Demand For Chemical Fiber Raw Materials Is Still Falling.

A sharp analysis of the tiger, the ups and downs all see no spectrum, data model re analysis, not ten UAVs. This is the true portrayal of the oil market today. In September 12th, Saudi Arabia's oil equipment was attacked, and the "three barrels of oil" rose sharply at home and abroad. Crude oil is the source of the whole polyester industry chain. Oil prices are so crazy. PX, PTA and PET staple fiber are all right.

Shock and price rise

Table 1 price changes of chemical fiber industry chain before and after mid autumn Festival

The opening date of the first day of the festival was 17%, and the WTI jumped 6.76 in the whole day, or 12.26%; Brent opened 19% higher, and the whole day gained 7.28, or 12.23%. PTA also changed the previous shock pattern, opened up to 5328 yuan / ton, the whole day rose 288, or 5.65%. Ethylene glycol opened in one step, direct trading, the whole day rose 580, or 11.95%. The price of polyester staple fiber is also very high, and it has been raised by 200 yuan / ton.

Although early polyester has experienced a long time of holding down and falling, but the sharp rise in oil prices, the polyester industry chain to enhance the effect is obvious. Production and sales rebounded sharply, supply was allowed to expand, orders started to improve, and under the psychology of buying or selling, the downstream textile enterprises and cloth factories began to buy raw materials gradually. For the mills, the price of raw materials will rise and the price of the spinning enterprises will rise. The cloth factories will be happy to buy yarn. For the cloth factories, the price of raw materials will rise, and the price of the stock for the current 30-50 days will be raised, and more profits can be made, because this is the cloth made of low price raw materials. The rise in oil prices has created a thriving situation for textile market in the past two days.

The dust settled and the height dropped.

However, just as the spinning market was in full swing and ready for a big fight, Saudi Arabia had "a proper" basin of cold water. Saudi Arabia's energy minister said in a statement that Saudi Arabia's oil production will resume faster than originally expected, and will return to normal within 2-3 weeks. In the past two days, Saudi Arabia's oil output has recovered more than half, and it will fully recover at the end of September. As news came out, oil prices fell sharply, WTI fell to 59.10, and Brent dropped to 63.80.

Therefore, we can see that after the two days of oil price rise and fall, the market news seems to have settled. The possibility of a sharp rise in oil prices has been very slim, and the price of PX, PTA, polyester staple fibres and other chemical fiber raw materials is also unlikely to increase too much. Speculation is coming and going, and the chemical fiber industry will eventually return to reason and return to fundamentals.

Fig. 1 T32s price chart of polyester staple and pure polyester yarn

As far as pure polyester yarn is concerned, in terms of cost, whether PTA or polyester start up is still high, and various new production capacity is expected to be still strong, and supply pressure is still large. Therefore, under the premise that oil prices are hard to rise, the cost of pure polyester yarn is difficult to support its market. Demand side, the terminal weaving Market is still in recession, orders are generally in general, and the possibility of fundamental improvement in the industry after September is also very small. So in terms of pure polyester yarn, the price of yarn has rebounded in the 9-10 months without significant macro fluctuation, or the price of oil has gone up sharply, but the margin is limited.

conclusion

On the whole, the textile market has been weakening since June, and the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even lighter. Although the oil market "farce" in recent two days has added some variables to the off-season, there has not been much spray. In the case of no improvement in terminal clothing orders, the impact of rising oil prices on the chemical fiber textile industry chain is very limited. Perhaps the short term oil price increase will push up short-term prices of raw materials and yarns, but will eventually fall back because of poor demand. But in today's turbulent macro environment, the market is not sure too much. Often a trend will change the original market direction, and the market still needs to pay close attention to the direction of the macro environment.