China Cotton Association: The Decrease Rate Of Cotton Planting Intention In China Is Reduced, And The Decline Rate In The Mainland Is Still Large

At the end of February 2022, China Cotton Association conducted a survey on cotton planting intention of 2182 designated farmers in 11 provinces and cities and Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The survey results show that: in 2022, the intended area of cotton planting in China will be 43.176 million mu, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the decrease rate will be reduced by 0.2% compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the intended area of Xinjiang increased by 2% year-on-year, with an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous period. The intended area of the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 18.9% and 9.6%, respectively, 2.5 and 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous period. Affected by factors such as low comparative income and rising prices of agricultural materials, the cotton planting enthusiasm of mainland cotton farmers continued to decline.

Among the surveyed households, 10.1% of the total households were prepared to reduce cotton planting area; 9.0% of the surveyed households were prepared to increase cotton planting area; 62.2% of the cotton planting area was the same as that of last year; 18.7% of the cotton planting intention was not clear.

With the gradual rise of temperature, the work of preparation for cultivation in Xinjiang cotton region has been carried out. Cotton farmers are confident in planting cotton. It is estimated that the cotton planting area will increase by 2% year on year to 37.57 million mu. According to the survey, the spring irrigation in southern Xinjiang has been basically completed, and the price of cotton seeds, plastic film, drip irrigation belt and other commodities used for spring sowing is stable, but the land transfer cost is increased by 400-800 yuan per mu compared with last year, fertilizer is increased by 120-150 yuan per mu, pesticide is increased by 30-50 yuan per mu, water fee is increased by about 30 yuan per mu, and labor cost is increased by 50 yuan per mu. The local governments actively organized the scientific preparation of cotton farming, coordinated the supply of agricultural materials, and ensured the stable production of cotton. Banks have also opened up green channels for cotton farmers to ensure that they have sufficient funds for preparing for farming. The agricultural loan funds are expected to be basically in place in late March, and various agricultural materials reserves will be replenished and completed in the latter ten days of March. Nearly 90% of the surveyed households had the same area as last year, 7.1% of them were ready to increase cotton planting area, and only 2.8% were prepared to reduce cotton planting area.

In 2022, the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to be 2.739 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, and a decrease of 7.6 percentage points compared with the previous period. Although the benefit of cotton planting in the basin will increase significantly in 2021, 40% of farmers are still waiting and waiting, and the enthusiasm of cotton planting is still not high. Affected by the shortage of labor force and cotton planting mode, the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin continued to shrink. 14.0% of the surveyed households were prepared to reduce the area; The area to be increased accounted for 7.4%; 37.8% had the same area as last year.

In 2022, the intended cotton planting area of the Yellow River Basin will be 2.8902 million mu, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% and an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared with the previous period. Among them, Hebei Province had the largest decline due to the labor-intensive planting of cotton compared with other crops (more migrant workers) and low economic benefits. The intended area decreased by 34.8% year-on-year, and increased by 6.5% compared with the previous period. The cotton planting intention in Henan Province increased by 5.5%. This is mainly due to the increase of seed cotton selling price and cotton planting income in 2021. 17.4% of the surveyed households were prepared to reduce the area; The area to be increased accounted for 11.6%; 47.9% of the total area remained the same as last year; There are still 23.2% of the survey households are wandering and waiting.

(source: China Cotton Association)