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Beijing Second-Hand Housing Market Survey: Transaction Warming, Price Reduction Less Cold Winter Is Over?

2020/1/4 8:39:00 0

BeijingSecond-Hand HousingMarket SurveyTransactionPrice ReductionCold Winter

Beginning in November 2019, "North drift" Xiao Yang on the East Fifth Ring Road outside the city of Beijing Ding Fu area, just after obtaining the purchase qualification, she hopes to buy a small apartment of second-hand housing for self occupation.

"Recently, the news of price reduction has obviously decreased." Xiao Yang said that in mid and late 11, she could receive information about the price reduction almost every day. "Sometimes I receive several items a day". But by December, "only a few days will be able to receive one."

Since the second half of 2019, the secondary housing market, which accounts for more than 8 of Beijing's property market volume, has been in a doldrums. From July 2019 to November, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing declined for the five consecutive month, the longest decline period since 2018. According to the twenty-first Century economic report, the price reduction phenomenon became the mainstream from October to November, and the adjustment ranges from 30 thousand to 50 thousand to hundreds of thousands. Some eager to sell luxury projects, the price range can be reduced to one million.

But by the end of 2019, the market began to show slight changes. Shell Research Institute data show that in December 2019, the secondary housing industry in Beijing raised the price tag phenomenon, accounting for 1.8 points increased, reaching 11.8%. Although the behavior of downgrading is still mainstream, it has declined. This is quite consistent with Xiao Yang's intuitive feelings.

What causes the change? Can it be regarded as a harbinger of Beijing's second-hand housing market?

From July 2019 to November, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing declined for five consecutive months. - Song Wenhui diagram

Average price cut exceeds 130 thousand

For Xiao Yang's argument, Xiao Wang, a salesman of chain home real estate, has similar feelings. He told the twenty-first Century economic report that the recent reduction of quotations in the region's housing sector, though still mainstream, has decreased.

Xiao Wang speculated that it might be because the current price has touched some of the owners' bottom line. "In the first few months, when the transaction is bad, the owners will drop tens of thousands of thousands of dollars. Some houses have fallen by 2.3 million, and some have fallen by 4.5 million, and the owners do not want to drop any more."

"A house has been hung for half a year, and the owner has reduced several times off and on, and has withdrawn in the middle, which has dropped by about 400000. Recently, when we communicated with the owners, his attitude was more firm, and he said he could not drop any more. It was already very low. Xiao Wang said.

According to data from 58 cities and residents, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has dropped for 6 consecutive months since July 2019. Among them, the average listing price in December 2019 was 58570 yuan / square meter, which was 2.6% lower than that in June. Beijing second-hand housing average area of 85 square meters of calculation, the average price of single set of second-hand housing in Beijing dropped more than 130 thousand yuan.

Another reason for the reduction of the quotation is probably the rebound in volume.

Xiao Wang said that since the middle of 12, the volume of second-hand housing in its area has been active. "Many owners have seen it for a long time before, and feel that the price can be accepted, so they are ready to sell."

According to statistics of Shell Research Institute, in December 2019, the number of second-hand housing net signed in Beijing was 14162 sets, a rise of 15% over the past two months. This level is the third highest monthly point in 2019, second only to March and April in the "little spring" period.

The agency also pointed out that in December 2019, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing dropped from 72 to 64, indicating that buyers' wait-and-see sentiment eased slightly. But the business cycle of the owners is still about 90 days, which is in a longer cycle.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that after April last year, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions were in a slump, and the demand for the backlog was released at the end of the year, which led to the market's warming. I love my family also pointed out that to a large extent, the second-hand housing heating up at the end of the year is just the normal fluctuation of the market. After the "small spring", the market went down all the way, until the end of the year, prices stabilized and there was little room for further reduction.

This warming has also contributed to a slight increase in transaction prices. Shell Research Institute data show that in December 2019, the average price of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing was 59126 yuan / square meter, a slight increase of 1%, a slight increase of 0.9% over the same period last year.

It's hard to turn into a warming up.

If the 2017 "317 New Deal" is the boundary, the second-hand housing market in Beijing can be roughly divided into two sections. Official data show that, before the "317 New Deal" in 2016, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing exceeded 270 thousand sets. After three years (from 2017 to 2019), the scale of second-hand housing transactions was 150 thousand sets and nearly cut.

According to shell Research Institute data, three years after the new deal, the average price of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing has not changed significantly, and fluctuated around the unit price of 60 thousand yuan / square meter. And in the second half of 2019, the price dropped to 58 thousand yuan per square meter.

Respondents generally believe that this is mainly due to the impact of limited competition housing.

The limited competition housing is a house that is auctioned off by the way of "limiting the price of the house and competing for the land price". From the end of 2017, Beijing began to sell the restricted housing plots on a large scale, and the restricted competition projects began to enter the market from the middle of 2018. In 2019, 37 thousand new houses were sold in Beijing, accounting for 17% of the city's new housing transactions. Among them, the limited competition room 25 thousand sets of transactions, become the main body of the new housing market.

Due to the restriction on the price of housing at the stage of land leasing, the sale price of restricted competition rooms is usually lower than the market level of the same region. In 2019, many of the projects restricted to the market were located in the superior location of the five rings, which improved the phenomenon of "suburbanization of new houses" to a certain extent, and also brought impact on second-hand housing in the region.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said, "as long as there is a restricted competition project in the region, it is easy to shunt the volume of the whole area and will also lower the average price." He believes that in recent months, Beijing second-hand housing quotes continued to decline, precisely because of the restricted competition room "blowout" type of supply and turnover.

Nevertheless, considering that Beijing has implemented the most stringent regulatory policy in the country, it is still more difficult for buyers to buy houses.

According to the current policy, the lowest down payment ratio for the first suite in Beijing is 3.5, and the lowest down payment rate for two suites is 6. In second-hand housing transactions, the assessment price is generally lower than the housing quotes, and most secondary housing prices have exceeded the level of ordinary residential, so the actual down payment ratio is often higher. For example, in actual transactions, the down payment ratio of two suites is usually over 7 of the price.

Shell Research Institute pointed out that in 2019 the proportion of people aged over 40 in Beijing was 50%, while the proportion in 2016 was only 36%. Double down payment is not only changing the age of the house, but also getting worse. In 2019, the average area of the apartments increased by 16.6 square meters, which was smaller than that before the regulation of 19 square meters. It can be seen that "changing rooms is not only difficult but also can not be changed".

For the recent slight increase in second-hand housing transactions, the industry generally believe that does not mean that the market will enter the warmer passageway.

I love my family, pointing out that the recent market recovery has not exceeded the scope of the previous two years. In addition, the Beijing property market policy has not been lighten up, and the demand for housing to enter the market is still mainly based on rigid demand. Their ability to boost market volume and price is limited, and there is no room for substantial warming in the market.

Shell Research Institute also believes that Beijing's second-hand housing market has entered the fourth year of regulation and control, and there will not be much relaxation in policy. The contradiction between supply and demand of the market is greatly eased and the market is expected to be stable. Beijing second-hand housing market will continue to stabilize the low position. It is estimated that the volume of second-hand housing in 2020 will remain stable at around 150 thousand units, and the price fluctuation will be less than 5%.

 

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