Mogujie.Com Faces Great Challenges From The Valuation Of $3 Billion To Market Capitalization Of 300 Million.

Mogujie.com, which is known as the "first seller of fashion business", is facing a dilemma that its share price has dropped by nearly 80% and its market value has shrunk by 1 billion 200 million US dollars. From the successful landing of the New York Stock Exchange to serious blood loss, only six months before and after. More than three years ago, when mogujie.com and Mei said that they had just merged, their valuation was as high as $3 billion.

Not long ago, mogujie.com released its first annual earnings report since its launch, despite a year-on-year growth of 10.39% in the 2019 fiscal year, and a net loss narrowing by about 42.96% compared to the same period last year. However, it has not yet made profits, and the number of active users has almost stagnated. After the issuance of the earnings report, the share price has continued to decline, showing that the capital market is not confident about it.

The only highlight is mogujie.com's live broadcasting business since 2016. In the 2019 fiscal year, mogujie.com's GMV (total turnover) was 17 billion 408 million yuan, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year, of which GMV grew 138.1% from the live broadcast business.

Insiders said that early mogujie.com caught up with the bonus period of the development of the electricity supplier, but at present, the whole business channel is facing diversification and fragmentation. Taobao, Tmall, Jingdong, many spells, Xiao Hong book and even the jitter and quick hand can share the electricity supplier's spoils. Mogujie.com has no obvious differentiation advantage, and is facing great challenges.

Others believe that mogujie.com's recent live broadcast may be an opportunity for its turning around, especially the mogujie.com's live broadcast supply chain characterized by deep tillage. The platform provides the live broadcasting position for the brand, and creates a selection storehouse for the anchor, and establishes a fast and effective cooperation between the two parties, which may bring new growth points.

However, judging from what has already been achieved, it is too early to say that live broadcast can save mogujie.com.

　　 1 active users are not rising.

As of July 2, 2019, mogujie.com's stock price closed at $2.89 / share, with a total market value of US $309 million. This is far from the market price of $14 issued by mogujie.com at the end of 2018 and the market value of $1 billion 500 million. What's wrong with mogujie.com?

In May 30th, mogujie.com released its unaudited financial results in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 (January 1, 2019 -3 31) and the 2019 fiscal year (March 31st April 1, 2018 -2019).

In the 2019 fiscal year, mogujie.com's total revenue was 1 billion 74 million 300 thousand yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year. The net loss after adjustment was 239 million 700 thousand yuan, while the net loss in the 2018 fiscal year was 420 million 200 thousand yuan, narrowing 42.96% compared to the same period.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019, mogujie.com's total revenue was 217 million 600 thousand yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the previous year, a net loss of 140 million 800 thousand yuan, and a net loss of 154 million 700 thousand yuan in the same period in 2018. Despite the narrowing of the year-on-year losses, mogujie.com's revenue last quarter was 367 million 200 thousand yuan from the annulus, while its fourth quarter revenue fell by 40%.

Besides the loss, the biggest bottleneck for mogujie.com is the growth of the number of users. As of March 31, 2019, the number of active users released by mogujie.com was 32 million 800 thousand, a decrease of 1 million 700 thousand from 34 million 500 thousand in December 31, 2018.

Tencent, as the largest shareholder of mogujie.com holding 18%, has given mogujie.com huge support. WeChat payment and QQ wallets have set up an access channel for mogujie.com, but this move seems to be effective.

Mogujie.com's revenue structure mainly consists of three parts: marketing services, commission income and other income.

In the 2019 fiscal year, mogujie.com earned 507 million 700 thousand yuan in commission revenue, an increase of 22% over the same period last year, and marketing services revenue fell 16.97% to 395 million 700 thousand yuan over the same period. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019, the commission income was 116 million 500 thousand yuan, up 37.3% from the 84 million 900 thousand yuan in the same period last year. The income from marketing services was 71 million 300 thousand yuan, down 6.6% from the 76 million 400 thousand yuan in the same period last year. Other income was 29 million 800 thousand yuan, an increase of 26 million 500 thousand yuan over the same period last year.

The proportion of revenue is closely related to mogujie.com's efforts to broadcast live business. On the one hand, the increase of commission income is due to the growth of mogujie.com GMV. On the other hand, it is driven by the higher commission rate of live broadcast and quality businesses, and their proportion in the platform GMV is getting higher and higher.

