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Gu Qingliang: Director Of Institute Of Textile Economics, Donghua University

2022/5/9 22:06:00 0

Gu Qingliang

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   The repeated impact of the epidemic situation, so that many enterprises into a certain predicament. In the face of the epidemic situation and other uncertainties caused by it, how should textile enterprises deal with it? What are the enterprises doing and thinking when their business is hindered? What suggestions do operators and experts have? "Textile and clothing weekly" interviewed representatives of some enterprises and institutions to get close to the front-line situation and explore the direction for the industry, leading to thinking.
   Since the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic for more than two years, it has brought great damage and harm to human society. Textile industry as a livelihood industry can not be spared. China's textile industry has made great contributions to the revitalization of the world economy and textile industry.
   In the same quarter, China's textile and garment export volume increased by more than 31.52 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.52 billion yuan in textile and clothing enterprises, which was driven by the double profit growth of China's textile and garment industry. The performance of major textile listed companies is better than average, and sports brand performance is eye-catching under the promotion of Winter Olympics. This shows the resilience of China's textile development.
Gu Qingliang
Director, Institute of textile economics, Donghua University
   After the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics, a new round of epidemic situation caused by the Omicron mutation virus is surging to China; The sudden conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to global economic, financial, energy and supply chain crises, which directly hit the textile industry that has begun to take off, adding variables to the world. However, Southeast Asia has lifted its entry restrictions, and textile industry has recovered rapidly due to its cost advantages; The U.S. took the opportunity to manipulate "Xinjiang cotton" again and illegally pressed clothes, which caused the outflow of textile and garment orders, and Chinese textile enterprises once again faced great challenges.
   1、 The future of the world under the superposition of epidemic situation and emergency in the 21st century
   Just as the previous judgment and understanding, the new outbreak is not a general regional public event, nor is the Russian Ukraine incident an ordinary regional conflict. The damage to human society and the world economy is deeper, wider and longer than expected. This has a complex and far-reaching impact on China's textile industry, which is highly globalized and deeply integrated.
   1. Era change: post industrial era
   Scientific and technological innovation and the fourth industrial revolution have led to changes in the way of production and life and even human social relations. The industrial society predicted by Drucker and Toffler is changing into a post industrial society.
   The new scientific and technological revolution has increased productivity and promoted economic development at an unprecedented speed. However, the gap between the rich and the poor and the digital divide are widening. Some emerging economies, especially China, have become the new map of innovation and development, which has promoted economic and social development and created a new world pattern.
   On the other hand, the industrial revolution has shaken the authority of capital and the hegemony of the gold dollar. Extreme egoism has wantonly changed the increasingly perfect global market economy system. The multilateral order has been wantonly destroyed by the "defenders of freedom values": using state power to set "traps", suppress other countries' scientific and technological enterprises, prevent scientific and technological cooperation and free competition, and abuse long arm jurisdiction and sanctions, Force commercial data, cut off normal trade and supply chain.
   These imbalances, contradictions and paradoxes in the great changes show that the free market economy and industrial social system based on "economic rationality" are facing the challenge of the times and the end dilemma.
   2. World textile in the changing times
   When the WTO was established in 1994, the first thing was to cancel the distorted MFA and declare the return to the principle of multilateral free trade. As a result, China's underdeveloped apparel industry, including the United States, benefited from the abolition of trade quotas and multilateralism in 2015. At the end of the transition period, when China has fulfilled all its commitments, the developed countries refuse to recognize China's market economy status. During the period of "Anti Japanese trade", Trump's policy of "no trade with China" is aimed at "increasing the trade gap between China and the United States", They forced producers, purchasers and brands to abandon Xinjiang cotton and its products, manipulate political issues and crack down on Chinese textile enterprises.
   3. The influence and future trend of the epidemic situation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
   The scientific revolution, the industrial revolution, the superposition of the 50-60-year Kangxi cycle, the 10-year financial cycle, and the manipulation of populism and "political correctness" by Western politicians in the election year, all these positive and negative forces agitate and give positive and negative feedback to keep human beings away from equilibrium and turbulence. This is the feature of the world without great changes in a century. The epidemic situation and war conflict are major disturbances at the critical point, which may affect the direction of human beings at the crossroads.
   The mutated virus spread around the world again, spread to China and had a high incidence in many places, which once again impacted the world economy and even China's textile industry. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further deepened the division and confrontation in the world, intensified the humanitarian crisis, and further expanded the injustice in the world epidemic situation. Hegemonic sanctions and wars lead to crises in energy, food and inflation, and raise prices. Stocks of Wall Street and the military industrial complex soar. The fire of interest groups escalates the war and makes peace difficult to achieve.
   Therefore, in the face of major events such as the new coronation epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we should distinguish the general situation, correctly deal with them, do a good job in the present and plan for the long term, which may determine the future of China and the world. Of course, it is also related to the future trend of China's and the world's textile industry.
   2、 Chinese textile enterprises facing the challenge of the world
   Facing the huge impact of repeated epidemic situation and Russia Ukraine conflict on the world economy and China's textile industry, textile enterprises should first have a basic judgment on the development of the industry. That is: 1) textile is always a growing industry in the world economy, and China's textile industry plays an important or even dominant role in the world economy for at least a long time; 2) The epidemic situation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pose great challenges to the great uncertainty of world textile industry. Even in the past, the confrontation of different ideas surrounding future human development will not disappear in a long historical period.
   Therefore, we can understand: from the "belt and road" initiative proposed in 2013 to the "opinions on building a unified big market" in 2022, the meaning and internal logic of building a "community of common destiny for mankind" embodied in a series of major policies and measures. This is not only the macro policy and guidelines, but also the starting point and leverage fulcrum of textile enterprise strategy, and the roadmap of high quality and sustainable development of textile industry.
