm and 2.0mm photovoltaic glass coatings this week were 27 yuan / m2 and 21 yuan / m2 respectively, up 3.8% and 5.0% month on month. According to the business agency monitoring, EVA rose nearly 40% this month.
In terms of battery chip, the price of large-size battery chip increased due to the rise of upstream silicon chip price. For example, this week, the average transaction price of 166mm and 182mm size batteries were 1.06 yuan / W and 1.08 yuan / W respectively, up 1% and 0.9%.
However, the battery manufacturers will be subject to the "splinter gas" of the industrial chain: the cost pressure caused by the price rise of silicon materials and silicon wafers will be quickly transmitted to the battery end, but if the battery chip enterprises continue to transmit the cost pressure downward through price increase, the willingness to accept the component end is not strong. According to the 21st century economic report reporter's understanding, power rationing has affected battery and component manufacturers. The person in charge of a front-line component enterprise in Jiangsu told the 21st century economic report that "some of the company's factories have suspended part of their production capacity, and the production capacity of the head component enterprises in the whole Jiangsu region has been affected to varying degrees due to different regional control efforts."
The production of batteries and components has been reduced due to power restriction, and the price of raw materials in upstream is at a high level, and the demand may be "eaten back".
In view of the current jump in the price of raw materials, LV Jinbiao believes that this situation is short-term fluctuation. "Before the end of September is the most tense stage of" dual control of energy consumption "in various regions. There will be a relaxation in the fourth quarter, at least there will be no" one size fits all "shutdown phenomenon
"In addition, there are also market hype factors in the rapid rise of raw material prices. For example, industrial silicon was basically in the state of daily average increase of 10000 yuan last week, which deviated from the relationship between supply and demand, does not conform to the law of value, and should return in the short term." Lu Jinbiao analyzes the 21st century economic reporters.
In the view of industry insiders, the progress and survival of the fittest in the photovoltaic industry need the stimulation of these fluctuations. "Enterprises without technology, management and capital strength will not be able to carry the fluctuations." some insiders told the 21st century economic reporter that the industrial chain is "not peaceful" and "after the 11 long holiday, maybe it will be a different situation."
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