In fiscal year 2019, mogujie.com platform GMV was 17 billion 408 million yuan, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year. Among them, GMV from mogujie.com's live broadcast business grew by 138.1% over the same period, and the average monthly activity of live mobile users increased by 42.1% over the same period last year.

Mogujie.com said to ID:rancaijing that "the revenue from marketing services has declined and the business commission revenue has increased" is the company's active choice in revenue strategy.

"We aim to provide quality retailers with fashionable choices, supply chain capabilities, and build up their own brands and pay close attention to customer experience. We provide them with an overall solution including anchor docking, fashion content and customer service, rather than letting businesses blindly compete for advertising traffic. The platform helps businesses better serve users, while achieving win-win benefits with businesses, we believe that this is a more long-term way of development, "mogujie.com staff said.

But the reality that can not be ignored is the market value that has been shrinking. In just six months, mogujie.com's share price fell by nearly 80%, and its market value shrank by about 1 billion 200 million dollars.

Mogujie.com said that mogujie.com's losses continued to narrow, and its business strategy paid more attention to the continuous expansion of free cash flow.

Li Chengdong, an e-commerce analyst, said that early investors' selling of stocks would have some impact on stock prices. Besides, mogujie.com's development was less than expected, and it was also an important reason for not supporting the stock price.

2 merger beauty says no 1+1 is greater than 2.

Mogujie.com was founded in 2011, the earliest location is the content shopping platform. Users choose products on the platform to jump directly to Taobao, mogujie.com earn diversion diversion.

At the beginning of its founding, mogujie.com grew rapidly, and the reputation of its employees was once very good. Today, we can still see a lot of posts that praise mogujie.com's working environment on the Internet. For example, the company is equipped with apple computer, can apply for ergonomic seats, have rich breakfast every day, and have extra time supper.

When the C round of financing was completed in 2014, mogujie.com's valuation reached 1 billion dollars, and in 2015, it raised 50% of the old employees.

In fact, since 2013, mogujie.com's model has aroused the vigilance of Ali, and Ali has introduced the policy of blocking the third party shopping guide platform, which has led mogujie.com to become a self operated electric provider.

Mogujie.com was also banned directly from competing products beauty said. It was established in 2009 as a female fashion community, completing 5 rounds of financing, financing a total of $250 million, and the highest valuation reached US $2 billion.

In 2015, mogujie.com and Mei said they both tried to go public, but the capital was in the cold winter and the plan was stranded. In order to maximize the scale effect, in 2016, mogujie.com merged with beauty and set up the beautiful joint group, which became a shopping guide and electricity supplier platform which was vertical to the female group. Its products including mogujie.com, beauty, uni and other products were valued at $3 billion.

However, the two companies that sold nearly 20 billion yuan in 2015 were only 9 billion yuan a year after the merger.

Mogujie.com, which has been losing money for many years, chose to go to the New York Stock Exchange in 2018 when its capital was cold and heavy in winter. The issue price was $14, and the opening price was $12.25. The intraday drop was over 17%, the first day it received 13.39 dollars, and its total market value was 1 billion 500 million US dollars. This has also led to many discussions about the failure of mogujie.com + beauty to achieve the "1+1>2" effect.

This market value is only half of what mogujie.com said when it merged beautifully. Many of the older employees who held the option to do financial freedom dreams suddenly broke up. At that time, the option of mogujie.com employees was converted to ADS in the proportion of 25:1, compared with the options listed after Internet Co listing, potatoes were 4:1, Jiayuan was 1.5:1, Ali was 1:1, Youku's 18:1 had already dissatisfied many old employees. But mogujie.com once again refreshed the public's understanding.

Later, mogujie.com CEO June also responded specifically to the matter. Ali was driven by the huge market capitalization and led to the wealth growth of all employees. Mogujie.com is just a small company. "I am responsible only for clients, shareholders and staff growth. I am not responsible for anyone's expectations of financial freedom."

Sasa, an employee of former beauty, said that the early beauty and mogujie.com were not very different from Xiao Hong's book, but when they might have shopping needs in the early years, they would not go to share the recommendation. Now we prefer to see the real use experience and shopping experience of net red and bloggers.

"Two companies have been successful in packaging and listing, but it is hard to say in specific businesses, because the styles of the two companies are different, and there are challenges in business adjustment and personnel management." Sasa said.

In her view, the problem of mogujie.com is that it has not yet found a precise and precise positioning, which is like doing the same as the little red book, and doing the goods in the form of Taobao live broadcast. In addition, mogujie.com has many low unit price goods, but now the post-90s and 00 have strong spending power, and may be more willing to choose higher quality products. "If it really positioning itself is a cost-effective, low price electricity supplier, it should get the three or four line sinking market crowd." Sasa said.

