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Cotton Market: New Cotton Is Still Ready To Go On Sale Immediately.

2010/9/17 17:31:00 35


The recent selling of state reserves continues.

New cotton

Large scale picking has already started. Under the background of tight supply, the trend of Zhengyang cotton is still rising.

The main 1105 contract successfully went through the 18000 pass in September 2nd and rose to 19000 in September 10th. In the half month since September, the price has risen by about 1500 yuan / ton, or more than 8%. It has become the most eye-catching commodity market in the near future.

Frequent market interest, US cotton continues to rise.

The recent uplink of Zheng cotton has been largely affected by the continued high impact of US cotton.

The near future

international market

With more news about Lido, the US Department of agriculture's September report further lowered the cotton inventory expectations this year, and strengthened investor confidence.

In the current year, the US cotton end inventory dropped 109 thousand tons to 588 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased to 14.14%, the lowest value since 1995/1996. The end of the world inventory dropped 37 thousand tons to 9 million 894 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio adjusted to 37.7%, the lowest value since 1994/1995.

In addition, tropical storms raged in the main cotton fields of the United States, bringing stormy weather, threatening the quality and yield of new cotton harvested.

Because of opposition from India's domestic textile mills, the India government may delay the lifting of the ban on cotton exports, provided that it first meets domestic cotton demand and exports high tariffs on cotton exports.

Stimulated by the above news, the US cotton main contract in December broke 90 cents mark on September 7th and opened up the space for us cotton to continue upward.

Due to the good expectation of the trend of the US cotton in the late stage, the recent admission of speculative capital has also contributed to the rise of the US cotton market. Even the decline in the US cotton export data has failed to reduce the enthusiasm of speculative capital.


Macro economy

On the other hand, major economies such as the US, Europe and Japan are expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, which will also help maintain a strong market as a whole.

The main producing areas are unfavorable weather.

The 8 and September of each year are the key period for determining the cotton output in the new year. The uncertainty of the weather is bigger and there are more opportunities for speculation.

At present, new cotton picking has been launched in a large scale in China. Affected by continuous rainfall, the number of stiff valves and mouldy peach in the main producing areas of Hebei Province has increased, and the quality and yield of cotton have been adversely affected.

Affected by the three typhoons, the two provinces in the Yangtze River Valley, Jiangsu and Anhui, had more rainfall, and the quality of cotton had declined. Large dust storms occurred in southern Xinjiang, and rain and snow weather occurred in Hami, which also threatened the growth of cotton.

The next half a month or so is the critical period for determining cotton output. The weather conditions in the main producing areas need to be focused. Once the continuous rainy weather occurs in the producing areas, it will aggravate the supply shortage and boost cotton prices.

National cotton auction enthusiasm rising

Domestic and foreign cotton futures prices rose sharply, making the market price of new cotton is expected to increase, the speed of dumping and storage pactions faster.

In September 13th, the price of standard basket grade cotton was 19906 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 16960 yuan / ton up to 2946 yuan / ton, which was higher than the initial price of dumping and storage. It was also higher than the national cotton price B index of 1600 yuan / ton.

The enthusiasm of textile enterprises in bidding for cotton reserves has also increased rapidly, and the number of participants has increased.

As of September 13th, the total amount of dumping and storage was 379 thousand and 900 tons, accounting for 63.3% of the 600 thousand tons plan.

Raw material inventory declined, product sales improved.

With the consumption of raw materials, industrial stocks in downstream textile enterprises have further declined, and purchase intention has been enhanced.

The "cotton industry inventory report" released recently by the national cotton market monitoring system showed that in the early September, the average number of cotton stocks used by enterprises surveyed was about 36.7 days, which had declined for 4 consecutive months. The textile enterprises preparing raw materials accounted for 70% of the total survey, which was 13 percentage points higher than that in early August.

As the sales of cotton yarn and cotton cloth in the lower reaches have improved, the quotations have increased and market volume has increased.

At present, in the main representative varieties of cotton yarn market, the average price of pure cotton combed 40 yarn, air spinning 10 yarn, pure cotton and combed 32 yarns has been rising continuously.

In the cotton market, the price of grey cloth has risen all the way, and sales have been enlarged.

Textile enterprises, due to the main producing areas of Hebei, Shandong and Jiangsu parts of the area suffered continuous rainy weather, the market for cotton production is expected to increase, the enterprise auction national storage cotton enthusiasm increased.

To sum up, with the continuous selling of state reserves, new cotton will soon be listed on a large scale, and the domestic supply and demand fundamentals will become more relaxed.

But taking into account the tight global supply of cotton, the support from the US cotton will continue in the later stage, and domestic adverse weather will continue to provide hype for capital, and further stimulate the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises.

Zheng cotton is expected to remain strong in the short term, and is expected to hit the 20000 point.

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