Why Is The President Of The Clothing Trade Association Not Boston? Links And Inventory

I run a clothing chain store. The brand is YISHION's casual wear. It is very grateful to the chairman of YISHION Yang Rende. It has been 28 years in this industry. First of all, I think this garment industry is still a more profitable industry than many consumer industries and many service industries.

Maybe this is what we call the "black light", and we know more about it. On the contrary, we feel that the industry's certainty is not high.

01 more links in garment industry

Because there are more links in this industry, the chain from factory to sales to retail is longer. There are many uncontrollable factors in the industry, such as the economic cycle and weak consumption. For example, last year and this year when the overall environment was weak, I think the industry is still very problematic.

An economic cycle, a consumer purchasing power environment is a problem. There is also a very fatal weather. The weather is very serious for the clothing industry. Many of the factory headquarters are scheduled production capacity. After the scheduled production capacity, the following retailers will place an order in advance, take the goods back, but the weather factor is also an uncontrollable factor.

For example, in the first half of this summer, the temperature is obviously low in many areas in summer. When the heat is not hot, the problem is coming. Your production capacity is planned ahead of schedule, not only by the cycle, but also by the retailers ordering goods in advance and buying their own stores. It's not hot when it's hot, and it's not cold when it's cold. This is a big risk.

Many products in the consumer industry are not affected by the weather cycle. For example, Zhou Dafu and Zhou Shengsheng are not affected by the weather and have nothing to do with the weather. The clothing industry also has a headache problem, and it is also an uncontrollable factor. Once the sale is not as good as expected, the stock will be backlog immediately.

02 questions about inventory

As we all know, the problem of inventory in clothing industry is rather fatal, because sometimes it is making money on the books, but once the inventory comes out, you may swallow up all your profits.

But the stock of wine is no problem, the more valuable it is, the more fragrant it is, the longer the inventory cycle, the better the original wine, so inventory is not a problem for him. What is the problem with gold, jewellery and gold shop inventory? That is to occupy funds. There is no big problem. The stock of clothing sometimes depreciates sharply in one season, and it can be counted to zero in two seasons.

So generally speaking, the raceway of the clothing industry is generally, I think it belongs to an industry that makes a lot of money, which is a qualitative analysis of this industry.

03 what excellent companies are there?

Of course, there are some excellent companies in the industry, and a few excellent companies. There are three types of companies, namely, the three level companies. I judge from the perspective of the whole industry.

The first class companies, the excellent entities that do well, have cultural attributes. A brand represents culture, leading a trend and leading some of our life's needs.

For example, Adidas (PINK:ADDYY), Nike (NYSE:NKE), I think there is a brand culture. This company is no longer a product company. It is a mood of leisure and comfort for people to dress comfortably and freely. ADI Nike is the first class company, excellent and stable, long-term development is good.

The second category, the cultural attribute is not so strong. However, a company that wins the price by product is a company that performs the best price performance. The typical representative is UNIQLO, which has a high cost performance. But now it can not be said to be any culture. It is still a little worse than ADI and Nike.

In China's A shares listed companies, I think Anta (HK:02020) product market positioning is to seize the needs of people to relax life, now people's rhythm of life is fast, the pressure is relatively large, Anta represents a healthy and relaxed life.

Anta's operation and management is relatively good, and it is obvious to all in the industry. Moreover, his business status is relatively good, in China's clothing companies are relatively good representatives, the management system is also relatively sound.

Lining (HK:02331) looked at the big gains in recent years, and the business has improved. But this company should be called dilemma reversal. The company has made great progress in recent years under the leadership of Lining, and the company has gradually stepped out of its predicament. However, I doubt the operation and management of this company and the ability to control and control market risks in the future. We need to strengthen our observation. Compared with Anta, I am more optimistic about Anta's sustainable development.

Another kind of company is Be Meleven, who produces golf clothes. (SZ:002832) The product of this clothing company is simple and generous, it gives people a very relaxed feeling, and can also dress in business activities. I think the company is doing well.

There is also a company that is a stealth champion in market segmentation. We can pay attention to it, that is, Semir clothing (SZ:002563). The three quarterly report is not as good as expected. I think this company is a hidden champion. You may not know enough about him. Semir clothing is an adult suit. Similar to YISHION, Metersbonwe and JEANSWEST.

But the biggest bright spot and worth looking forward to is that its children's clothing, called Barbara's children's wear, is now the first place in the nation's children's clothing. It belongs to the first tier one in the country.

Balbala now accounts for more than 60% of the listed company's sales in Semir, close to 2/3, and the adult casual wear accounts for only about 1/3 of the sales profit.

As a matter of fact, I think the listed company is not as good as Barbara. Its stock price may still be more than this share price. So the biggest aspect of the company and the future worth tracking and digging is the potential of the children's hidden champion.

04 companies and reasons that are not optimistic

In the above categories, some friends invest in clothes or invest in this industry. This is a reference company for you. This kind of investment must track the changes of the operation of the latter company, because the competition in this industry is too intense and intense. That is, Nike, ADI, a company that dominates the cultural attributes of the company, leads the cultural moat to a deeper level. Other companies are not deep in moat.

Another kind of clothing companies, such as the Hai Lan family and YOUNGOR, which are relatively large in weight, strictly speaking, YOUNGOR is not a pure clothing company. It can be regarded as a commercial real estate company, and La Natsu Bell, a woman's dress, and a company of Hui Jie of underwear. I don't think it's worth tracking.

