Market Analysis: It Is Expected That The Short-Term Profit Loss Of Textile Enterprises Will Continue

 

In 2022, the profit of downstream spinning will maintain a loss, the finished product inventory will remain high, and the order and replenishment will not be as expected. Some textile enterprises will report a loss of 1000-1500 yuan / ton for one ton of yarn, and the price of raw materials will be high. The price of cotton with double grade 28 index will be more than 23000 yuan / ton. The price of cotton yarn of textile enterprises will be in the range of 28500-29500 yuan / ton, The price of pure cotton high-end 40s ring spinning is 29500-30500 yuan / ton. In the short term, the cotton price is high, and the transmission of cost increases to the terminal is not smooth. Textile enterprises are forced to take measures such as reducing production and changing production of blended yarn to avoid downtime and holidays; Under the influence of the domestic epidemic situation, the overall market confidence is insufficient, the order follow-up is not as expected, and the pessimistic atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the short-term profit loss of textile enterprises will continue.

Supply side: cotton prices are still at a high level. In order to avoid risks, the textile mill will use and pick as soon as possible. In 2021, the cotton sales progress will be slow, while in 2022, the cotton planting progress will be faster. Cotton farmers will still actively plant cotton on the basis of the "pot full bowl full" earned in 21 years; In the case of loose cotton purchase, it will be difficult for cotton ginners to participate in the new cotton market.

On the demand side, the traditional peak season of "gold, silver and four" has basically failed. Under the weak market demand, the approach of the off-season will only make it more difficult. The overstocking of inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain needs time to digest. The immediate profit of spinning is in full loss, and the overall startup load has decreased significantly.

To sum up, cotton prices are high, textile companies are cautious in purchasing, backward orders are weak, yarn inventory is running at a high level, spinning profits are in full deficit, cotton supply and demand are weak, the pattern will continue to maintain, the terminal demand is generally followed up, the downstream price is depressed, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and the short-term focus is on the inventory digestion of midstream yarn link.