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The US Dollar Recovered From Its 7 Month High Rally.

2014/10/17 13:59:00 10

US DollarRMBHigh Callback

On Tuesday evening, the dollar in the international exchange market gradually resumed its upward trend. Weak European economic data pushed down the euro and pushed the US dollar index up. On the same day, the US dollar index of New York's foreign exchange market closed at 85.8, basically recovering the lost land on Monday.

Affected by this, the central parity rate of the central bank's RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.1455 on Wednesday, down 47 basis points from the previous day, leaving the nearly 7 month high.

On the interbank foreign exchange market, the RMB yuan dollar spot inquiry paction opened at 6.1256 on Wednesday, showing a narrow trend throughout the day, ending at 6.1259, down 12 basis points from the previous day.

Foreign exchange traders pointed out that Wednesday


Spot exchange rate callbacks, on the one hand, are guided by the middle price, and on the other hand are not related to the low CPI data disclosed within the day.

In September, CPI rose to the "1 era", PPI year-on-year and annulus decline further expanded, highlighting the demand for the real economy is insufficient, the economy is still facing downward pressure.

The near future,


Short term pullback, the RMB exchange rate trend is strong, but the market is not optimistic about the subsequent appreciation of the RMB space.

First, the fundamentals still support the rise of the US dollar, and the short-term adjustment of the US dollar will not hinder the long-term upward trend.

Two, the downward pressure on China's economic stage is relatively large, and fundamentals do not support it.

exchange rate

Substantial appreciation.

In fact, the spread of the spot exchange rate between the offshore and offshore renminbi has widened, indicating that the overseas market does not agree with the strong domestic exchange rate.

Data show that around 17 p.m. on Wednesday, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in the Hongkong market was about 6.1380, about 120 basis points lower than the domestic exchange rate.

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Unlike the unilateral appreciation in 2012 and last year, the lifting of the RMB exchange rate was not on the rise; in the middle of 9, after a series of weak economic data (HSBC China PMI and so on) came out, the US dollar rebounded from 6.1261 to 6.1533, regardless of the intermediate price and the spot exchange rate, showing a bilateral fluctuation of slow rise.

In October 9th, Wang Dan, deputy inspector of the two division of the central bank's monetary policy, said at the IPO conference of the London stock exchange group that after the Beijing and Hong Kong Exchanges, the RQDII pilot project will be launched, allowing individuals to use Renminbi directly to carry out overseas investments, including securities, industrial and real estate investment.

In fact, RQDII had already raised the issue of negotiating the RQFII quota with the Singapore monetary authority in October last year.

The reporter found this expression on the official website of the Singapore monetary authority. "Singapore will be allowed to become one of the first RQDII investment destinations.

Chinese institutional investors can use Renminbi to invest directly in Singapore's capital market. "

The RQDII pilot also appeared in the Sino British bilateral financial dialogue.

Yang Yuting analysis, the so-called open capital account, must be two-way, regulators want to pilot capital inflow, and then promote capital "go out", Shanghai and Hong Kong pass itself gives capital free access options.

He said that the total amount of Shanghai Stock Exchange (300 billion yuan) was greater than that of Hong Kong stock (250 billion yuan), and the opening of capital account was first inflow and outflow. Capital inflow is still favorable for RMB appreciation in the short term, but it is difficult to predict how long-term capital flows.

The investment bank's expectations for the RMB exchange rate at the end of this year are more conservative. HSBC and Australia and New Zealand bank respectively estimate the spot exchange rate at the end of the year is 6.14 and 6.15.

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