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The Upsurge Is Fading, When Will PTA Price Fall?

2019/5/27 11:37:00 13297

PTA Price

The PTA market is changing. With the release of bad news and the suspension of mainstream supply, the spot market price has dropped sharply.

surface One The near future PTA Equipment maintenance list

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise name

capacity

Planned maintenance

Plan restart

Jiangyin Hon bang 2#

Two hundred and twenty

Four On December 3, it dropped to 8.

Four Load 7 to 9 per month

Ningbo Taiwan

One hundred and twenty

Five Maintenance for 8 months

Five Restart on 22 May, 23 day stability

Luoyang petrochemical

Thirty-two point five

Four Maintenance for 20 months

Plan to restart in June 5th

Shanghai petrochemical

Forty

Five Maintenance for 24 months

Plan to restart near June 23rd

Sichuan's ability to vote

One hundred

Five On 21 may, 22 of the qualified products were tested.

Yisheng Ningbo

Sixty-five

Plan 5-6 month maintenance

Time to be determined

Fuhai creation

Four hundred and fifty

Scheduled for the end of June -7 month maintenance

The plan is about 20 days.

Source: lung Chung

In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of the PTA plant has passed, and the production has been stable. And the 1 million tons of Sichuan chemical industry (Shengda) has been produced. At the same time, under the temptation of high processing fee, the overload of PTA plant has led to a steady increase in the supply side.

chart 12019 year PTA Processing fee chart

 1.png

As of May 23rd, the cost end PX price closed at $867.75, a decrease of 10.85 percentage points from 105.58 yuan last month. PTA prices closed at 5675 yuan, down 865 yuan, or 13.25 percentage points. PTA price decline is greater than PX decline, and PX profit has been near the cost line, PTA is still relatively high. According to long Zhong information, the production cost of PTA is calculated. The production cost of domestic PTA plant is 5119.86 yuan / ton, and the processing cost of PTA is 1155 yuan / ton, down 456 yuan from last month, or 28.3%. According to the processing fee of 600 yuan, PTA still has a larger profit margin. If the market still has no good news guidelines, it will not rule out that the processing profit will continue to be compressed.

surface Two Downstream polyester repair and reduction plan

Unit: 10000 tons

factory Involving capacity repair time Estimated restart time Products involved
Luoyang petrochemical Ten April 26th Early June Psf
Shihua synthetic fiber Fifteen April 26th Early June Psf
New Feng Ming Twenty-nine point five Stop 40 thousand tons at the end of April and reduce output by 700 tons / day in mid May. Undetermined Polyester filament
Jin Lun Fifty Production decreased by 400 tons / day at the end of April, 500 tons / day in May 19th, and 200 thousand tons in May 23rd. The 200 thousand ton filament is expected to be overhauled for half a month. Polyester staple and polyester filament
Hua Hong Twenty May 7th Undetermined Psf
Tiansheng Forty May 8th At present, the 200 thousand ton plant has resumed operation, and the remaining 200 thousand units are expected to resume in the near future. Polyester filament
Jiabao Three point six Month reduction of 100 tons / day Undetermined Polyester filament
Three lane Forty 200 thousand devices were suspended in May 9th and May 15th respectively. Undetermined Polyester staple and polyester filament
Tianlong Three point six May 10th reduction of 100 tons / day Undetermined Polyester filament
A factory in Jiangsu Eighteen Down the middle Undetermined Polyester filament and polyester chip
Tong Kun Ten May 10th Estimated 1 months Polyester filament
Quan di Sixteen It dropped to 6 in May 14th. Undetermined Polyester staple and polyester filament
Sheng Hong Four Within the month, slicing is decreasing, and total reduction is 100 tons / day. Undetermined PET chip
Xiang Lu Twelve 30% reduction in mid May Undetermined Filament and staple fiber
Hua Xin Three May 13th reduction of 80 tons / day Undetermined Polyester filament
Jinsheng Two Began to reduce production to 8 in May 15th. Undetermined Polyester filament
Shen Jiu Two point one May 16th reduction of 60 tons / day Undetermined Polyester filament
Baosheng Four point five Began to reduce production to 7 in May 16th. Undetermined PET bottle flakes
Wings Of The Eagle Twenty Began to reduce production to 5 in May 15th. Undetermined Polyester filament
Shanghai petrochemical Thirty-five May 17th June 22nd Slicing and staple fiber
Yi Peng Twenty May 18th May 30th Polyester filament
Big wo Fifty Cut production to 5 Undetermined Polyester filament
Zhuo Cheng Five point four Cut production to 7 Undetermined Polyester filament
A factory in Jiangsu Twenty The end of June Undetermined PET chip
Rinda Eighteen June 10th June 28th Polyester filament and polyester chip
Ancient towpath One hundred and twenty June Undetermined Slicing, filament and industrial yarn

At present, the average operation of the polyester industry is 89.45%, down 1.88% compared with last week. Next week, Shanghai Petrochemical 340 thousand tons and Jiaxing Yifang 200 thousand tons maintenance plan, and Zhuocheng, dwo and other factories have negative plans, the supply of polyester field will further decline, and the 400 thousand tons of equipment repair and repair of Tiansheng early in the week will restart again next week, so it is expected that polyester will start to rise next week after next week. It is estimated that the average start of polyester will be around 87.69% next week, and the decline will be 1.96%.

On the whole, the PTA market starts its own operation rate to a high level, and overloads production under high profits. In addition, Sichuan's energy suppliers are facing superior products. The supply of goods will flow to East China, and the supply will only increase. At the same time, downstream polyester and terminal demand continued to slump, factory finished inventory continued to drag up, polyester factories more preferential shipping, profits quickly compressed, affected by this, polyester factory production and maintenance efforts to further increase, the contradiction between supply and demand highlighted, PTA market prices fell.

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