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National Bureau Of Statistics: In September, The Official Manufacturing PMI Rose 49.8% Percentage Points To 0.3 Percentage Points.

2019/10/4 12:49:00 0

OfficialManufacturingPMILink RatioPercentage Point

1. Operation of purchasing managers index of China's manufacturing industry

In September 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.8%, higher than that of last month's 0.4 percentage points, and is continuously located in the expansion interval. The PMI of small and medium enterprises is 48.6% and 48.8%, respectively, rising 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

According to the classification index, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point in the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, and the raw material inventory index and the employment index are below the critical point.

Production index was 52.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, which is higher than the critical point, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry has accelerated.

The new order index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from last month to a critical point, indicating an increase in the volume of orders for manufacturing products.

The stock index of raw materials was 47.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, which is below the critical point, indicating a slight narrowing of the stock of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry.

The index of employees is 47%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, which is below the critical point, indicating that the decrease of employment volume in manufacturing enterprises is narrowing.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month, which is above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing material suppliers has accelerated.

Two. Operation of China's non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

In September 2019, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 53.7%, slightly lower than that of last month's 0.1 percentage points, and the non manufacturing industry continued to expand steadily.

According to the industry, the business activity index of the service sector was 53%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the growth of the service industry was accelerated. From the industry category, business activities index of air transport, postal industry, Internet software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries are located in the high economic zone above 58%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. The business activity index of accommodation industry, catering industry, real estate industry and residents' service industry is located in the contraction area. The construction business activity index was 57.6%, down 3.6 percentage points from last month, still located in the high economic zone.

The new order index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, which is higher than the critical point, indicating that the demand for non manufacturing market has increased. According to the industry, the new order index of the service sector was 49.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the construction industry new orders index was 55.1%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month.

The price index of the input products was 52.8%, up 2 percentage points from last month, expanding in the range of expansion, and the price increase of non manufacturing enterprises' input in business activities has been widened. According to the industry, the price index of the service industry input is 52.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry input price index is 52.5%, up 3.6 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 50%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, at the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non manufacturing sales prices remained stable. According to the industry, the sales price index of the service sector was 49.8%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry sales price index was 51.4%, a slight 0.1 percentage point drop from last month.

The index of employees is 48.2%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, and below the critical point, the employment volume of non manufacturing enterprises is decreasing. According to the industry, the index of service industry employees was 47.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry employment index was 51.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from last month.

The business activity expectation index is 59.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, and is still in the relatively high economic zone, indicating that the non manufacturing enterprises are optimistic about the future market development. According to the industry, the service sector business activity index is 59.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry activity activity index is 62%, down 2 percentage points from last month.

Three. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index

In September 2019, the composite PMI output index was 53.1%, slightly higher than last month's 0.1 percentage points, indicating that the production and operation of Chinese enterprises were generally stable.

Note appended

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing industries. It is one of the international leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends. It has strong prediction and early warning effect. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index reflecting the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing industries) in the PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; below 50% reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories, 3000 survey samples, 37 industry categories and 4000 survey samples in the manufacturing industry classification of the national economy (GB/T4754-2017).

3. survey methodology

Purchasing managers investigate the adoption of PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, with manufacturing or non manufacturing industries as the main category, and the sample size of the industry is allocated to the proportion of all manufacturing or non manufacturing added value according to their added value, and the probability of sampling is proportional to the proportion of the main business income in the sample.

The survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of statistics.

4. calculation method

(1) calculation method of classification index. The purchasing management survey index system of manufacturing industry includes production, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, finished goods inventory, purchase quantity, import, main raw material purchase price, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations 13 classification index. Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers survey index system includes business activity, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations and so on 10 sub index. The index of classification is calculated by diffusion index, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same. Because there is no composite index in the non manufacturing sector, the general business activity index is generally used to reflect the overall change of the economic development of the non manufacturing industry.

(2) the calculation method of PMI index in manufacturing industry. Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting the 5 diffusion indices (classification index). The 5 classification index and its weights are determined according to their antecedent impact on the economy. Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is made in the synthetic manufacturing PMI index.

(3) comprehensive PMI output index calculation method. The composite PMI output index is weighted by the manufacturing production index and the non manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries to GDP.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly. The indices now are all seasonally adjusted.

Statistics Bureau interpretation: in September 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index rose, and the non manufacturing business activity index expanded steadily.

In September 30, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index has picked up.

In September, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month. Although it is still below the high and low line, the overall boom has improved since last month. The main characteristics of this month's manufacturing PMI are the expansion of production demand. The new order index was 50.5%, rising 0.8 percentage points in the annulus, and for the first time since May. Production activity has been accelerated, production index is 52.3%, and the annulus ratio has increased by 0.4 percentage points. Manufacturing index of agricultural and sideline food processing, textile and clothing, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other manufacturing industries index is located in the higher economic range of more than 55%. Two, the situation of foreign trade has improved. The new export orders index was 48.2%, a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio. The import index was 47.1%, a 0.4 percentage point increase. The three is the continuous expansion of high-tech manufacturing industry. The PMI of high technology manufacturing industry was 51.3%, higher than PMI1.5 percentage points of manufacturing industry, and it was located in the economic expansion area of more than 51% consecutive 8 months. From the demand situation, the new order index of high-tech manufacturing industry is 53.3%, rising by 0.9 percentage points, and the market is expected to improve. Four, the large and medium-sized enterprises are recovering from different levels. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, and the pulling effect on the recovery of manufacturing industry is outstanding. The PMI of small and medium enterprises was 48.6% and 48.8%, respectively, rebounded by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. From the production situation, the production index of large, medium and small enterprises has increased, and this month is all in the expansion section. Five, business confidence has been strengthened. With a series of policies and measures to support the development of the real economy one after another, the expected production and business activity index of manufacturing enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 54.4%, the highest in the third quarter.

Two. The index of non manufacturing business activity has dropped slightly.

In September, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 53.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing industry continued to expand steadily.

The service industry is booming and steadily rising. The index of business activity in service industry was 53%, up 0.5 percentage points. Driven by the rebound in manufacturing industry, the index of business activities in producer services and logistics industry was 55.5% and 54%, respectively, up 2.6 and 1.8 percentage points respectively. From the industry category, business activities index such as air transport, postal express, Internet software, banking, securities and other industries are located in the high economic zone above 58%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. From the market expectation, the business activity anticipation index is 59.3%, maintains in the higher boom interval, the service enterprise continues to be optimistic to the market development.

The boom in the construction industry has dropped. The construction business activity index was 57.6%, down 3.6 percentage points from last month, still located in the high economic zone. From the industry category, the housing construction industry business activity index is 55.2%, the ring ratio fell 4.1 percentage points; civil engineering construction industry business activity index is 60.9%, lower than last month 3 percentage points. From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 55.1%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating that the market demand growth is stable, and the construction industry in the near future is expected to continue to expand rapidly.

Three, the consolidated PMI output index expanded steadily.

In September, the composite PMI output index was 53.1%, slightly higher than the 0.1 percentage point of last month. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index of the composite PMI output index were 52.3% and 53.7%, respectively.

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