3 is the live supply chain useful?

As a shopping guide community + e-commerce platform, mogujie.com's influence in shopping guide is far less than Xiao Hong's book. There are many rivals such as Alibaba, Jingdong, vip.com and so on. In mogujie.com's relatively low-end electricity supplier, there are many such strong competitors, and mogujie.com is not very prominent in terms of brand, product category, price, user scale and so on. Mogujie.com has been working hard to find a breakthrough from 2016.

June once said: "we enrich the content, enhance user participation in the live broadcast business, promote the rate of repeat purchase, continue to expand, optimize and upgrade the supply chain of the fashion ecosystem."

At present, there are more than 1.8 broadcasted hosts in mogujie.com. Through the establishment of a business alliance, mogujie.com helps anchor providers to solve the supply chain problems, provides the live broadcast positions for brands, creates a selection library for the anchor, and helps the brand establish cooperation with the anchor.

Mogujie.com prospectus shows that in September 2018, the platform users spent more than 35 minutes per day watching live broadcast, and the amount of video live broadcast business was about 1 billion 400 million yuan, accounting for 17.7% of the total GMV.

The characteristics of mogujie.com live broadcasting are that it focuses more on fashion and operation of people. For the anchor's perfect incubation system and system, it can quickly increase the selection and wear ability of the anchor. In terms of supply chain, the platform has done a deeper job on the commodity's new speed, popularity and host and user matching.

Mogujie.com has been emphasizing fashion, but most of the products sold in live and shopping mall are less than 100 yuan per unit price, and the brand characteristics are not too prominent, which seems far from the tonal nature of fashion.

Mogujie.com believes that their fashion needs to be adapted to everyone. The Chinese market is huge. Based on the differences in geographical, cultural, physical and consumption levels, fashion scenes and fashion needs are different. Mogujie.com insists on matching fashion users and anchors with users, providing fashion solutions to users with similar figure and style.

Mogujie.com has said that in the past three years, the company's live broadcasting business has maintained a three digit growth rate, which has increased the number of mogujie.com users by 4 times, bringing significant user value. Compared to the growth of MAU, the company is more concerned about converting platform traffic to live streaming users.

　 So can live broadcast save mogujie.com?

In 2018, the market size of China's live streaming industry was about 50 billion, and the number of live online subscribers reached 456 million. In the next few years, the growth of market size and user scale will both slow down and enter a stable period.

In 2018, Taobao's live broadcast increased by 350%, and the GMV of the whole year was broken by 100 billion. In addition, Taobao's live broadcast also suggested that the GMV will break through 500 billion yuan in the next three years. Jitter, fast hand are also doing live business. The fast life is 160 million, and the shaking day is 200 million, and the Taobao live is over 150 million.

Mogujie.com did not disclose daily active users, but its active buyers in 2018 were only 34 million 500 thousand. So mogujie.com has no advantage in user scale, and its user growth is also showing signs of weakness.

Dolphin think tank Business Analyst Lin Yanwen said that from the earnings report, mogujie.com's live GMV accounted for a rapid rise, it can be seen that mogujie.com tried to re transform to seize the direct stream of live electricity providers. In the fiscal year of 2019, mogujie.com broadcast GMV about 4 billion yuan, the growth rate reached 138.1%, accounting for the total transaction volume increased from 11.8% in the 2018 fiscal year to 23.3%, although the growth rate is fast, but from the absolute value of GMV, it is not amazing.

"Internally, mogujie.com is able to reach users through user, KOL and content editing team production. Users play an important role in content production and commodity realisation. Mogujie.com's current traffic volume and growth rate almost stagnate, which may affect the richness of the content of the platform, as well as the attraction of businesses, brands and KOL. With the fierce competition, they may become more and more traffic volume." Lin Yanwen said.

Retail expert Bao Yuezhong believes that mogujie.com has caught up with the bonus period of the development of the electricity supplier, and has been developing rapidly in the early stage. However, mogujie.com's main female consumer groups are facing greater competition and challenges. It is not enough to do the online retail business alone, but the brand diversification, the online and offline operation capabilities and marketing methods need to be strengthened.

Live broadcasting, especially the deep ploughing of the live supply chain, is a very important card in mogujie.com's current hand, but it is yet to be tested whether it can reverse the wind.