   1. Build the high quality and sustainable development road of textile industry under the belt and road initiative
   The belt and road is the road to a community of shared future for mankind and the foundation for building global textile sharing, collaborative and inclusive development. However, the "one belt and one road" textile trade has been blocked, and the "one belt and one road" textile industry has been damaged, which proves that the "one belt and one road" textile industry is still under threat, It is the foundation of vitalizing the world textile industry.
   Since 2020, the textile industry along the "belt and road" has helped some countries and regions along the textile industry to expand trade barriers and expand their investment space. The belt and road initiative has made positive contributions to fighting the global epidemic, saving the market downturn and revitalizing the global economy.
   2. Free trade agreement to build a multilateral textile system
   "Regional comprehensive economic partnership" (RCEP) was initiated by ten ASEAN countries, including China and other 15 countries, which constituted the largest free trade area, and came into effect in January 2022. With a population of 3.5 billion, GDP and trade volume account for about 1 / 3 of the world respectively. Major textile and garment producing and exporting countries are concentrated in the region. China's economic aggregate and textile trade are dominant in RCEP. It is conducive to enhancing Asia's position as the economic center of the world.
   The signing and entry into force of RCEP is conducive to the construction of WTO free trade principles and multilateral system, breaking through the adverse current of unilateralism trade protection. The entry into force of RCEP and China's application for joining the cptpp are no less significant than China's accession to WTO and the end of MFA, especially conducive to the sustainable development of textile industry.
   RCEP will fully release the comparative advantages and potential of various countries, solve the difficulties caused by the epidemic situation, and reshape the order of global economic cooperation, trade freedom and multilateralism.
   3. Internal and external "double circulation": tenacity and strength of Chinese textile
   "Double cycle" was put forward when anti globalization, unilateralism and trade protection were rampant, epidemic situation was spreading and the world economy was in trouble. The purpose is to give full play to China's industrial scale advantage and huge domestic demand market potential, based on the domestic, promote domestic and international resources and market double circulation, in order to cope with the complex changes of the times.
   China is the world's largest textile and garment manufacturing country, with the most advanced and comprehensive production system, and is also the largest trading country and potential consumer market. Based on domestic market and resources, China will expand the circulation of domestic and international resources to the market. "Double circulation" is not only an effective strategy to overcome the difficulties, break the blocking and get out of the predicament, but also the idea of building a healthy global industrial network. In the medium and long term, the domestic dual cycle highlights the toughness and brings vitality to the international big cycle, and promotes the construction of global textile industry network. Two years after the launch of the "double cycle", a number of enterprises have emerged in China's textile industry, which have achieved results through technological and management innovation and achieved results through the idea of two cycles from resources to market both at home and abroad. For example, Silk Reeling Enterprises on the border of Yunnan and Myanmar have developed silkworm breeding bases in Yunnan and Myanmar with mulberry breeding and sericulture technology, used scattered land labor resources to help alleviate poverty, provide high-quality silk for international high-end markets, and develop downstream and terminal products relying on the advantages of domestic industrial chain. Even in the case of severe epidemic situation and labor difficulties, the profit growth is still maintained.
   4. Build a unified market and activate the vitality of enterprises
   The opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a unified national market were issued on March 25, 2022. Facing the challenge of global free trade and multilateral order being broken and global textile market and supply chain being torn and cut, China will deepen reform, expand opening up, establish the dominant position of enterprises in the market, eliminate market access threshold and regional barriers, reduce transaction costs, standardize market behavior, further improve market system and activate market vitality.
   Small and medium-sized enterprises are the first to participate in international competition. The "opinions" put forward the goal of building a market economy with Chinese characteristics, which is conducive to giving full play to the advantages of China's large market and large industry, promoting the effective allocation of business environment and industrial capital of textile enterprises, opening up new market space and entering new industrial fields, and creating new digital and virtual formats.
   It is also an important prerequisite for speeding up the market standardization.
   5. ICIF and CIF: innovation platform for balanced growth
   The first China International Import Expo (ciie) opened in Shanghai in 2018, which is called a pioneering work in the history of world trade. It abandons mercantilism and traditional concepts of international trade, and implements the concept of "one belt and one road" cooperation and sharing. Similarly, the first China International Consumer Exposition (CICP) in 2021 embodies the idea of balanced development, balanced import and export trade, and production and consumption.
   Through ciie and CICP two trading platforms, import advanced technology and equipment, all kinds of consumer goods, including high-end luxury goods and fashion products, to help upgrade the industry. To meet the growing consumer demand, promote trade with countries along the belt and road, and accelerate the "double cycle".
   These two platforms help the textile and garment industry to transform into a new globalization and globalization.
   6. Innovation: the eternal power of China's textile industry
   Under the impact of epidemic situation in the world, textile enterprises need to be sensitive to the changes and risks of the market and industry, avoid disadvantages and seek profits, find arbitrage opportunities, and enhance the anti risk and survival ability of enterprises. We need more entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship.
   Transform scientific and technological achievements into applied technologies and products, further transform them into new application scenarios, new fields and new markets, and open up new space for enterprise development.
   With the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, industrial cloud and big data (iabcd), the traditional textile production and the realization of advanced manufacturing, the innovation of operation process and management organization, the improvement of quality and efficiency, the reduction of cost, the reduction of energy consumption, the improvement of the core competence of enterprises, the exploration of new formats, new platforms and new business models, the realization of straight track acceleration, overtaking on curves, lane change and crossing, and opening up or entering new venues.
   The management innovation awards in recent years provide a wealth of cases: textile enterprises use innovation to help fight the epidemic, cope with crisis and challenges, promote advanced manufacturing and digital transformation, break through difficulties and grow against the trend.
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