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When And Where Is The Real Bottom Of The Market?

2016/12/25 14:57:00 32

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From the analysis and observation of market hot spots and corresponding plates, although

Concept of placards

And so on, the trend is still warm and sluggish. A group of strong stocks on Friday also sluggish, but mixed with the concept of stocks, this week's performance is very eye-catching, especially like China Unicom, Eastern Airlines, petrochemical double hero and other elephants, Zhou Junni this trend Rose (for example, for analysis reference).

The rest of the weight plate, such as four big lines, four big insurance and so on, the stock price of the related stock has mostly returned to the early adjustment platform, or near the starting point of September, and the space to continue downward has become very limited. Most of the stocks in the brokerage sector have not finished the same end, but the "high mountain" since the end of September has been completed.

Some even returned to the understanding before the night. Coal, nonferrous metals, real estate, iron and steel, construction and railway infrastructure have been adjusted for many days.

Some have even entered the market before adjustment (such as gold, copper and some other stocks).

One of the main reasons for the adjustment of the current round of market adjustment is that the supply exceeds demand. This is due to the two parts of the blue chip variety, such as value reversion, valuation repair, and the concept of placards, together with a large number of restricted stock lifting, non reduction of size and IPO intensive distribution.

When the stock price of the above "big guys" is squeezed eight or nine or ten, it means at least that there will be very limited space for them to fall further.

market index

It may not be able to kill.

From the gap observation, this round of adjustment, Shanghai stock index has appeared on the Japanese line above 2 downward gap gap, and from 30 minutes and other K-line downward jump gap, up to 4 or so.

Shanghai stock index on Friday, in 30 minutes, 60 minutes and other charts above, although homeopathy closed off Tuesday's upper gap gap, but from 3084 points, there is still a difference of about 19 points.

Will there be a new gap in the next week? Or will it stabilize or stabilize in the near future low?

Observe from the moving average system.

Shanghai Composite Index

There are several strong support areas from below: 120 daily, 144 day, 20, 30 and 60.

Among them: the 20 weekly line is near the 3106 point, forming the first line of defense for the Shanghai stock index; the half line and the 60 week line are all around 3090 points up and down, forming second defense lines for the Shanghai stock index; 144 daily lines and 30 weekly lines are located near the top of the 3050 points, forming a third line of defense for the Shanghai stock index; besides, 3095 points, 3084 points, and 3084 points are also very important.

It is no easy task for the short market to continue to enter the long drive and enter the multi hinterland built by the above multi defense lines. Of course, the pressure from the upper level is also great pressure! Some short - and medium term average lines are in short order, and MACD continues to descend, all of which take time to repair.

Judging from the trend line, the stock index is still tenaciously running on a medium and long term upward trend line since 2638.

Its next strong support area is probably between 3100 ~3050 points.

In other words, even if the market is short enough to borrow 50 points from the sky, the trend line will still become a rare and impregnable Ma to Nuo defense line.

From the time period, the stock index has been adjusted for 4 weeks since its peak in late November.

If we start from the 3301 point high point, the stock index has been running for about 19 trading days.

Next Tuesday will usher in a more important time window.

Will the index continue to be broken down? Or is it the two time that the bottom is successful? This is also crucial.

From the golden section and so on, if the adjustment since 3301 points is regarded as a common callback on the way up since the 2638 point, then, corresponding to the rising band at 2969 ~3301 point, the 0.618 division of the adjustment will be around 3095 points.

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Stock Index crashed into the half year line, and stopped at 3084 points and pulled back. Apart from the short term decline and the strong supporting role of the important average line, it was also related to the decline in the above theory.

If the adjustment has been made since the 3301 point, because of the serious imbalance between market supply and demand and the serious lack of investor confidence, it has gradually evolved into a deep correction on the whole big form. In that case, the situation will become more complicated.


From the form of observation, there are peers like to use head and shoulder and other measurements to predict the decline (the current round of adjustment), also can.

The measured drop is around 3100.

Sum up: first, the fundamentals are still more tangled; the two is that the phased land has not yet appeared; the three is that the weight plate has limited space; four, it does not exclude that there will be third gaps; the five is that the Shanghai stock index has strong support at 3100 o'clock ~3050 points; six is the medium-term upward trend has not gone bad; seven is likely to usher in a more important time window at the end of December; eight is considering the wave shape and theoretical measurement of declines.

In short, all is reasonable.

Do not rule out the next big market, there may be "last fall" and so on the possibility of extreme trend! For this, investors need to have some mental preparation.

It is optimistic that if the Shanghai composite index can successfully complete the magic interpretation such as "multiple bottom unification" at the end of the month, the end of the market and the end of the market in the next week or so, the legendary cross year quotations are expected to develop slowly after washing through the wind and rain.

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