According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of lint 3128B lint in the domestic spot market was 12642 yuan / ton as of October 12, 2019, which was 3.15% lower than that of last month, down 20.99% from last year. China and the US have made good progress in consultations, and cotton production has helped increase prices.
In 2019, the domestic reserve cotton wheel ended at the end of September, and the average price was 12633 yuan / ton. The standard price (3128B) price was 13902 yuan / ton, the highest price was 15930 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 10750 yuan / ton. With the withdrawal of the national cotton store, the pressure on the shipment of the cotton market has decreased correspondingly.
As a result of this Sino US talks, the two sides will reach a partial agreement to make substantial progress in agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rate, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technology transfer and dispute settlement. The two sides discussed the follow-up consultations and agreed to work together towards the final agreement. This news makes the financial market excited, optimism to promote the 11 day cotton futures close to the price limit. Zheng cotton night market rally is good, cotton prices are expected to cater to the market in the short term.
Recently, Pakistan and the United States have successively reduced output, India's total output or substantially lower than expected, raising the price of cotton. In October, the US Department of agriculture forecast the supply and demand of cotton in Pakistan from 1 million 742 thousand tons to 1 million 655 thousand tons, with a reduction of 87 thousand tons in the ratio of annulus, due to the shortage of sowing area, serious pest and bad weather. The Pakistan cotton crop assessment committee (CCAC) reduced cotton production from 15 million packages to 10 million 200 thousand packages (1 million 734 thousand tons) in 2019/20, with a reduction of 33%. Affected by a significant reduction in cotton production, Pakistan needs to import at least 5 million bales of cotton, causing great concern in the international market, and is the backbone of boosting cotton prices.
Domestic cotton yarn, nearly a month cotton prices are basically stable. By the end of October 12th, the average price of single cotton yarn of 21S high quality knitted top quality products in Shandong area was 20720 yuan / ton, down 13.49% compared with the same period last year. The average price of the single yarn of 32S high quality knitted fabric was 21920 yuan / ton, down 12.41% compared with the same period last year. After the holiday, cotton prices were strong and there was a slight upward trend. The manufacturers did not catch a cold. The strategy was still "win in stability".
According to the sampling survey report of China's cotton industry inventory, as early as the beginning of October, the average daily use of cotton in the enterprises surveyed was about 28.1 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 0.5 days, a decrease of 11.6 days compared with the same period last year. Projections of the national cotton industry inventory of about 596 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.1%, a decrease of 35.4% over the same period last year. The cotton industry stock situation is different in the main provinces of the country. The cotton industry inventory in Shaanxi, Hubei and Hebei provinces is relatively large.
Business analysts believe that Sino US negotiations have made substantial progress, and market confidence has doubled. The news of yield reduction is "just right", and the problem of global cotton consumption decline is selectively forgotten by the market. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the near future, but the impact of the cotton market can not be ignored. The problem of falling demand is the ultimate obstacle to rising cotton prices.