Market Analysis: Focus On The Future Trend Of Cotton Market At Home And Abroad
Domestically, this week, Zheng Mian saw a high shock, with a maximum of 14480 and a minimum of 14215, presenting a narrow shock pattern of dilemma. In terms of spot goods, as the Spring Festival approaches, cotton enterprises continue to step up their sales of lint in stock, and most enterprises continue to increase their quotations. Some Xinjiang cotton resources have increased by 100-150 yuan/ton. At present, a large number of cotton resources flow into the hands of traders, and spot prices have risen rapidly. At present, the inventory of raw materials of textile enterprises is generally low. Because the difference of lint resources with high quality and low impurity content is slightly high, textile enterprises prefer to buy it now resources, and the overall spot transaction of lint is good. However, with the approaching holiday, the enthusiasm for stocking up before the year has gradually decreased. At present, the main force of spot market transactions is still traders.
Internationally, the international cotton price rose sharply and fell back this week, rising to 87.58 cents/pound on Monday, and then began to fall back. On Thursday, due to the negative suppression of USDA report, the cotton price fell sharply to the lowest 82 cents/pound. According to the monthly report of USDA in January, the decrease in demand data was greater than the decrease in output, and the ending inventory increased slightly, which was bad for the market. In addition, judging from the contracted exports of American cotton that week, although the contracted shipment volume of American cotton increased compared with that of the previous week, it was still at a low level in recent years, or to some extent, it gave the market pricing space for the expected weakening of demand.
In terms of textiles, the accumulated orders of enterprises in the early stage can not match the current start-up rate. Some large mills have planned to shorten the vacation time or delay delivery. At present, the market is optimistic about the consumer demand after the year, and most enterprises have been scheduled until February to April. The Guangzhou Zhongda Textile Business District was closed at 6:00 p.m. on January 12, and the opening of the surrounding cloth factories has been gradually reduced. Some enterprises with more orders have the mentality of continuing to increase the price. New orders are all in the stage of proofing and confirmation. The main task before the year was to collect funds and issue orders in time. Export orders of medium and large cotton mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved slightly, while domestic orders in the northern market accounted for a large proportion. Most holidays are around 7-10, and some will return to work gradually on the sixth day of the first lunar month.
Macroscopically, the month on month growth of US CPI in December recorded the first negative value in 32 months, - 0.1%, with an annual rate of 6.5%, falling for six consecutive months, and the annual rate of core CPI was 5.7%. Biden said that inflation has declined, giving people room to breathe. Some believe that the 75 basis points era of sharp interest rate hikes has passed, and the recent employment data is still strong. Last night, most markets and product sectors in Europe, America and even the world rose in shock, and stocks, bonds and commodities rose at the same time in Europe and the United States again.
On the whole, with the rapid increase of Xinjiang cotton processing, the cumulative processing volume of cotton enterprises has continued to shrink year-on-year. The domestic new cotton output is expected to increase, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. At the demand side, some textile enterprises have reduced their finished product inventory, replenished a small amount of raw materials, and the start-up rate has picked up. However, textile enterprises are gradually entering the holiday near the Spring Festival, and the momentum of subsequent raw material procurement has weakened. Cotton mills have certain expectations for the post holiday market, but there is still some uncertainty whether the strong expectations can be implemented into reality. Zheng Mian is still in the rising channel, but the resistance above is also increasing. The pressure level near 14500 may still need further clarification of both supply and demand to drive the breakthrough.
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