SH:600398's products are too formal, and their clothing can no longer satisfy the needs of modern people's health, relaxation, pleasure and comfortable and casual clothes. It represents an era, and this era has passed. Nowadays, people do not have to wear a good appearance, but they must wear themselves comfortably, and this kind of company can develop well in the industry.

I don't think it's worth tracking for the older ones who haven't kept pace with the times and trends. For example, men's clothing, especially a group of men's clothing in Fujian, the seven wolves, seven cards, dancing with wolves, and powerful bullets, which are similar to Hai Lan's home, I think their time has passed, and now is a personalized era, and these companies are too homogeneous and too serious in style.

05 about children's wear market

Since the second child was released, many brands have been making efforts. The children's clothing market will be able to play a leading role. Ultimately, it will see who has the comprehensive ability of evolution and all aspects.

06 questions and answers

Q1: Consult Peng, how does Semir's Barbara children's clothing resist competition from foreign clothing brands such as Zara, UNIQLO, h&m, and Taobao Tmall's many small private brand children's clothing? Depends on design? Cost performance? Fabric material or channel?

A1: Barbara's children's clothing is now playing a leading role in the development and channel construction of children's clothing industry. I understand that Qiu's person has strong development ability and operation ability.

Of course, the development capacity is not absolute. Now many brands are developing children's clothing, for example, Anta has children's clothing, many brands are developing children's clothing, balbala's current ability to open channels is only a temporary lead.

This industry is doomed to be an industry of white hot competition, and the moat is shallow. In the end, who can win is not necessarily.

As the president of the two industrial and Commercial Chamber of the provinces and cities, I may not be optimistic about this industry. I prefer to take an objective view of the industry I am engaged in. I think the companies that are better than our industry are really excellent business models and excellent companies.

Investment should respect objective laws, and people who are not in the industry will have too much affection for this industry. Investment is not like doing entities in this respect, but doing things in a certain scale will have a certain scale of emotion, human relationship and employee relationship. But I think we should find a better industry, objectively look at investment opportunities, find opportunities for certainty, and have so many good choices, why not choose good ones.

Q2: can you talk about the business models, industries and companies that you think are good?

A2: I also focus on investing in consumer companies, the current focus of the track, one, white wine, two, public food, three, medical services. I am a Chinese liquor, the middle city of Golden Triangle, Luzhou people. Have a certain understanding of alcohol. I currently hold three categories of representative companies, Moutai, five grains, Haitian flavor, and AI ophthalmology. There is one branch of finance, China Ping An.

In my understanding, in fact, the medical service AI eye department can also be considered as a consumer unit, and the four consumer stocks in my position are also the scope that my competence circle can understand.

Q3: Peng, can you comment on Bosideng?

A3: Bosideng (HK:03998) specializes in down coats. Actually, it is a competitor who sells down garments in the second half of the year. We are familiar with this company and are familiar with its products. There are many shops that are next door to us or on a street.

I think Bosideng is doing well. The down jacket industry is the champion. The price performance of his down jacket and the products developed are good. Indeed, I think the company still has some unique place.

But this company has a problem. I always think he did not solve it, that is, it did well in the down jacket, but he did not sell the down jacket in spring, summer and autumn. The company has not solved this cross cycle problem, so the development of the company is still limited. But this is his ability circle. He can only make down clothes, and he can't do anything else.

Bosideng is a very good subcategory in the down jacket category, but compared with Anta, Anta can catch the consumption demand of people in every season, spring and summer, autumn and winter, and Boston only has down garments. This label is too serious. Nobody buys your stuff in spring and summer and autumn. If you rent a pavement, you will lose money.

Bosideng cross cycle, cross season cycle is not resolved. Its channels are always unstable. If you rent a shop, it will be short term in the market, short term rent in the autumn and winter. After three months, four months later, you can't do it and throw it out again. So I think that the stability of the channel is not good enough.

And the stability of Anta channel and the market's stability expectation for this network construction, if the power down clothing, I think it should be better than many brands.

So I think some of the company's moat comes from the network construction, the stability and viscosity of the channel construction. Or control of the channel is also one of the most important moat of an enterprise.

For example, Haitian flavor industry channel construction is very fierce, from inside the province to the city and then inside the county town. All of them have his sales network, so I think it is more powerful. I have some personal understanding of the importance of the construction of chain store channels. new product Directly on the channel, sales efficiency will soon be generated.

Q4: Bosideng can still develop so well under such unfavorable conditions. Is it because other enterprises have ignored the high margin category or other reasons? Is the production barrier of down jacket higher than other categories?

A4: down garment is not ignored by other manufacturers, and there are many down coats, but Bosideng may be a long-term accumulation. Then the development and development of goods. personnel The facilities are better and more professional than many brands.

Bosteng can only do well in one season all year round, and the 3 seasons are deserted. Then the channel construction is extremely unstable, the control power is not strong, can not be firm, I personally think that Bosideng products do well, product development is also very professional, but those two points are its shortcomings and weaknesses.

Unless globalization focuses on down jacket, in the global environment, there are many countries, lots of people and lots of cold places. He can open this gap. In the whole world, we can also focus on down garments.

Q5: do you have any concerns about women's clothing, grace?

A5: we know that this company is not very optimistic, and its competitiveness is not strong.

Q6: which of the costumes is better?

A6: one, Nike, ADI, two, UNIQLO, three, Anta, bill, and Semir children's wear. Competitiveness from strong to weak.

[sharing person: Peng Xiaohua, by Tai Wan Hui value investment club.